Reflections on the Road to Socialism

[Badger52]

Some impressions of 'the how' and, importantly, the result RE communism from those who lived in the former Soviet Bloc. Initiated as an exercise to compare events in the US, the impressions might also be interesting to those who've plied that AO and/or those of a certain vintage who've observed the before/during/after of post-WWII commuism.

Introductory

My good friend Concerned American at Western Rifle Shooters Association recently wrote to Vlad and me. He wanted to ask our East Bloc contacts who grew up under communism the following question:

“What lessons, if any, can be taken from the collapse of the Soviet Bloc and applied to those of us stuck in the upcoming fall of the US Bloc?”

Vlad and I forwarded his message to a number of our translators who have experienced communism. Four of them have replied so far, and more are expected. I’ve collected the first group below.

Stories thus collected so far at the Gates of Vienna blog's website here.

[cbtengr]

^^^^^
Interesting read, this was from report #2

"All communist systems like to place marginalized and untalented people into positions (for example, AOC), where they can take their revenge against their peers. I think this is something you can expect to see at all levels."

AOC is not alone she has lot's of company. I was somewhat surprised that we the U.S. was regarded as having been bullies for the past 70 years. Bullies that pour billions and billions of dollars we really cannot afford into trying to cure the worlds ills.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by Badger52

Some impressions of 'the how' and, importantly, the result RE communism from those who lived in the former Soviet Bloc.

Thanks, I consider myself very fortunate to have acquaintances that think past the incessant jibberish of the Left.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

Thanks, I consider myself very fortunate to have acquaintances that think past the incessant jibberish of the Left.

That's an interesting take. Sometimes, perhaps, we find it easy to ID the lunatics (because they're incessant flare-poppers) and lose sight or take for granted some folks around us who are a blessing simply because they are really solid folks. They've resisted and are still in their right mind, or their core values were - quietly - so strong that they never had to give it a thought.

[Penn]

Prediction: imo, Putin is going to invade, and even money on China acting on its long term goal. Two different AO, Two superpowers acting in concert, the world will change overnight and there is nothing that the west can do to prevent this strategic move.
Especially, after 20 years in SWA and the ME. The west is playing with fire and is about to get burnt.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Penn

Prediction: imo, Putin is going to invade, and even money on China acting on its long term goal. Two different AO, Two superpowers acting in concert, the world will change overnight and there is nothing that the west can do to prevent this strategic move.
Especially, after 20 years in SWA and the ME. The west is playing with fire and is about to get burnt.

I hold a contrary view.

Russia will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war because going overtly kinetic is really bad for business.

Most Russian export earnings are from energy, and most Russian government income is from energy royalties.

Most Russian energy is exported to the EU.

Most of that is sold to NATO member states, with Germany reliant on Russia for 37% of its energy needs.

The mafia tend to view war, especially involving customers and cash flow, is bad for business.

Very early in Ronald Reagan’s first term was a battle to stop NATO from enriching its stated adversary with the proposed Soviet pipeline to Western Europe.

Reagan used up a lot of political capital to successfully disrupt it contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Unfortunately, Reagan didn’t win the war, just the battle. The pipeline was only delayed.

Putin is likely to successfully win a battle of a thousand cuts beneath the threshold of conventional war and once again gain primary influence over much of Eastern Europe.

Germany is sitting on the sidelines because they are dependent on Russian energy and were geopolitically dumb and nuke when they shut down their commercial nuclear reactors post Fukushima.

China can’t conduct a forcible entry in Taiwan without guaranteeing the destruction. of the Chinese economy, here’s why:

China’s biggest single import(more than energy or food) is semiconductors, mostly from Taiwan, with 100% of advanced semiconductors coming from one company in Taiwan, TSMC.

If PLA tried to seize TSMC chip fabs they could be easily and instantly sabotaged or vaporized by a single B2 strike.

They would be left with fabs that produce 0% yield out to infinity or smoking craters and the $350 billion of silicon imports would create at least 10X that in lost economic output, so economic depression.

That’s why China is investing $100B in silicon and approx the same is being invested in Arizona and Ohio.

For the US and China to eliminate their existential reliance on Taiwanese silicon will take the US 10 years, $500B, and 50K high educated folks with very special skillsets.

China will need twice as long, twice as much, and twice the skilled people(due to lack of semicon equipment ecosystem).

In both cases, Russia and China are likely to stay non-kinetic but keep the tension high beneath the threshold of war.

Beijing Olympic(next week) prestige matters to China, as does the international introduction of the Digital Yuan(at the Olympics).

I believe we are already at war, but warfare that will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war.

[bubba]

Originally Posted by Flagg

I hold a contrary view.

Russia will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war because going overtly kinetic is really bad for business.

Most Russian export earnings are from energy, and most Russian government income is from energy royalties.

Most Russian energy is exported to the EU.

Most of that is sold to NATO member states, with Germany reliant on Russia for 37% of its energy needs.

The mafia tend to view war, especially involving customers and cash flow, is bad for business.

Very early in Ronald Reagan’s first term was a battle to stop NATO from enriching its stated adversary with the proposed Soviet pipeline to Western Europe.

Reagan used up a lot of political capital to successfully disrupt it contributing to the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Unfortunately, Reagan didn’t win the war, just the battle. The pipeline was only delayed.

Putin is likely to successfully win a battle of a thousand cuts beneath the threshold of conventional war and once again gain primary influence over much of Eastern Europe.

Germany is sitting on the sidelines because they are dependent on Russian energy and were geopolitically dumb and nuke when they shut down their commercial nuclear reactors post Fukushima.

China can’t conduct a forcible entry in Taiwan without guaranteeing the destruction. of the Chinese economy, here’s why:

China’s biggest single import(more than energy or food) is semiconductors, mostly from Taiwan, with 100% of advanced semiconductors coming from one company in Taiwan, TSMC.

If PLA tried to seize TSMC chip fabs they could be easily and instantly sabotaged or vaporized by a single B2 strike.

They would be left with fabs that produce 0% yield out to infinity or smoking craters and the $350 billion of silicon imports would create at least 10X that in lost economic output, so economic depression.

That’s why China is investing $100B in silicon and approx the same is being invested in Arizona and Ohio.

For the US and China to eliminate their existential reliance on Taiwanese silicon will take the US 10 years, $500B, and 50K high educated folks with very special skillsets.

China will need twice as long, twice as much, and twice the skilled people(due to lack of semicon equipment ecosystem).

In both cases, Russia and China are likely to stay non-kinetic but keep the tension high beneath the threshold of war.

Beijing Olympic(next week) prestige matters to China, as does the international introduction of the Digital Yuan(at the Olympics).

I believe we are already at war, but warfare that will likely stay beneath the threshold of conventional war.

Flagg,

That Sir is one of the most comprehensive and well thought out assessments at a Strategic level I have seen. Most of the time people overlook all of those real-world aspects, (and I’m putting the talking head media along with the under-informed public in the overwhelming majority here) because they have little to no real-world supply side economic understanding.

If you don’t already, you need to work somewhere higher up in the food-chain of the Strategic Defense of this country.

[Penn]

Putin, has done the math. he see's no real downside to his legacy of reuniting historical Russia, which for many Russians the breakup was never accepted, not much different from the 2020 election outcome. There remains a deep disappointment in our electoral system.

The comparison is based in emotion. They are one and the same. Putin, is in many ways a nationalist, he wants the prestige and honor of Russia restored, a worthy goal for any leader of any country. Likewise, we all look forward to the 2022/24 to right the societal wrongs of a misguided political philosophy.

The confrontation with Russia is manufactured, a constructed distraction which the Biden administration and the whole of MSM will decade all efforts to distract the American voting public from the past 30 months of internal domestic conflict that has sought to undermine the constitutional structure of these United States.

The D卐M☭CRAT Party will do whatever is necessary to limit the impact of lost in the election, be prepared to suffer socially and economically. Their (D卐M☭CRAT Party) only way forward to the total demise of our economy and social cohesion.

Side note: With 60% of Russian Ground forces and mech centered around in Ukraine, just think what a target rich AO exist, exploited, Russia would cease to be a threat.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by Penn

Side note: With 60% of Russian Ground forces and mech centered around in Ukraine, just think what a target rich AO exist, exploited, Russia would cease to be a threat.

Target RICH and with a little help from Global Warming,, a heavily mechanized army stuck in the Spring mud.

[Penn]

800 soldiers from an Italy-based infantry battalion task force to the Baltic states
(The Herd)
Up to eight Air Force F-35 strike fighters from Germany to the Baltics, as well as an unspecified location on NATO’s southeastern flank

An attack aviation battalion with 20 AH-64 Apache helicopters, from Germany to the Baltics

An attack aviation task force with 12 Apaches from Greece to Poland

32 Apaches is an awesome amount of fire power

The gulf war proved how lethal Apaches were, Russian Armor impinge
in mud may be no different than fortified sand pits that the Iraq Armor employed.

Who's the huckleberry in this one?

Edit to add: Why would Putin have waited, when the outcome of his delay to attack, allow the repositioning of these forces? Which arguably, are extreme offense weapon platforms. What does Russia have to counter Apaches and their standoff capabilities?

[Box]

As I watch events unfold around the world, one things becomes clear...

When the Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus shuttered its door in 2017 - it had NOTHING to do with cruelty to animals or the exploitation of endangered species.

After the 2016 election leftists around the world realized that they had an unsustainable need for clowns. The circus was forced out of business because they had clowns - a existential commodity to activists and community organizers.

The clown shoes being used by the democrats no longer fit and the democrats needed to start cultivating a new generation of fucking circus clowns to help crash the government.

...now performing in the center ring under the big top - JoJo the Horse Faced Pony Soldier

***please remain seated until the show is over - we don't want anyone missing the show***

[rsdengler]

Originally Posted by Box

As I watch events unfold around the world, one things becomes clear...

When the Ringling Brothers and Barnum & Bailey Circus shuttered its door in 2017 - it had NOTHING to do with cruelty to animals or the exploitation of endangered species.

After the 2016 election leftists around the world realized that they had an unsustainable need for clowns. The circus was forced out of business because they had clowns - a existential commodity to activists and community organizers.

The clown shoes being used by the democrats no longer fit and the democrats needed to start cultivating a new generation of fucking circus clowns to help crash the government.

...now performing in the center ring under the big top - JoJo the Horse Faced Pony Soldier

***please remain seated until the show is over - we don't want anyone missing the show***

No wonder I dislike clowns so much, our so-called leaders put on that hideous clown suit everyday. Damn JoJo...

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally Posted by Penn

Why would Putin have waited, when the outcome of his delay to attack, allow the repositioning of these forces? Which arguably, are extreme offense weapon platforms. What does Russia have to counter Apaches and their standoff capabilities?

Why would you think our current leadership would use any of these weapons? Putin obviously isn't concerned about it, and why should he be?

[Old Dog New Trick]

My thought process is that when the sanctions imposed by the west hit Putin and his inner circle of influence the greatest he will turn the control valve on natural gas and petroleum flowing into Europe. When the Europeans are freezing their asses off and can’t charge their electric cars and gas prices go through the roof he will sit back and laugh his ass off.

My assessment is Putin is in a position of power and has nothing to lose and much to gain. NATO will likely fall (fail) as a paper tiger and the US will be holding strings to nothing more than an idealistic memory of what it was like to be considered a world superpower.

If China is watching [which I think they are] the Orient is ripe for total take over without a shot being fired.

The Middle East (oil producers) are already is thinking we don’t need to compete with the United States and will meet with Putin to establish new oil prices for the world market.

There are no upsides to this conflict other than Joe Biden starting WW3 over his and Hunter Biden’s implicit underhanded monopoly on supporting Ukrainian oil production.

Putin has already won and we cannot do anything about it.

I was wondering the other day if they have already started painting our trucks and tanks green from desert tan?

[Penn]

Why would you think our current leadership would use any of these weapons? Putin obviously isn't concerned about it, and why should he be?

RL, I'm certain, that Biden isn't making any decisions. But the D卐M☭CRAT Party needs a distraction from/for their behavior these past 72 months. War is a great reset, and I think as the slaughter continues, it will act as a magnet, dragging the the USA/west willingly into the fray. YMMV