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Old 02-27-2022, 14:04   #1
GratefulCitizen
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What are the Russian objectives in Ukraine?

The information war is in full swing.
Propaganda rules the airwaves.

Putin may be evil, but he’s not stupid.
Regardless of how it’s spun, Russia has its own purposes in invading Ukraine.

What might those purposes be?

One purpose was probably to fully secure the Crimean peninsula.
-They turned on the water again yesterday (removed the dam blocking the north Crimean canal).
-They’ve annexed nearby territory.

Another purpose might be to discourage/delay foreign investment in the development of oil/gas in Ukraine.
That’s probably been achieved.

Another purpose might be to demonstrate willingness to go to war rather than allow Ukraine to join NATO.
That’s been achieved.

Yet another purpose might be to drive up the price of energy.
That’s been achieved.

If Russia can secure certain terms for peace and gain control over critical territory, they may quickly end this and withdraw from most of Ukraine.
They’ll pay a big price, but is the price worth paying if it serves their long-term objectives?

The propaganda war may not be revealing Russia’s true objectives.
Time will tell.
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Old 02-27-2022, 19:48   #2
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Another purpose might be to demonstrate willingness to go to war rather than allow Ukraine to join NATO.
That’s been achieved.
Maybe not.

NATO never should have presented membership to Ukraine, and Ukraine never should have contemplated membership. It was a no go day 1 for Putin, openly stated by him.

The invasion has now effected the social cohesion of Ukrainians, united them in a single national sprit, one that Putin never foresaw.

That error and the worlds reaction, including the Russian citizen condemnation and arrest, is forcing Putin in a corner. If he continues the onslaught, as death and destruction mount, he loses for certain the SM battle, which up to now has been the NATO issue. With the new Ukraine mind set on sovereignty or death, Putin has to accept total war in Ukraine, or an understanding of coexistence with a new sovereign Ukraine, one spiritually united against Russian dominance that will never go away. Putin has created an insurgency and his own isolation.

I would not be surprised if he fell suddenly ill.

Last edited by Penn; 02-27-2022 at 19:52.
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Old 02-28-2022, 00:08   #3
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Maybe not.

NATO never should have presented membership to Ukraine, and Ukraine never should have contemplated membership. It was a no go day 1 for Putin, openly stated by him.

The invasion has now effected the social cohesion of Ukrainians, united them in a single national sprit, one that Putin never foresaw.

That error and the worlds reaction, including the Russian citizen condemnation and arrest, is forcing Putin in a corner. If he continues the onslaught, as death and destruction mount, he loses for certain the SM battle, which up to now has been the NATO issue. With the new Ukraine mind set on sovereignty or death, Putin has to accept total war in Ukraine, or an understanding of coexistence with a new sovereign Ukraine, one spiritually united against Russian dominance that will never go away. Putin has created an insurgency and his own isolation.

I would not be surprised if he fell suddenly ill.
Agreed.

There should have been more formal, rather than just verbal, agreement on NATO expansion east, including consideration for more Austria/Finland/Sweden friendly semi-alignment to keep from cornering Russia like a psychotic nuclear armed sh!t-house rat.

And following the Reagan doctrine of never letting those pipelines be built.

In having said that, while I can sympathise with Russia’s position from a clinical perspective, Putin’s seemingly irrational choice of near total war is completely unacceptable.
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Old 02-28-2022, 00:27   #4
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Oh yeah, I almost forgot.

Boy oh boy oh boy did I get this one wrong.

I called for Putin to max out Tension for profit and influence, but not irrevocably crossing the threshold of War.

It is fundamentally irrational and illogical.

I suspect there are unknowns that weighed heavily on Putin’s risk calculus in his decision making that hopefully emerge.

So not only do we need to understand the What, but also the Why.

Why did he make the call?

The best analogy I can come up with until new insights emerge is Putin seems to be mimicking Heath Ledger’s Joker from The Dark Night, specifically:

AAA = you

https://www.AAAtube.com/watch?v=_N7_wlyvXqM

“It’s not about the money, it’s about sending a message.”
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Old 02-28-2022, 18:54   #5
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I suspect there are unknowns that weighed heavily on Putin’s risk calculus in his decision making that hopefully emerge.
There are no unknowns with regard to Putins invading Ukraine. Your analysis in a previous post was organized in as rational argument/layer with reason and a conclusion that was plausible. The problem with that for Putin, Ukraine is not a rational argument, it's emotional. There was no way he would ever allow that to happen, He rather destroy the whole country than allow Ukraines admission to NATO.

YMMV, but it's that simple.

Last edited by Penn; 02-28-2022 at 18:58.
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Old 02-28-2022, 22:41   #6
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Why did he make the call?
Simple.

Because he can.

TR
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Old 03-01-2022, 02:01   #7
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Because he can
To what extent? A forty mile long convoy is a target of opportunity and examples a logistical staging problem. Attacking that convoy Should be a prime object, it would create havoc for Putin and draw his forces outside the city, or perhaps delay their entry into all urban centers.

For argument, suppose each vehicle is spaced 30' apart, 40 miles, 5280 'per mile 176 vehicle per mile, 7040 total. send dozens of teams to attack all along the route, but attack the rear first, while simultaneously hitting the middle and forward position, withdraw quickly, then randomly hit them with no pattern, targeting munitions and rockets, explosion causing personnel casualties, hit and run, the convoy becomes immobile.

Additionally:

Putin doesn’t really have an army, he has material strength and forced conscripts, which is why Putin has employed Wagner group/merc’s and Chechenia’s as his hardcore shock troops, which pointily, states a lack of confidence in his own troops and their ability to willingly carry out his orders.

We know the history between Russia and Chechen, If President Zelenskyy could contact and create an alliance with Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, against their common enemy, Putin invasion would collapse. With the success of the convoy destruction Kadyrov may be enticed.

It would be very dangerous outcome, the betrayal might provoke Putin demise, or his willingness to use nuclear weapons, which would force the west into the conflict and possible MMD.

Last edited by Penn; 03-01-2022 at 07:08.
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Old 03-01-2022, 05:52   #8
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Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen View Post
Another purpose might be to discourage/delay foreign investment in the development of oil/gas in Ukraine.
That’s probably been achieved.
Heh. At the moment you wrote that I was onboard. Get up, have a cup of coffee and this (link is at Fox Biz):

Quote:
Shell is calling it quits in Russia and has announced plans to exit its relationship with Gazprom and related entities.
Ticker Security Last Change Change %
SHEL SHELL PLC 52.41 -1.79 -3.30%

On Monday, in a statement, CEO Ben van Beurden detailed the emotional decision.

"Our decision to exit is one we take with conviction," said van Beurden. "We cannot – and we will not – stand by. Our immediate focus is the safety of our people in Ukraine and supporting our people in Russia. In discussion with governments around the world, we will also work through the detailed business implications, including the importance of secure energy supplies to Europe and other markets, in compliance with relevant sanctions."

The unwinding of the joint venture includes a "27.5% stake in the Sakhalin-II liquefied natural gas facility, its 50% stake in the Salym Petroleum Development and the Gydan energy venture."
Apparently BP has done the same. Does this leave a mark?
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Old 03-01-2022, 10:03   #9
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It would be interesting to know what the Russian process is for using nukes. Is Putin able to unilaterally fire off nukes or is there a process that requires consent from other officials? Specifically related to the offensive use of nukes that is.

Also, for the 40 mile LOGPAC, hit the fuelers, this tactic worked against us perfecting in Baghdad. Curious to see if the Ukrainians will melt some asphalt and put some 300 pounders in the highway as well as get some EFP's in place. I would imagine they have hydropresses in country, would like to think that some advisor would have demonstrated how to build EFPs but given our current leadership I doubt it.
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Old 03-01-2022, 16:43   #10
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Whatever Putin goal was is now unreachable. He's lost the war and now has decided to totally destroy Ukraine.

He lost because of the these five examples of fearlessness. Ukrainians, especially the old women are determine to confront the Russian army unarmed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-europe-60558621

Last edited by Penn; 03-01-2022 at 16:48.
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Old 03-01-2022, 19:30   #11
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Ukraine Objectives:

The "Invasion" has become a shit-show, It's now stretching into it's 7th day on 3/2/22 The convoy has bogged down, President Zelenskyy received a standing ovation at the European Union meeting while the Russian Foreign Minister watched almost the entire delegation at his U N speech walk out....Big Night at the State of the Union speech for Putin especially if he is the main focus...Of course Brain Dead Biden could F_ _ K it up & let him off the hook, Putin should be concerned about his inner circle staying loyal or defecting to another Kremlin insider in a power play to save mother Russia from him...Things not working out for Putin the way he thought....
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Old 03-01-2022, 19:48   #12
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Don’t know if this is legit information or propaganda.
If there’s any truth to be found, it may hint at their objectives.

Just looks like the Russians are trying to consolidate the southern coast and the area east of the Dnieper river.
Kyiv obviously appears to be a major target.

The nuances of ground warfare and its relation to geography aren’t my bailiwick.
Maybe someone with some expertise could offer an interpretation.

https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PL...8nDXXbqqcmLbNK
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Old 03-01-2022, 20:28   #13
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Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen View Post
Just looks like the Russians are trying to consolidate the southern coast and the area east of the Dnieper river.
I've seen or read several views of exactly that. There is thought that the diversified strikes are to draw resources - many of which were already facing the Donbass - because that's one area he wants to consolidate. If he has a contiguous southern coast, and land east of the Dnieper, he may have satisfied one of his goals. Leaves a buffer (western Ukraine). (If he takes it all he buts himself right up against another NATO environment.) To someone who approaches things classically, the Dnieper is not a bad thing to have as part of your (new) border.
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Old 03-01-2022, 20:53   #14
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Originally Posted by Badger52 View Post
I've seen or read several views of exactly that. There is thought that the diversified strikes are to draw resources - many of which were already facing the Donbass - because that's one area he wants to consolidate. If he has a contiguous southern coast, and land east of the Dnieper, he may have satisfied one of his goals. Leaves a buffer (western Ukraine). (If he takes it all he buts himself right up against another NATO environment.) To someone who approaches things classically, the Dnieper is not a bad thing to have as part of your (new) border.
Current offensives, if consolidated, would give full control of the eastern and southern pipeline complexes.
There are already plans in the works to circumvent the western pipelines.

Control of southern and eastern Ukraine would also create a larger buffer around Volgograd.
The Volga river is a critical water transport route for the rest of Russia.

The lack of a natural frontier and historical invasions may contribute to paranoia at the Kremlin.
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Old 03-01-2022, 21:52   #15
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For Putin, best-case scenario is the reintegration of Ukraine and Belarus, and possibly other territories such as Kazakhstan, Ossetia, Abkazia, Transnistria, and Russian-speaking parts of Estonia, into a new Soviet Union in all but name.

At minimum, if Ukraine remains independent, Finlandization of rump Ukraine along with annexation of Luhansk, Dnipropetrovsk and Donetsk, joining Crimea. Also possibly Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, joining Crimea with those eastern oblasts. I can see Russia also wanting Odessa, Ukraine's main port, which is about 29% Russian. I wouldn't be surprised if Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts were also coveted.

And, of course, an object lesson to anyone who would consider standing up to Russia. No matter the official treaty commitment of NATO to Estonia, for example, I cannot imagine Estonians having much confidence in NATO right now.

I suppose Putin may be said to have miscalculated, expecting the same poor military response and Western political response to his previous actions in Georgia and Crimea. In population, Ukraine is 10 times larger than Georgia, and almost 1/3 the size of Russia, and has a military tested in battle with Russians and Russian-Ukrainian separatists since the Crimea annexation. By sheer numbers alone, Russia will likely prevail militarily, but the cost has been far greater then expected.
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