Where's Bin Ladin?

[echoes]

A Professor at my University was asked his opinion in U.S. History class once. This Professor was former counter-terrorism/counter-intelligence in the US Army, and earned his doctorate after his service.

I remember him clearly stating that IF bin-laden was dead and the US gov't knew it, we would not publicize it. His reasons were, among others, that it would provide an advantage to the other side...in that they would attempt to wreak havvoc b/c of their slain leader etc...

I tend to believe that theory...OBL is dead, but it is not being publicised.

Holly just my .02

[WhiskeyBoarder]

While I am in no position to hijack a QP’s thread, this discussion has brought to mind many a conversation that I have had with family and friends. These conversations usually begin inevitably with the opposition’s argument against everything to do with current American foreign policy and, also inevitably, turn toward their tread-thin argument concerning the fact that we have yet to find Bin Laden. And, as they would say, “Bin Laden was the original source of all this fighting, right?”

I am not going to go on a tangent concerning all the flaws that I have found in these arguments. However, I do want to add an additional question to the line of thought that this thread is on.

If Bin Laden has managed to stay alive, does he have any control over the various terrorist networks that we are currently dealing with?

I only ask because I often counter points about Bin Laden’s continued existence by suggesting exactly this phenomenon: whether he is alive or not is moot in comparison to whether he is still operationally capable. While I would prefer to see the substantiated death of Bin Laden, I rest just as easy with the thought that he has been rendered ineffective.

Since I have used this point so often, I wanted to make sure there are few holes in it. Any thoughts?

Thanks.

[x-factor]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070711/..._terror_threat

Al-Qaida has rebuilt, U.S. intel warns

By KATHERINE SHRADER and MATTHEW LEE, Associated Press Writers

WASHINGTON - U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded al-Qaida has rebuilt its operating capability to a level not seen since just before the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, The Associated Press has learned. The conclusion suggests that the group that launched the most devastating terror attack on the United States has been able to regroup along the Afghan-Pakistani border despite nearly six years of bombings, war and other tactics aimed at crippling it.

Still, numerous government officials say they know of no specific, credible threat of a new attack on U.S. soil.

A counterterrorism official familiar with a five-page summary of the new government threat assessment called it a stark appraisal to be discussed at the White House on Thursday as part of a broader meeting on an upcoming National Intelligence Estimate.

The official and others spoke on condition of anonymity because the secret report remains classified.

Counterterrorism analysts produced the document, titled "Al-Qaida better positioned to strike the West." The document focuses on the terror group's safe haven in Pakistan and makes a range of observations about the threat posed to the United States and its allies, officials said.

Al-Qaida is "considerably operationally stronger than a year ago" and has "regrouped to an extent not seen since 2001," the official said, paraphrasing the report's conclusions. "They are showing greater and greater ability to plan attacks in Europe and the United States."

The group also has created "the most robust training program since 2001, with an interest in using European operatives," the official quoted the report as saying.

At the same time, this official said, the report speaks of "significant gaps in intelligence" so U.S. authorities may be ignorant of potential or planned attacks.

John Kringen, who heads the CIA's analysis directorate, echoed the concerns about al-Qaida's resurgence during testimony and conversations with reporters at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on Wednesday.

"They seem to be fairly well settled into the safe haven and the ungoverned spaces of Pakistan," Kringen testified. "We see more training. We see more money. We see more communications. We see that activity rising."

The threat assessment comes as the 16 U.S. intelligence agencies prepare a National Intelligence Estimate focusing on threats to the United States. A senior intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity while the high-level analysis was being finalized, said the document has been in the works for roughly two years.

Kringen and aides to National Intelligence Director Mike McConnell would not comment on the details of that analysis. "Preparation of the estimate is not a response to any specific threat," McConnell's spokesman Ross Feinstein said, adding that it would be ready for distribution this summer.

Counterterrorism officials have been increasingly concerned about al-Qaida's recent operations. This week, Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff said he had a "gut feeling" that the United States faced a heightened risk of attack this summer.

Kringen said he wouldn't attach a summer time frame to the concern. In studying the threat, he said he begins with the premise that al-Qaida would consider attacking the U.S. a "home run hit" and that the easiest way to get into the United States would be through Europe.

The new threat assessment puts particular focus on Pakistan, as did Kringen.

"Sooner or later you have to quit permitting them to have a safe haven" along the Afghan-Pakistani border, he told the House committee. "At the end of the day, when we have had success, it is when you've been able to get them worried about who was informing on them, get them worried about who was coming after them."

Several European countries — among them Britain, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands — are also highlighted in the threat assessment partly because they have arrangements with the Pakistani government that allow their citizens easier access to Pakistan than others, according to the counterterrorism official.

This is more troubling because all four are part of the U.S. visa waiver program, and their citizens can enter the United States without additional security scrutiny, the official said.

The Bush administration has repeatedly cited al-Qaida as a key justification for continuing the fight in Iraq.

"The No. 1 enemy in Iraq is al-Qaida," White House press secretary Tony Snow said Wednesday. "Al-Qaida continues to be the chief organizer of mayhem within Iraq, the chief organization for killing innocent Iraqis."

The findings could bolster the president's hand at a moment when support on Capitol Hill for the war is eroding and the administration is struggling to defend its decision for a military buildup in Iraq. A progress report that the White House is releasing to Congress this week is expected to indicate scant progress on the political and military benchmarks set for Iraq.

The threat assessment says that al-Qaida stepped up efforts to "improve its core operational capability" in late 2004 but did not succeed until December of 2006 after the Pakistani government signed a peace agreement with tribal leaders that effectively removed government military presence from the northwest frontier with Afghanistan.

The agreement allows Taliban and al-Qaida operatives to move across the border with impunity and establish and run training centers, the report says, according to the official.

It also says that al-Qaida is particularly interested in building up the numbers in its middle ranks, or operational positions, so there is not as great a lag in attacks when such people are killed.

"Being No. 3 in al-Qaida is a bad job. We regularly get to the No. 3 person," Tom Fingar, the top U.S. intelligence analyst, told the House panel.

The counterterror official said the report does not focus on al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden, his whereabouts or his role in the terrorist network. Officials say al-Qaida has become more like a "family-oriented" mob organization with leadership roles in cells and other groups being handed from father to son, or cousin to uncle.

Yet bin Laden's whereabouts are still of great interest to intelligence agencies. Although he has not been heard from for some time, Kringen said officials believe he is still alive and living under the protection of tribal leaders in the border area.

Armed Services Committee members expressed frustration that more was not being done to get bin Laden and tamp down activity in the tribal areas. The senior intelligence analysts tried to portray the difficulty of operating in the area despite a $25 million bounty on the head of bin Laden and his top deputy.

"They are in an environment that is more hostile to us than it is to al-Qaida," Fingar said.

[Pete]

The thing that POs me is some more people talking about a "Secret" report.

Some people like to shoot off their mouths trying to get the MSM to like them or think they're important.

Mighty weak about OBL at the end. Boiled down - they don't know and there ain't no chatter about him. Silent as the grave you could say.

[Tubbs]

I voted other and here's why, I have several theories.

1. Bin Laden pulled a move like in the movie "Face Off", he is actually Rosie O'Donell now.

2. Bin Laden is secretly at the helm of MSNBC. Realizing that it was an eaiser and safer platform to decry the US he cashed in on his college education, took a management job there and is moving up the ranks.

3. Hillary and Bin Laden are the same person. Think about it, just put her in a beard and some robes and it all makes sense. That could also expalin Bills promiscuity. I mean, the only person I would want to have sex with less that Hillary is Bin Laden.

Just my .02

[82ndtrooper]

Originally Posted by Tubbs

I voted other and here's why, I have several theories.

1. Bin Laden pulled a move like in the movie "Face Off", he is actually Rosie O'Donell now.

2. Bin Laden is secretly at the helm of MSNBC. Realizing that it was an eaiser and safer platform to decry the US he cashed in on his college education, took a management job there and is moving up the ranks.

3. Hillary and Bin Laden are the same person. Think about it, just put her in a beard and some robes and it all makes sense. That could also expalin Bills promiscuity. I mean, the only person I would want to have sex with less that Hillary is Bin Laden.

Just my .02

Now that's funny !! You should send this to Bill O'Reilly.com

[FearMonkey]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289324,00.html

Anyone want to change their vote? At least I can take comfort in knowing there are still scumbags that need killing left in this world.

[Pete]

Originally Posted by FearMonkey

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289324,00.html

Anyone want to change their vote? At least I can take comfort in knowing there are still scumbags that need killing left in this world.

No. A short clip that may have been an unseen part of a video released 5-6 years ago?

He's dead - but nobody on either side wants to come right out and say it.

[Team Sergeant]

Originally Posted by Pete

No. A short clip that may have been an unseen part of a video released 5-6 years ago?

He's dead - but nobody on either side wants to come right out and say it.

I agree he's dead.

The MSM will report anything it deems news worthy with a cash value.

All bin laden needs to do is say something "current" which has not been done since 2002. That idiot is dead.

TS

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by FearMonkey

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,289324,00.html

Anyone want to change their vote? At least I can take comfort in knowing there are still scumbags that need killing left in this world.

Nope.

No mention of current events or recent activities.

Could have been made years ago.

TR

[Team Sergeant]

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was also in this recent video....... that idiot has been taking a dirt nap since June 08, 2006.

[groundup]

Originally Posted by Ambush Master

I'm with TR, but if he is still alive.........I think that he has been holed up in China and if dead, was hiding up there also!!! While we can work with the Pakis, we could never get China to allow us in!!

I would say that is where he went. Asked me this 2 years ago, I would say he is definitely alive. Now, I am not so sure.

[SF_BHT]

Still Hiding in a hole In Pakistan....... May have been at his sons wedding to the Brit. May have been dressed up as a camel.....
I think he is scared of the VP asking him to go Bird Hunting.

[WhiskeyBoarder]

I just wanted to bring this to your attention. As a note, I am simply extremely interested in politics and understand that many of you are educated and experienced in the field. So, please recognize that I simply bringing this to your attention to allow you to judge its meaning and not to pass judgment myself.

I was watching CSPAN today because Frances Townsend, our Homeland Security Advisor, was holding a press conference concerning current terrorist threats, the recently issued national intelligence estimate, etc.

The conclusion of the conference was particularly relevant to the conversation at hand. A reporter from an Urban Radio affiliate of some sort asked a question concerning Bid Laden’s current health. Townsend was absolutely opposed to divulging any information about what she knows about his physical condition.

I am really curious as to what she knows and why she so blatantly bypassed the question. Could it because Townsend knows, in fact, his well-being is non-existent? Or, is the opposite true and she knows that he is in better health then we may assume?

Here is the exact conversation as per the transcript on the Washington Post website:


QUESTION: Do you know if Osama bin Laden is still on a dialysis machine. Is he still ill? What? I mean, could you tell us about that? I mean, because it...

TOWNSEND: She thinks I'm a doctor...

(LAUGHTER)

QUESTION: No, seriously, I mean, it might be laughable, but people are finding it hard, six years, this man is sick, moving around from cave to cave and can't be found, with a dialysis machine...

TOWNSEND: Have you ever been to the tribal areas?
I suspect not.

QUESTION: No, I haven't, but I've seen some great pictures from Ken Herman as to the rough terrain over that way, so...

(LAUGHTER)

TOWNSEND: It's not exactly easy. If it were easy, he'd be dead.

QUESTION: But it's not easy for him to travel around with medics and machinery, if he's sick. I mean, is he -- do you know, from your intelligence, if he's still sick? What do you know about it?

TOWNSEND: (OFF-MIKE). Thank you.



Any thoughts?

The full transcript can be accessed here.

Thank you.

[Team Sergeant]

IMO, after reading her bio, she has very little knowledge in the field of national intelligence.

She's a "intelligence lawyer", period. She reviews what and what cannot be done in the way of gathering intel.

"Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism", no wonder we have not found certain individuals.

The terrorists will never beat us, we will do that ourselves.

TS




Ms. Frances Fragos Townsend
Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism

Ms. Frances Fragos Townsend was appointed Homeland Security Advisor by the President on May 28th, 2004. Ms. Townsend chairs the Homeland Security Council and reports to the President on United States Homeland Security policy and Combating Terrorism matters. She previously served as Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Advisor for Combating Terrorism.

Ms. Townsend came to the White House from the U. S. Coast Guard, where she had served as Assistant Commandant for Intelligence. Prior to that, Ms. Townsend spent 13 years at the U. S. Department of Justice in a variety of senior positions, her last assignment as Counsel to the Attorney General for Intelligence Policy. Ms. Townsend began her prosecutorial career in 1985, serving as an Assistant District Attorney in Brooklyn, New York.

In 1988, she joined the United States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York where she focused on international organized crime and white-collar crime cases. In 1991, she worked in the Office of the Attorney General to assist in establishing the newly created Office of International Programs, the predecessor to the Executive Office for National Security. In December 1993, she joined the Criminal Division where she served as Chief of Staff to the Assistant Attorney General and played a critical part in establishing the Division's international training and rule of law programs.

From November of 1995 to November of 1997, Ms. Townsend was Director of the Office of International Affairs in the Criminal Division, which serves as the U. S. Central Authority for extradition and mutual legal assistance, and works with the Department of State in the negotiation of international law enforcement treaties. In November of 1997, Ms. Townsend was appointed as Acting Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Criminal Division, where she oversaw international law enforcement and training matters in the Criminal Division, and acted as an advisor to the Attorney General and Deputy Attorney General on international law enforcement policy.

In March of 1998, Ms. Townsend was appointed Counsel for Intelligence Policy, managing matters related to national security policy and operations for the Department of Justice. In this capacity she headed the office of Intelligence Policy and Review, an office that provides legal advice and recommendations to the Attorney General and the Department of Justice regarding national security matters, reviews executive orders, directives and procedures relating to the intelligence community, and approves certain intelligence-gathering activities, especially those matters related to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act.

After three years of study, Ms. Townsend graduated cum laude from the American University in 1982 where she received a B.A. in Political Science and a B.S. in Psychology. Ms. Townsend received her J.D. from the University of San Diego School of Law in 1984. In 1986, she attended the Institute on International and Comparative Law in London, England.