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Old 06-18-2022, 17:52   #76
Badger52
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This is not an SNL skit

Linky thing here.

Lithuania May Have Lit the Fuse on World War III
18 June 2022 by Larry Johnson

In a move of staggering stupidity and hubris, Lithuania banned the transit of Russian goods to Kaliningrad effective today, June 18, 2022. Kaliningrad, which is wedged between Poland on the west and Lithuania on the east, is home to almost a half-million Russians and the headquarters for the Russian Navy’s Baltic Sea force [less the Red October]

Lithuania claims it is simply abiding by the sanctions imposed by the European Union. After all, Lithuania is a member of the European Union and NATO. But that is the point. This is a deliberate provocation. It is laying economic siege to a vital interest of Russia. While there is no immediate danger to the Russian population of Kaliningrad, this is a flash point that could lead to an actual war as opposed to a special military operation.

What is the difference between a special military operation and war? In the SMO you leave communications, electrical infrastructure, transportation infrastructure and fuel depots largely intact. In the SMO you try to minimized civilian and military casualties.

War on the other hand is terrifying. If Russia opts for a war footing, the restraint that characterized its activities in Ukraine will be replaced by a full on attack on key military installations and assets in the region as well as the destruction of the communications, electrical, transportation and fuel resources of the adversary. This probably includes taking out critical satellite communications and intelligence collection systems of the United States and Europe.

Kaliningrad, formerly known as Königsberg, was put under Soviet control in 1945 according to the terms of the Potsdam Agreement, which was backed by the United States and Great Britain. The Russian people paid blood for this land in 1945 and are not going to relinquish it in the face of bullying or threats from the west. If you are going to poke a angry bear with a stick, you better be damn sure that bear is locked up and can’t get you. Russia sure as hell is not secure in a cage.
----

This is like where Charlie Sheen's character beans the next batter after giving up a grand slam, and his manager mutters, "Interesting..."
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File Type: jpg kaliningrad.jpg (64.3 KB, 24 views)
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Last edited by Badger52; 06-19-2022 at 05:02. Reason: correct place name spelling
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Old 06-18-2022, 18:42   #77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Badger52 View Post

Lithuania claims it is simply abiding by the sanctions imposed by the European Union. After all, Lithuania is a member of the European Union and NATO.
Unless Lithuania is going rogue can we assume that both Nato and the EU concur? Without backing Lithuania is a squished bug.

Ruskies have long wanted those three mini-states on the Baltic as their deep open water access(as opposed to their mostly ice-bound ports)
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Old 06-18-2022, 19:55   #78
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Most Americans have no idea of the special status of Kaliningrad.

Like Alaska, it is a part of the home country, but not physically connected with the home country via adjacent land borders.
The only way in or out is by air or sea with a long detour route,
or to have permission to travel/fly over another countries land/airspace.

Well, for Kaliningrad, that permission just ended.

Example: If Canada closed its airspace and overland routes to Alaska,
Alaska would be no less a State of the United States,
but road and rail commerce would come to a halt.

That would leave a roundabout sea route out into the north Pacific and back in again, same roundabout flight paths for air travel and air commerce.
Add hundreds of miles, and double the expenses.

There are only three countries adjacent to Kaliningrad: Poland lies to the west, Lithuania and Latvia (seriatim) to
the east, and all three are NATO members. Estonia, to the north of Latvia,
is also a member of NATO.

What used to be a simple day road trip or rail trip of 300 miles or so to
travel from mother Russia to Kaliningrad
has now become a 600 mile sea trip around the Baltic Sea from
St. Petersburg to (the city of) Kaliningrad.

The flight path from Moscow to Kaliningrad doubles, becoming an "around the infield from first base to
home plate" route of over 1,000 miles.

Putin's fellow dictator from Belarus can't be any help, due to a 41 mile gap from the northwest
border of Belarus to the southeast border of Kaliningrad.

Lithuania just made a major international move ... "CHECK."
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File Type: pdf Map.pdf (45.5 KB, 18 views)

Last edited by CSB; 06-18-2022 at 20:12.
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Old 06-19-2022, 05:16   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJ_BPK View Post
Unless Lithuania is going rogue can we assume that both Nato and the EU concur? Without backing Lithuania is a squished bug.

Ruskies have long wanted those three mini-states on the Baltic as their deep open water access(as opposed to their mostly ice-bound ports)
Since the recent NATO meet in Vilnius, the rhetoric seems to be solidifying on that end. An example from the West Germans:

Quote:
VILNIUS - The West will not accept peace terms dictated by Russia and it will have to withdraw its army from Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in Vilnius on Tuesday.

"We will definitely not accept a peace dictated by Russia, we will not accept such a peace. It is, therefore, very important and clear to us that the result of this military situation will be that Russia will have to withdraw its troops and that Ukraine will defend its independence," he told a press conference in Vilnius.

Russian President Vladimir Putin's military aggression has only achieved the goal of further uniting Western allies, the German chancellor pointed out.

"What Putin has achieved is that NATO has become even more united, that NATO is further strengthening its capabilities, and we are strengthening NATO's eastern flank near the Baltic Sea, and that Sweden and Finland have decided to become NATO members. So this is what Putin's military aggression has achieved: we are becoming even stronger", the German chancellor said.
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Old 06-19-2022, 17:37   #80
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If NATO has become “more” united after recent developments then NATO should be afraid…. very very afraid.

The US will not commit military forces not already in country to defend any NATO country.
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Old 07-03-2022, 03:46   #81
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Cooler heads prevailing?

Maybe someone played the hypothetical tape all the way through.
Quote:
01.07.2022
EU Sanctions Commission to Allow Russia to Resume Transports to Kaliningrad
The European Commission plans to issue a clarification that will allow Russia to resume sending supplies to the exclave of Kaliningrad via Lithuania. Berlin supports the idea, but some in Vilnius are not pleased.

It is a dispute that goes beyond a mere confrontation between the European Union and Russia. Should Moscow be allowed to transport goods like steel and aluminum through EU member state Lithuania to the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad – even though those goods are on the sanctions list?

DER SPIEGEL has learned that the European Commission intends to publish a clarification on the issue in the coming days. Its key message will be that Moscow will be allowed to use the transit route for all goods, but only limited amounts.

Full article at Link here.
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Old 07-03-2022, 12:33   #82
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I used to think like this but . . .

Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick View Post
If NATO has become “more” united after recent developments then NATO should be afraid…. very very afraid.

The US will not commit military forces not already in country to defend any NATO country.
with the latest democrat azzhole's war, I think he will order troops east eventually.
Roosevelt played the same with Imperial Japan invading Manchuria. How did that work out. Let's ask those sailors entombed in the USS Arizona. To sum up:

WW 1 Wilson - democrat
WW 2 Roosevelt - democrat
Korea Truman - democrat
Vietnam Kenedy - democrat
Gulf War Bush - republican (we kinda won that one)
Iraq Bush - republican, because Bush 1 didn't get it done
Afghanistan Bush - republican, a direct attach on America

We are due. Xiden wants to support Ukraine so that all the bullshit that he and his fellow pols were pulling in Ukraine, not just financial but hey Fauci was giving cash to Red China, who knows what they were fvcking around with in Ukraine. Slave Ukrani!

Biden's war is next up. Place your bets.

Happy fourth to all that have served, and prayers to those that will be sent for Biden's War.
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Old 07-03-2022, 13:25   #83
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Oh, I hear you, Democrats love war. Just look at how many Obama/Clinton started or (withdrew from in failure).

On the heels of Bythen approving a permanent rotation of troops to Poland he’s creating a speed bump for the start of WW3 and with the new addition of Sweden and Finland to NATO, I’m afraid pushing Putin into a corner is only going to embolden him to move large amounts of military equipment and troops to his western front. Get ready for “Cold War 2” (unless it goes “hot”)

Guess it’s time again to move the “doomsday clock” closer to “Midnight” another Democrat is in office! Like the pseudo “RINOs” G.H.W.B. and son G.W.B., I’m sure J.R.B. would be especially happy to become a “Wartime President” even if they have to start the war in the first place.
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Old 07-03-2022, 19:44   #84
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Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick View Post
I’m sure J.R.B. would be especially happy to become a “Wartime President” even if they have to start the war in the first place.
Oh indeed, you bet. Somewhere in Foggy Bottom there's probably a TS SPECAT cable that says, "Oh, yes, we concur that if you leak (through the CCP) that you're all ready to accept UKR into NATO - Putin will go absolutely batshit crazy, even when he knows that Turkey would never agree. He would make a move on UKR."
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Old 07-23-2022, 04:58   #85
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For now, grain can move

It would appear (if AP is to be trusted) that grain will be able to be moved through the Black Sea.

Quote:
Ukraine, Russia sign U.N. deal to export grain on Black Sea
By AYSE WIETING and SUZAN FRASER, Associated Press
Posted: July 22, 2022 9:31 AM
Updated: July 23, 2022 5:36 AM

ISTANBUL (AP) — Russia and Ukraine signed separate agreements Friday with Turkey and the United Nations clearing the way for exporting millions of tons of desperately needed Ukrainian grain — as well as Russian grain and fertilizer — ending a wartime standoff that had threatened food security around the globe.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov signed separate deals with U.N. Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. The ceremony in Istanbul was witnessed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

“Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea,” Guterres said. “A beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief in a world that needs it more than ever.”

“You have overcome obstacles and put aside differences to pave the way for an initiative that will serve the common interests of all,” he said, addressing the Russian and Ukrainian representatives.

The deal will enable Ukraine to export 22 million tons of grain and other agricultural products that have been stuck in Black Sea ports due to the war.
FULL article at this link
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Old 09-12-2022, 23:04   #86
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Interesting article.
The modern battlefield is complex.

https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...ooking_up.html
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Old 09-13-2022, 15:46   #87
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As many of you may remember, in 1995, after the surprising (to most observers) success of the Croatian counteroffensives recapturing virtually all of the Srpska Krajina in Croatia and linking up with Bosnian forces in the Bihać pocket, the Bosnian and Bosnian Croats launched a counteroffensive of their own. Prior to the offensive, the Bosnian Serbs had controlled about 70% of Bosnia, but they were threatened with similar dramatic losses. The Bosnian Serbs and their Serb backers immediately went to the negotiating table, resulting in the Dayton agreement which locked in Serb control of about 50% of Bosnia (even though Bosnian Serbs account for just over 30% of the population).

The Bosnian Muslim, Bosnian Croat and Croatian armies had the initiative on the ground, but they were dependent on Western support. Therefore, the US, the EU and other supporters had leverage, which they used to force the Bosnian Muslims and Croats to agree, giving up some recaptured territory in the process.

If the current Ukrainian counteroffensives continue to make gains, I wonder if a similar process will play out. Putin may conclude that the costs of escalating in response are too high, and content himself with trying to lock in current gains, which include most of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson oblasts, as well as Crimea. This would allow him to claim victory with a land corridor to Crimea and control of most of the potentially resource-rich Donbas. Putin could use alleviating the current European/global energy crisis by reopening pipelines as a carrot to encourage the West to use their leverage over Ukraine to bring Kyiv to the negotiating table.

Of course, the Ukrainian counteroffensives could stall as their supply lines get stretched and as weather worsens. If so, it may be back to the battles of attrition and incremental gains and losses we've seen over the past few months.
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Old 09-13-2022, 18:31   #88
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Originally Posted by Airbornelawyer View Post
Of course, the Ukrainian counteroffensives could stall as their supply lines get stretched and as weather worsens.
Whole post worth reading 2x. Fine post. To the above, of course whether their lines are stretched or challenges are weather-driven, the other thing is that the big "We" can probably make that thing stall at will.
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Old 09-25-2022, 17:58   #89
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Interesting to get this particular insight into geo-political issues from a psychologist.

Perhaps Putin had an exit strategy that allowed for “failure”.
Scorched earth tactics are pretty standard for Russia.

In the big picture, the strategic preconditions were what mattered (energy dependence).
On Piers Morgan’s face, you can see the gradual realization of all of the inevitable consequences.

Sometimes the only choices are bad and worse.
https://youtu.be/hAqWOMmgTUY
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Old 09-25-2022, 20:00   #90
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^
Not a big fan of Pierce but what the guest is saying really resonates with me. When one considers this explanation https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l6tSqGCfoCI along with what some of our politicians have been up to ; Al Gore https://financialpost.com/news/how-a...798151a0c/amp/ , Nancy Pelosi https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pel...k-congress.amp along with the rest of the liberal global warming cabal. In essence they would have us shoot our selves while they get rich. It’s pathetic so many have the wool pulled over their eyes.

I’m pretty sure people who are looking at things with their eyes open don’t need me to undermine the current administration, my point is that truth and transparency is not a hallmark currently. The narration is not what is happening. How does this relate to Russia and Ukraine? We know that Ukraine had some issues before Russia invaded that involved the Current administration, I certainly don’t support the invasion but am increasingly concerned about the narrative based on a complete lack of credibility in my eyes. There seems to be the all to familiar and concerning drift going on. If one has time, and many of you have your own insights, here is a counter point and some challenges to the current narrative:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lkg4kN6pC6s
YMMV
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