Wagner Exit Left

[JJ_BPK]

I think this is not good?

Wagner was carrying a large load for Vlad. A load, the Ruskies, will not be able to fill.

Vlad could get pushed into making some terrible decisions.

2 hr 11 min ago
Wagner to leave Bakhmut on May 10 over lack of ammunition, Prigozhin says

From CNN's Uliana Pavlova

Quote: “I am officially addressing the Chief of the General Staff, the Minister of Defense, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the people of Russia,” Prigozhin said in a statement posted to the Telegram messaging app.

"I declare on behalf of the Wagner fighters, on behalf of the Wagner command, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the Defense Ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds," Prigozhin said.

“I'm withdrawing Wagner PMC units because without ammunition, they are doomed to a senseless death,” he continued, claiming that Wagner had fallen “out of favour with envious near-military bureaucrats."

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news...083ff4747a51bb

[Box]

That is a very interesting and very odd release. Take a step back and give this a slightly different context...

Academi chief executive Erik Prince announced on Friday that his private military company would leave their posts in Iraq and Afghanistan on May 10 because of a lack logistical support.

“I am officially addressing the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretary of Defense, the Theater Commander, the President, and the people of the United States,” Prince said in a statement posted to the company's social media site.
"I declare on behalf of the Academi contractors and on behalf of Academi executives, that on May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions across the theater back to the conventional military units. We will withdraw the remains of our contractor security force from the theater to refit and reconstitute our force," Prince said.
“I'm withdrawing Academi PMC units because without logistical support from deployed US forces, they are doomed to a senseless death,” he continued, claiming that Academi had fallen “out of favor with US bureaucrats."

It comes a day after the Academi chief executive launched an expletive-laden tirade against Americas military leadership. Standing in front of the bodies of dozens of what he claims are his security contractors killed in the war on terror, Prince blamed their deaths on a lack of support from the USA.

Princes security contractors have played a key role in convoy security, camp defense, and intelligence support to numerous US agencies throughout the region.

Sure - we had some hiccups with contract support during that brief skirmish in the middle east - but even when things got really uncomfortable, at worst, the contract agencies would simply change their corporate name, or just rebid the contract.

"Hey, fuck you, we're out!"
Packing up your shit and going home is a completely different ballgame. Blackwater literally suffered having their guys killed and dragged through the streets on TV and they didn't go home. As visions of dollar signs danced in their heads, they continued to march.
...they totally were NOT mercenaries - we don't do mercenaries

Having such a force pulled from the battlefield with such fanfare throws a huge curve ball at things. For one - it almost demands that the Russians "escalate" to fill the void.
When a force that is visibly more competent than the conscripts that are serving for the motherland are suddenly pulled from the battlefield to "lick their wounds" and refit - this gives Russia a very easy path to "escalation" right as they roll into the spring offensive season. Pull a few hundred well trained mercenar...
-Pull a few hundred well trained private security contractors off the battle field and replace them with a few thousand meat sticks. Wars of attrition don't really need "good" troops - wars of attrition need a lot of troops.

Then, after the human wave of meat sticks have forced the defending army to expend stockpiles of logistics, maybe the mercenar...
- Then, after the human wave of meat sticks have forced the defending army to expend stockpiles of logistics, maybe the private security contractor force can resurrect their relationship with the bureaucrats and go back to maneuvering against a tired and depleted defending force.


It'll be fine.

[MR2]

Excellent point(s) Box

[Airbornelawyer]

Wagner has for some time been replenishing its ranks by recruiting from Russian prisons. It is hardly still the elite force it has long portrayed itself as, albeit still better trained and/or motivated than the average army conscript.

In Bakhmut, as in Vuhledar to the south, the Ukrainians have essentially allowed the Russians to waste a lot of resources on what is turning out to be a fairly inconsequential chunk of land. Meanwhile, the Russian general staff has finally realized that putting more resources in won't lead to a breakthrough in the Dombas, and will leave the Russians weakened if the Ukrainians do manage to launch their expected next counteroffensive.

Another problem with pouring more resources into one small part of the front is that they genuinely don't know where the Ukrainians might choose to attack. They might try to force a river crossing in Kherson and drive toward Crimea, also cutting off the launch facilities for a lot of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian rear. They might drive south in Zaporizhia oblast either toward Melitopol or Mariupol, cutting off the land route to Crimea. Or they might push eastward anywhere along the front in Luhansk and Donetsk. Or any combination thereof.

Meanwhile, Chechen paramilitaries are supposed to replace the Wagner Group in Bakhmut, which reinforces the idea that the Russian Army itself does not place great strategic significance on that piece of land.