Wuhan Coronavirus

[Razor]

Originally Posted by mugwump

DOD/DHS are setting up more quarantine centers on military bases:

JB Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii (HNL)
Great Lakes Training Center Navy Base, Illinois (ORD)
Naval Air Station Joint Reserve Base, Texas (DFW)
March ARB, California (LAX)
Travis AFB, California (SFO)
Dobbins ARB, Georgia (ATL)
Fort Hamilton, New York (JFK)
Naval Base Kitsap, Washington (SEA)
Joint Base Anacostia, Washington DC (IAD)
Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst, New Jersey (EWR)
Fort Custer Training Center, Michigan (DTW)

The Department of Defense already has quarantine centers at Fort Carson in Colorado, Travis Air Force Base and Marine Corps Air Station Miramar in California, and Lackland Air Force Base in Texas.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nat...#storylink=cpy

Is that just now hitting the press? We were working the coordination for Travis, Lackland, Miramar, and Carson for over a week, and the other locations since last Friday. Frankly, several of those were supposed to drop off the table due to lack of DHHS need, but senior folks want to press on 'just in case'.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Razor

Is that just now hitting the press? We were working the coordination for Travis, Lackland, Miramar, and Carson for over a week, and the other locations since last Friday. Frankly, several of those were supposed to drop off the table due to lack of DHHS need, but senior folks want to press on 'just in case'.

Hit the news last Friday and Saturday I think. Great Lakes certainly made the local news here then. I certainly hope none of them are needed but it makes sense to be prepared. I wonder what the recent event at Miramar is doing to base procedures. Rhetorical question. CDC didn’t exactly cover them selves with glory on that one—testing snafu let a confirmed positive back into the base instead of hospital quarantine.

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by Razor

Is that just now hitting the press? We were working the coordination for Travis, Lackland, Miramar, and Carson for over a week, and the other locations since last Friday. Frankly, several of those were supposed to drop off the table due to lack of DHHS need, but senior folks want to press on 'just in case'.

What capacity are they aiming for? Makes sense to have a location near to every airport that handles international traffic.

[PSM]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

Makes sense to have a location near to every airport that handles international traffic.

Sucks that it's near our possible frontline troops.

[InTheBlack]

Trying to square different units of measure in different references:

Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents kampf PRE PROOF

https://sci-hub.tw/10.1016/j.jhin.2020.01.022

The typical use of bleach is at a dilution of 1:100 of 5% sodium hypochlorite
resulting in a final concentration of 0.05% [13].

Our summarized data with coronaviruses suggest that a concentration of 0.1% is effective in 1 min (Table 3). That is why it seems appropriate to
recommend a dilution 1:50 of standard bleach in the coronavirus setting.
>

1:50 is 2/100 is 20,000 parts per million (ppm) from 5% stock. That's an odd stock solution, unless hospitals make it themselves. Or does Clorox sell a hospital product to the trade ???

vs

Disinfecting and Sanitizing with Bleach
Guidelines for Mixing Bleach Solutions for Child Care and Similar Environments - 2015 WA State Dept Health.

https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Doc...nfect-en-L.pdf


Background: Sodium hypochlorite is the active ingredient in household bleach or chlorine bleach.

It is economical, and is an effective disinfectant with a broad spectrum of antimicrobial activity. It has been the primary disinfectant used in early learning programs in Washington State for more than 30 years.

During this time, most household chlorine bleach was available at strengths of 5.25- 6.25%. The recommended concentration for disinfection has been 600-800 ppm of chlorine bleach and 50 to 200 parts per million (ppm) for sanitizing.

In 2012, some manufacturers changed their chlorine bleach formulation to a strength of 8.25% with a registered non-food contact surface disinfection level of 2400 ppm, the level often used in hospitals. Their sanitizing level is 200 ppm, the upper end of the range allowed by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
>

It shows a chart to make 600-800ppm from 3 stock concentrations. But that is disinfection, not sanitization which I believe would be the 20,000ppm amount stated in the research paper.

But I don't know if there is a simple linear relationship, ie 33 x 600ppm amount = 20,000, because chlorine chemistry is a balancing act between several chemical species. So it might call for more or less than a linear amount of chemical. Anyone know?

I suppose 1:50 of a 5.25% stock won't be too strong, but 8.25% might be worth doing some math to get it correct.

[mugwump]

Markets are going nuts because cases are “leveling off” yet reports coming from frontline medics are saying all Hubei province test kits were expended 09 Feb. They’re scrambling to make more. Even with bilateral lung lesions on CAT scan the current rules state a case can’t be reported confirmed until tested. Why no cases in Indonesia? Africa? Are the majority of cases mild? Sure hope so.

[mugwump]

While this will be a huge shock to Wall Street tomorrow, it's actually very, very good news...

China’s Hubei province reported 14,840 new cases and 242 additional deaths today, reversing the "leveling off" narrative. They've abandoned the official definition of a "confirmed case" (positive RNA test with no symptoms=no case) and they have added in the obvious--cases with confirmed lesions in the lungs and those patient presenting with the symptoms they've come to know accompany this disease.

Word is, the final straw for Hubei was the lack of testing (because of NO test kits since the 9th) leading to the narrative of "leveling off". Things are not leveling off.

2020-02-12.jpeg

[mugwump]

It'll be very, very interesting to see if Beijing contradicts the Hubei province's official figures. There has to be a war going on internally in Beijing between the camp that wants transparency and the bureaucrats who are trying to salvage the economy, "move along, nothing to see..."

If Hubei has gone rogue, someone has very big brass balls.

When I said watch what happens with this selective "return to work initiative" for businesses deemed critical to the internal supply chain? Well, it blew up. One example: A whole shift showed up to a chip fab operation, one worker became ill on the job, and now they've got 200 critical employees huddled together under quarantine in the plant cafeteria. They somehow organized getting quilts but there's apparently no food. May god help them.

Maybe that was the straw that broke the camel's back with the daily stats and the sudden and heretofore missing outbreak of honesty.

Note that even this apparently shocking increase in cases is probably an order of magnitude low, IMO only. It can't count the poor slobs sheltering in place at home and I'm guessing they are legion, given they'd only be forced into a quarantine facility if they sought treatment. And there's no treatment to be had anyway. Oxygen is gone. An ICU bed is a dream.

Things are not good in China.

[Surf n Turf]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Things are not good in China.

Mugwump

SAN DIEGO LAB DISCOVERS CORONAVIRUS VACCINE IN 3 HOURS

Maybe some hope….. it may settle the current unrest in China, and perhaps stop a selloff on our markets…..IF IT IS TO BE BELIEVED

SnT

Inovio Pharmaceuticals created a vaccine that is going through pre-clinical trials.
SAN DIEGO — In a race against the clock, a San Diego lab is scrambling to get a COVID-19 vaccine out and on the market. As the days go by, Inovio Pharmaceuticals is getting closer to releasing the desperately needed vaccine against the deadly virus.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, which is located in Sorrento Valley, has also created a vaccine for the Zika virus, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), and the vaccine for Ebola.
https://www.kvue.com/amp/article/new...mpression=true

[mugwump]

Hope the vaccine story is true, but I don’t see how they could know if it works in the wild. They’re doing early Phase I trials, which is my rice bowl, and in those “turn blue” studies they just confirm that the vaccine doesn’t kill healthy, young volunteers. They’ll do antibody titers, sure, but that’s not the goal at this stage. Hope I’m wrong but the consensus I’m hearing is 18 months until there’s a legit vaccine, manufactured in sufficient quantity to be useful.

The only guys with the production capacity and know how to spin up vaccine in quantity are Glaxo, Merck, and Sanofi. I can say now I was on the Glaxo team during the last scare, and they in particular were badly burned by two-faced pols and lost buckets of money, enough to really hurt. I’m sure they’ll do the right thing but the pols have to get their indemnity and funding in line fast. It’s gonna be bloody expensive even if they do it on a break even basis. And then who gets the vaccine first from a Brit company? Or Sanofi in France? Hope Merck's involved.

We may just have to stand and take a beating with this one.

[mugwump]

A top journal preprint (undergoing peer review) funded by DARPA and Los Alamos (I’m guessing supercomputer time) has calculated the Ro to be 4.7-6.6. Which is yikes, we're buggered.

We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

The last hope is for the majority of cases to be mild. CIDRAP is guesstimating we're only catching and quarantining 1/3 of the positives flying in, so essentially, it’s here and containment will be difficult. So pray for <1% mortality and not the 5%-I don’t even want to say that researchers are estimating for China.

Gotta go, I have to clear my browser history.

[mugwump]

I’m not privy to anything not publicly sourced, but there seems to be a quiet consensus growing that this is so infectious that up to 60% of the world will have to be infected before this burns out. The disease has to achieve a Ro <1.0 before it even plateaus. We can achieve that with a vaccine, non-pharmacologic means (quarantine, hand washing, etc.) or a population that becomes immune by surviving the disease.

If we're truly starting with a Ro in the 5 range, getting below 1 is going to probably mean all three measures will come into play. Pray it has many mild cases. Pray that summer heat will give some respite, although surface viability rest have shown surprising heat tolerance.

It’s a f***ing weapon and it’s doing what is was designed to do.

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Hope I’m wrong but the consensus I’m hearing is 18 months until there’s a legit vaccine, manufactured in sufficient quantity to be useful.

The only guys with the production capacity and know how to spin up vaccine in quantity are Glaxo, Merck, and Sanofi.

China has thousands of bipedal lab rats already infected. You know that the Chinese are trying to get it via backdoor means and start injecting it to see if it works.

And what about the other vaccine which was already used on the first USA case, in Washington state? remdesivir. They should be updating his status in some publication.

I can't find the article on how the company developing remdesivir applied for a Chinese patent in 2016... Anyone got a URL to that info? The name of the company ?

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by mugwump

A top journal preprint (undergoing peer review) funded by DARPA and Los Alamos (I’m guessing supercomputer time) has calculated the Ro to be 4.7-6.6.
...
CIDRAP is guesstimating we're only catching and quarantining 1/3 of the positives flying in, so essentially, it’s here and containment will be difficult. So pray for <1% mortality and not the 5%-I don’t even want to say that researchers are estimating for China.

Got the URL or title to that preprint?

What is CIDRAP ?

[InTheBlack]

So Emetrol is nothing more than a flat Coke !!! Well, I haven't check the Potassium content... is that a critical ratio of ingredients? Why is it effective?

https://healthjade.com/emetrol/
>
Emetrol is a phosphorated carbohydrate (sugar) solution used for the relief of upset stomach associated with nausea due to overindulgence in food and drink. Emetrol active ingredients in each 5 mL are: 1.87 g Dextrose (glucose) + 1.87 g Levulose (fructose) + 21.5 mg Phosphoric acid

Inactive ingredients: FD&C red no. 40, flavors, glycerin, methylparaben, and purified water.
>