Social Impact of Wuhan Virus

[Gypsy]

Originally Posted by cbtengr

Easy to find how many folks have died from the virus but just try to find stats for those who have recovered.

I've been saying this for days now.

[Pete]

And the folks with mild symptoms who were just sent home without being tested and have recovered are not counted.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by 1stindoor

Same experiences at our house. Another part of the bigger problem is that the IT infrastructure isn't there to support thousands of school aged kids trying to log on at the same time and stream online content.

Our teen kids have been using supplementary education platforms like Khan Academy(all subjects), duo lingo(language), and AI math tutor Amy.app for years.

On top of the school digital platform.

Our kids’ school responded pretty quickly, so still reactive rather than proactive.

But our kids’ habits/behaviours have been little changed, they’re just doing more of the same at home.

——-

One thing to consider is higher education.

Universities have all been struggling with both a broken higher education model(bang for the buck is negative) and a fast growing digital model that will disrupt them.

Outside of the top 20 schools with the brands and the endowments to survive, there is a good chance of a massive slaughter in higher education over the next 12-18 months.

An argument can be made that this could reduce the safe haven’s of domestic adversaries.

Another argument can be made that destroying the safe haven income streams of domestic adversaries will see them shift towards more aggressive direct political action. That could get ugly, but it could bring adversaries more out into the open. Maybe it results in a Weather Underground 2.0

There will certainly be a very loud call for bailouts of universities.

At the federal level, my thought is that any federal funding boost to universities should be solely in the form of hard science only R&D with commercial potential and conditions around non citizen foreign graduate student access from some countries.

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by Badger52

We've had several blistering local editorials taking a particular telecomm provider to task for failed promises and their taking of 1/2 Billion dollars over some years to improve bandwidth to the outlying areas. It's not just the students having it available. A teacher, trying to conduct a class while quarantined, who also lives in an outlying/underserved area is often operating as if he/she had a 386 desktop on a late-80's ethernet in terms of speed. And trying to assemble & feed content to a class, on what amounts to the extra copper pair of their phone line.

The Big Mama Cable/Internet provider hasn't gotten their construction out there yet. They're trying as fast as they can to pickup where the Telco has failed. The provider being scalded is the Telco who said after de-reg in 1985 that they "just couldn't wait" to jump in and build infrastructure to get in on this internet thing. Gov't largesse went to some suits at the Telco, but it didn't put innerduct & FO cable & multiplexers in the ground.

And, like Special Forces Soldiers, they are not created using a just-in-time delivery model.

So you've seen/read the "Book of Broken Promises"?

This is a bit dated but a quick intro:

By the end of 2014, America will have been charged about $400 billion by the local phone incumbents, Verizon, AT&T and CenturyLink, for a fiber optic future that never showed up. And though it varies by state, counting the taxes, fees and surcharges that you have paid every month (many of these fees are actually revenues to the company or taxes on the company that you paid), it comes to about $4000-$5000.00 per household from 1992-2014, and that’s the low number

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by Flagg

There will certainly be a very loud call for bailouts of universities.

The progaganda rag down in Madison has been bellering (maybe every other day) how the UW stands to lose $100M. They screamed the same thing during a discussion of border area resident/non-res tuition awhile back. And they're still sitting with a $580M slush fund that no one seems to have questioned beyond the initial sound bites a few years back. Not regular books, not alumni - a slush fund. The place is rife with the usual 2nd world wonderful professors brought here with monstrous perks and high 6-figures who show up once a week to make sure their TA's are there.

They could be rethinking their biz model... but my guess is their big paws will be out like everyone else's, banking on one $2T bailout after another.

Meanwhile, now a total of 5 cases in the county; a young gal in her 20's and a gent in their 60's, all with mild symptoms, all at home. The 1st case down in the capital has been judged to have recovered. But I'm with cbtengr on not seeing the regular coverage of the recovered, tested negative stuff as much as the doom. Some stats I've found here (scrolling down) and clicking on a state breaks down to counties. But for some places that aren't "hot spots" and just feeling the punch, it's going to take awhile for cases to "clear."

Now back to our regular coverage of making notes in recreating my Mother's tamale pie...

[Ret10Echo]

Listened to a Rogan podcast today where he was interviewing Eric Weinstein. Eric has been really charged up lately on the whole mask-shortage issue and the failure of the political elites now that the chips are down. Some pretty strong words from him but I like how his thoughts come at different angles and how he structures his arguments. EW rolls through a cause and effect cycle in the first half of the interview....based on "masks" and misinformation.

Anyhow

Something that is interesting to me at least is pulling on the string that we don't MAKE anything here any longer. Thus the impact of "stay at home" and "non-essential" really strikes hard because we have become a service-industry or hospitality industry society. We don't build/make...we just consume. So the path that we have gone down is one where the corporate bottom line and the company leadership being beholding to stock-holders and boards has superseded the focus on whether or note outsourcing or moving overseas is good/bad for America. Well, that has come back home to roost.

It's a good long-format interview for those who have interest.

Joe Rogan Experience #1453 wherever you get your podcasts from


R10

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by Ret10Echo

So you've seen/read the "Book of Broken Promises"?

This is a bit dated but a quick intro:

Actually have not read, but thanks for the intro. I might try to find it but also recognize it might just increase my PO'd level unnecessarily, lol. I was actually in a meeting with the local branch (we were demarc point at the base for all their circuits coming in) and these guys had engineers in the room that were fired up at the prospect of a new frontier, internet, multi-media, maybe even play in bringing CATV to the home on their wire. Oh, Brudda. I hope they didn't get their idealistic young hearts too broken.

Here's the 2nd side of the blade - both sharpened. Before retirement HH6 attended a meeting in La Crosse that included a regional VP from Charter Comm (now Spectrum). They were (and remain) pretty much the only game in town unless one does the "have internet connection, do Hulu, Netflix stuff" kinda thing. Woman sitting next to wife asked this exec why they charged higher rates on this side of the river, while in MN (where there was competition) the same packages & service are cheaper. The exec looked her dead in the eye and said:

"Because we can."

As we've all since found out, the big comm providers have literally had their Yalta and divided CONUS up between them.

The chickens have come home to roost in the inability of Mainstreet USA to switch gears to online learning when needed. So PO'd teachers and students both. (Shit, imagine that a snow day isn't really a snow day and young Heathers & Trents have to get online instead?)

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Badger52

The progaganda rag down in Madison has been bellering (maybe every other day) how the UW stands to lose $100M. They screamed the same thing during a discussion of border area resident/non-res tuition awhile back. And they're still sitting with a $580M slush fund that no one seems to have questioned beyond the initial sound bites a few years back. Not regular books, not alumni - a slush fund. The place is rife with the usual 2nd world wonderful professors brought here with monstrous perks and high 6-figures who show up once a week to make sure their TA's are there.

They could be rethinking their biz model... but my guess is their big paws will be out like everyone else's, banking on one $2T bailout after another.

Meanwhile, now a total of 5 cases in the county; a young gal in her 20's and a gent in their 60's, all with mild symptoms, all at home. The 1st case down in the capital has been judged to have recovered. But I'm with cbtengr on not seeing the regular coverage of the recovered, tested negative stuff as much as the doom. Some stats I've found here (scrolling down) and clicking on a state breaks down to counties. But for some places that aren't "hot spots" and just feeling the punch, it's going to take awhile for cases to "clear."

Now back to our regular coverage of making notes in recreating my Mother's tamale pie...

I’m familiar with the endowments of a few of the top ranked schools.

I know most schools out of the top 20 offer particularly poor return on investment, with few exceptions, if not hard science or tangible degree related.

I had no idea about slush funds.

That should get interesting.

When the hammer falls on school cashflow if Fall semester is impacted, it will be interesting to see where they lash out.

Federal government, state government, and/or each other to save their own feathered nests.

I’m not so much for losing schools, but more for losing useless programs and excess bloat.

[frostfire]

Originally Posted by LongWire

Malls are definitely not worth it, unless of course you are looking at repurposing.

I know that Google swallowed up the Westwood mall in L.A., Im thinking that they are using it as a server farm, of course they kept the food court.....

My point is that Amazon is killing Malls across America. Millennials aren't going to the Mall, they are getting together on Insta and Tik Tok etc....YMMV

All, if I may shamelessly do market research once more...
I'm OCONUS now so questions for those stuck in quarantine esp with kids at home
- Are you/they itching to go to movie theater?
- Would you pay 20% more if they open but with seats 6 feet apart (and thus have to compensate for expenses)

If you look at several theater chain and REIT than rents out to them, the prices have been wiped out 80% plus. I have a SWAG that 1. Studios are itching to push movies that are being cancelled in march-april-May out in june-July and 2. Kids are itching to go back to summer movie theater experience even if they have to wear masks. If ticket sales go through the roof then, even if the $$$ doesn't justify record earning, the positive emotional sentiment should be enough to send prices 20-30% higher!

Thought I'd get some reality check before putting $$$

[1stindoor]

Originally Posted by frostfire

All, if I may shamelessly do market research once more...
I'm OCONUS now so questions for those stuck in quarantine esp with kids at home
- Are you/they itching to go to movie theater?
- Would you pay 20% more if they open but with seats 6 feet apart (and thus have to compensate for expenses)

If you look at several theater chain and REIT than rents out to them, the prices have been wiped out 80% plus. I have a SWAG that 1. Studios are itching to push movies that are being cancelled in march-april-May out in june-July and 2. Kids are itching to go back to summer movie theater experience even if they have to wear masks. If ticket sales go through the roof then, even if the $$$ doesn't justify record earning, the positive emotional sentiment should be enough to send prices 20-30% higher!

Thought I'd get some reality check before putting $$$

Up until about 5 weeks ago I usually went to the theater at least 2-3 times a month. It's one of my guilty pleasures. I'm also the guy that purchases the family size tub of popcorn and big drink...because I understand the theater needs that revenue to stay afloat. I don't know if the theater can effectively "survive" on higher prices and seats further apart. Besides the seating issue only addresses those actually in the theater...not those standing in line at the concession stand or buying tickets. If everyone has to stand 6' apart to do those things I suspect the wait times will increase exponentially...thus changing a two hour excursion into a 3 hour excursion...which again, will affect revenue. I think Hollyweird is going to have to look at earlier releases on PPV and streaming services and dramatically alter their profit expectations.

As a side note, Trolls World Tour was the first premiere movie to go straight to streaming/renting services....and they're crushing it.

Also, it's damned near impossible to eat popcorn with a mask or without touching your face. I refuse to watch a movie in a theater without popcorn.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by frostfire

All, if I may shamelessly do market research once more...
I'm OCONUS now so questions for those stuck in quarantine esp with kids at home
- Are you/they itching to go to movie theater?
- Would you pay 20% more if they open but with seats 6 feet apart (and thus have to compensate for expenses)

If you look at several theater chain and REIT than rents out to them, the prices have been wiped out 80% plus. I have a SWAG that 1. Studios are itching to push movies that are being cancelled in march-april-May out in june-July and 2. Kids are itching to go back to summer movie theater experience even if they have to wear masks. If ticket sales go through the roof then, even if the $$$ doesn't justify record earning, the positive emotional sentiment should be enough to send prices 20-30% higher!

Thought I'd get some reality check before putting $$$

To the 2 specific questions, No and No.

HH6 and I were just discussing this, following a TV segment that discussed what various studios are doing RE movies that would've been released. True, some are holding onto them, hoping to get them out later in the summer. But a not-insignificant number seem to be simply releasing them to be streamed at home and hence to the graveyard of DVD sales.

I wouldn't be surprised if the sheltering-in experience has, for some, revealed new & less-expensive entertainment avenues, whether it's streaming at one end or simply completely different alternatives to entertainment. Might be awhile before theaters recover. Interesting purchases seen in a Walmart parking lot aren't just cart-loads of TP. For some it's clear that this event has been the impetus to snag that big flat-screen and a home-theater audio system to go with it.

All that is said with the following disclaimer: Kids & grand-kids are still sitting on gift-cards given to them at Christmas for the local theater chain. If the theater opens up, those will get used. Amidst all the "support local" advertising going on, I've not seen the Marcus Theater chain do any of that to encourage purchase of gift cards for use "later" (whatever that is).

[7624U]

Originally Posted by Ret10Echo

Listened to a Rogan podcast today where he was interviewing Eric Weinstein. Eric has been really charged up lately on the whole mask-shortage issue and the failure of the political elites now that the chips are down. Some pretty strong words from him but I like how his thoughts come at different angles and how he structures his arguments. EW rolls through a cause and effect cycle in the first half of the interview....based on "masks" and misinformation.

Anyhow

Something that is interesting to me at least is pulling on the string that we don't MAKE anything here any longer. Thus the impact of "stay at home" and "non-essential" really strikes hard because we have become a service-industry or hospitality industry society. We don't build/make...we just consume. So the path that we have gone down is one where the corporate bottom line and the company leadership being beholding to stock-holders and boards has superseded the focus on whether or note outsourcing or moving overseas is good/bad for America. Well, that has come back home to roost.

It's a good long-format interview for those who have interest.

Joe Rogan Experience #1453 wherever you get your podcasts from


R10

I have always said anything with a (ism) at the end of it is bad. Capitalism when taken to a extreme is bad.
free market economy is good when you have fair profit for work.

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by Badger52

Actually have not read, but thanks for the intro. I might try to find it but also recognize it might just increase my PO'd level unnecessarily, lol.

If you look around you can find it as a free ebook. If you like the smell of paper and ink then places like Amazon carry it

Link here

580 pages

[Pete]

Looking at a problem that is a month out but needs to be addressed now.

"Coronavirus economic threat -- A mortgage industry calamity is looming"

https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-est...ustry-calamity

"The coronavirus pandemic is perhaps the single biggest crisis to hit the U.S. economy since the 1930s. Large swaths of the U.S. economy have been idled and particularly the services sector is being decimated in a way that harkens back to the Great Depression. Double-digit unemployment seems inevitable by June, with all of the attendant economic and financial consequences. Amidst this chaos and dislocation, the U.S. housing industry should be a bulwark upon which the economy may find support. After all, virtually all residential mortgages and many multi-family commercial loans in the U.S. are government-guaranteed, right?..."

And what your house is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by Ret10Echo

If you look around you can find it as a free ebook. If you like the smell of paper and ink then places like Amazon carry it

Link here

580 pages

Thanks for that. Will see if I can snag it; we have a pretty decent interlibrary loan system & some branch may have an eBook version as well.