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Old 09-03-2004, 14:16   #1
rubberneck
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Time Magazine , Bush leads 52%-41%

Campaign 2004: Bush Opens Double-Digit Lead
TIME Poll: Among likely voters, 52% would vote for President George Bush, while 41% would vote for John Kerry and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader



Friday, Sep. 03, 2004
New York: For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2. Poll results are available on TIME.com and will appear in the upcoming issue of TIME magazine, on newsstands Monday, Sept. 6.

Most important issues: When asked what they consider are the most important issues, 25% of registered voters cited the economy as the top issue, followed by 24% who cited the war on terrorism as the top issue. The situation in Iraq was rated the top issue by 17% of registered voters, moral values issues such as gay marriage and abortion were the top issue for 16% of respondents, and health care was the most important issue for 11% of respondents.

Bush vs. Kerry:
The economy: 47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.
Health care: 48% trust Senator Kerry to handle health care issues, while 42% trust Bush.
Iraq: 53% trust Bush to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry.
Terrorism: 57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36% trust Kerry.
Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.
Providing strong leadership: 56% said they trust Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while 37% said they trust Kerry to provide leadership in difficult times.
Tax policy: 49% trust Bush to handle tax policy, while 40% trust Kerry.
Commanding the Armed Forces: 54% said they trust Bush to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, while 39% said they trust Kerry.

Bush on the Issues:
Iraq: Half (50%) of those surveyed approve of the way President Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, while 46% disapprove. In last week’s TIME poll, 48% approved of the way Bush was handling the situation in Iraq and 48% disapproved.
Terrorism: Almost two thirds (59%) said they approve of how President Bush is handling the war on terrorism, while 38% disapprove. Last week’s TIME poll found 55% approved of Bush’s handling of the war on terrorism, while 40% disapproved.
The Economy: Survey respondents were split on the President’s handling of the economy. Almost half (48%) said the approved of Bush’s handling of the economy, while 48% said the disapproved.

Other results include:
Was U.S. Right Going to War with Iraq? Over half of those surveyed (52%) think the U.S. was right in going to war with Iraq, while 41% think the U.S. was wrong to go to war.

Have the United States’ actions in Iraq made the world safer? Almost half (45%) think the United States’ actions in Iraq have made the world safer, while 45% think the world is more dangerous. In a similar TIME poll taken Aug. 3 – 5, over half (52%) said the world was more dangerous, and 38% said the world was safer.
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Old 09-03-2004, 14:23   #2
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Seems a bit high (I am watching Rasmussen, which is at 4%), but I think the momentum is continuing.

Good news regardless, thanks.

TR
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Old 09-03-2004, 14:29   #3
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Quote:
Originally posted by The Reaper
Seems a bit high (I am watching Rasmussen, which is at 4%), but I think the momentum is continuing.

Good news regardless, thanks.

TR
I would love to read the wording of both polls because both interviewed roughly 1,300 likely voters. Knowing how the questions were posed might help to explain why there is a difference larger than the margin of error.
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Old 09-03-2004, 14:34   #4
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Rasmussen (for today) is a few days old polling data.

They state on the site that some of the responses were gathered before Zell's speech.

I expect the increase on Rasmussen to widen as more current data is taken, and as Kerry continues to self-destruct. I get the impression from his actions and words more and more every day that he lacks steadiness and calm to be a leader under pressure.

Now, I believe, is the time to start looking at the state/Electoral College numbers.

TR
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Old 09-03-2004, 15:20   #5
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Quote:
Originally posted by The Reaper
Rasmussen (for today) is a few days old polling data.

They state on the site that some of the responses were gathered before Zell's speech.

I expect the increase on Rasmussen to widen as more current data is taken, and as Kerry continues to self-destruct. I get the impression from his actions and words more and more every day that he lacks steadiness and calm to be a leader under pressure.

Now, I believe, is the time to start looking at the state/Electoral College numbers.

TR
Rasmussen's poll is a two-way race - Bush/Cheney vs. Kerry/Edwards. Time's is a 3-way, with Nader/Camejo added in. Both are of likely voters, as opposed to registered voters. The former is a better measure, assuming the poll respondent is telling the truth.

Rasmussen's poll covered 8/31-9/2, the same period covered by Time, so neither takes into account the effect of Bush's speech, Kerry's response and new attacks, or today's economic numbers. Zogby had a poll for the same period. It showed Bush at 46% and Kerry at 44%. Adding in Nader, it was 46% to 43% to 3%, so Nader took about 1% from Kerry.

ARG has a poll for the same period which gives Bush a 1% lead in a head-to-head, but a tie with Kerry in a 3-way.

If you want to compare all of the polls, I suggest RealClearPolitics. It also has state polling data. It's also a good gateway to opinion pieces and other commentary.
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Old 09-03-2004, 15:34   #6
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Excellent site, thanks AL.

How do you reconcile a 11 point spread (Time) with a 4, a 3 or 2, and a 1 point spread (ARG)?

To me, Zogby appears biased. I am unfamiliar with ARG. Gallup had it at 3 points, in a pre-RNC 23-25 Aug 2 way race.

I liked this article.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion...02-moore_x.htm

Moore is such a fat-assed idiot.

He moans about Republicans not sending their kids to fight and die, he better start looking at the demographics of those soldiers, like political affiliation and where they came from. Majority are Republicans from Red States.

TR
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Old 09-03-2004, 15:50   #7
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TR,
If you scream loud enough to the right group of people, they'll believe anything. Moore and demagogues like him are, IMO, a potential threat to democracy. Fortunately, we are not moving through a general depression. Otherwise, like Hitler and the NSDAP in the early 1930's, Moore might develop a foothold for his misleading drivel.
JMO,

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Old 09-03-2004, 16:01   #8
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As I said..

Last night in the RNC thread, I think his speech was an absolute grand slam!!!

I am hopeful and EXTREMLY happy today!!
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Old 09-03-2004, 16:49   #9
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Quote:
Originally posted by The Reaper
How do you reconcile a 11 point spread (Time) with a 4, a 3 or 2, and a 1 point spread (ARG)?

Moore is such a fat-assed idiot.
Two possible explanations:

1. Time's is an outlier, and should probably be discounted. Their sample may have been skewed. Sampling error only corrects for probability error, but not for "garbage in/garbage out." They may have sampled too many Republicans (or the other polls are sampling too few, a common critique of Zogby and the LA Times).

2. Time's is closer to an accurate picture, either because, as stated, their sample was better, or because the others concluded much of their sampling too early and didn't effectively catch the effect of Miller's and Cheney's speeches or other developments leading up to last night.

Follow-up polls might give a better picture of the bounce, if any, and the general trend. The hurricane might have an effect, though. A long weekend with working people at home will also alter the sample of telephone polls.

BTW, calling Moore a fat-assed idiot is an insult to fat people and idiots (though the latter might not realize they're being insulted).

Last edited by Airbornelawyer; 09-06-2004 at 17:00.
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Old 09-04-2004, 11:51   #10
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I guess thew time poll isn't an outlier

A new Newsweek poll shows Bush opening up an 11 point lead, which dovetails with the Time mag poll. I don't want to eat up bandwith because the story is so long but you can read it here:

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/st...2244238&EDATE=
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