03-29-2020, 13:56
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#751
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Fayetteville
Posts: 13,080
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A point on death numbers.
Don't have the true numbers just the ball park.
About 2 weeks ago we were told the death numbers would be going up exponentially by this time more than doubling each day.
Big news was made today about the death rate doubling in two days.
Well, we crept up to 1,000 slowly and then had two days of 400+ and 500+ so we're just over 2,000. The estimates 2 weeks ago, if played out, would have us at 2,400 deaths today and 4,800 tomorrow.
Right now we're at 215 today - usually a big bump up after 2100 hrs.
All this with still a lot of resistance to Orange Man Bad drugs.
It still ain't good - but not as bad as the press is pumping it up to be.
Just my opinion of course
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Pete is offline
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03-29-2020, 14:07
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#752
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: 18 yrs upstate NY, 30 yrs South Florida, 20 yrs Conch Republic, now chasing G-Kids in NOVA & UK
Posts: 11,901
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This was posted on FB today, Probably inaccurate, but it would help if someone could put the virus in perspective for the masses 
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Go raibh tú leathuair ar Neamh sula mbeadh a fhios ag an diabhal go bhfuil tú marbh
"May you be a half hour in heaven before the devil knows you’re dead"
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JJ_BPK is offline
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03-29-2020, 14:38
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#753
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Area Commander
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Page/Lake Powell, Arizona
Posts: 3,450
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With every new public release of numbers, the media and politicians try to tell us what it means.
For the most part, this information is useless without the largely unknown contextual data.
This guy has put together the best analysis I've seen:
https: //youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc
About 5 minutes into the video a very important point is made about the difference between actual vs known cases.
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Waiting for the perfect moment is a fruitless endeavor.
Make a decision, and then make it the right one through your actions.
"Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap." -Ecclesiastes 11:4 (NIV)
Last edited by GratefulCitizen; 03-29-2020 at 14:55.
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GratefulCitizen is offline
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03-29-2020, 14:56
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#754
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: 18 yrs upstate NY, 30 yrs South Florida, 20 yrs Conch Republic, now chasing G-Kids in NOVA & UK
Posts: 11,901
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No disrespect, but the guy is a major raving progressive leftist.
On his FB page rants, rants, rants, and rants on.
link to fb: Middleboro Review
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Go raibh tú leathuair ar Neamh sula mbeadh a fhios ag an diabhal go bhfuil tú marbh
"May you be a half hour in heaven before the devil knows you’re dead"
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JJ_BPK is offline
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03-29-2020, 15:05
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#755
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Area Commander
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Page/Lake Powell, Arizona
Posts: 3,450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJ_BPK
No disrespect, but the guy is a major raving progressive leftist.
On his FB page rants, rants, rants, and rants on.
link to fb: Middleboro Review |
Don't doubt it.
His analysis of the information is spot-on, from a mathematical point of view, and the data model was constructed by somebody else.
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__________________
Waiting for the perfect moment is a fruitless endeavor.
Make a decision, and then make it the right one through your actions.
"Whoever watches the wind will not plant; whoever looks at the clouds will not reap." -Ecclesiastes 11:4 (NIV)
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GratefulCitizen is offline
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03-29-2020, 16:00
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#756
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Area Commander
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Western WI
Posts: 7,043
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete
Just my opinion of course
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I happen to agree with you. The main press apparatus do not seem (to me) to be differentiating in the things that count (literally) when doing numbers. It's as if they don't have anyone's campaign coffers to count anymore and are just trying to keep score.
A case is discovered from a traveller; then 8 cases are discovered that are now  "community spread." Could be me but it seems that they aren't bothering much to cover that, as investigations continue, the numbers themselves are going to climb. It's one of those silly 1st grade counting things, no? This, coupled with the most vulnerable getting the sickest and, perhaps frankly, they came to the end of their life which coincides with how long someone on a vent is typically on one before succumbing. Thus, bump in the death total. (?)
Perhaps an oversimplifcation but if they weren't so busy trying to insure that they could keep "All Virus All the Time" content updated, perhaps they could endeavor to do as good a job as that one breakdown we saw recently from the Houston area. I frankly get more/better information from the local folks who are joined at the hip with the county health dept.
I don't think one particular thing (the rant du jour from the talking heads) is going to fix shit. PPE to the health care providers & first responders - anyone holding on to warehoused stocks of same will be put in stocks w/o sustenance on the National Mall. Go after the anti-malarial regimen, and get the rapid testing methods that look promising (e.g., the Abbott Labs proposal) out. Any bureaukrat in the way is fired.
And, also just my opinion, the big metro hive denizens don't have the first clue as to what it means to isolate.
[/rant]
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"Civil Wars don't start when a few guys hunt down a specific bastard. Civil Wars start when many guys hunt down the nearest bastards."
The coin paid to enforce words on parchment is blood; tyrants will not be stopped with anything less dear. - QP Peregrino
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Badger52 is offline
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03-29-2020, 19:49
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#757
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Where the Trade Winds blow
Posts: 711
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pete
A point on death numbers.
It still ain't good - but not as bad as the press is pumping it up to be.
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I think the number we should be focusing on is how many people are being hospitalized. After all, that’s the idea of flattening the curve. Unfortunately, The virus is going to do it’s job. But if the system is overwhelmed then we will lose people who could otherwise be saved.
For example, on Thursday I saw that NY city had about 5000 patients hospitalized.
No idea how many it can handle but that is the number that matters most IMO.
LHC
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Last edited by Last hard class; 03-29-2020 at 20:12.
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Last hard class is offline
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03-29-2020, 20:34
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#758
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Area Commander
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Cochise Co., AZ
Posts: 6,208
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Last hard class
For example, on Thursday I saw that NY city had about 5000 patients hospitalized.
No idea how many it can handle but that is the number that matters most IMO.
LHC
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I saw something similar, but I'm also reading tweets and other direct sources that are saying that there are hospitals in NY that have no COVID-19 patients. Is there a reason (government order perhaps) that patients can't be transferred to other hospitals?
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"The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress." -- Frederick Douglass
"The bigger the government, the smaller the citizen." -- Dennis Prager
"The urge to save humanity is almost always only a false-face for the urge to rule it." --H.L. Mencken
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PSM is offline
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03-29-2020, 21:38
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#759
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,954
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The first confirmed case of COVID 19 in the U.S. was on 20 January 2020. As of March 29, 2020, 69 days later, the CDC is reporting 122,653 confirmed cases, although this is likely a low-ball estimate due to a lack of widespread testing.
The first and second confirmed cases of H1N1 in the US were on 15 April 2009 and 17 April 2009. On 25 June 2009, 71 days after the first confirmed case, the CDC estimated the US had reached one million cases of H1N1.
That seems significant. Again, you can argue that the case estimate is way too low for the coronavirus, but I don't recall widespread testing and quarantining in 2009, so arguably the H1N1 estimate was also a low-ball.
The questions I have are: does this reflect an effective flattening of the curve with regard to COVID 19, or is COVID 19 not nearly as virulent as H1N1? Or am I missing some other factor(s)?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-res...-timeline.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ses-in-us.html
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Airbornelawyer is offline
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03-29-2020, 23:38
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#760
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Savannah, GA
Posts: 2,308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gypsy
ABC_123 my prayers are with you and your family.
It's disturbing to me that the hospitals are not allowing family in, patients need advocates.
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If you are positive for COVID 19 and are in the hospital you will either survive or die on your own. No family. No human contact. Alone.
Sure, attended by caring Nurses (who will have issues later on), but no human contact, only infrequent contact wile suited up. You will live or die by yourself in your quarantined bubble.
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The Main Thing is to keep the Main Thing the Main Thing
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abc_123 is offline
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03-30-2020, 03:14
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#761
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Area Commander
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Lone Star
Posts: 2,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JJ_BPK
1. Hydroxychloroquine 200mg twice a day for 5 days
2. Azithromycin 500mg once a day for 5 days
3. Zinc sulfate 220mg once a day for 5 days
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Thank you for the post. I had to refresh my patho and pharma.
This vid has been helping a lot (don't judge the dude by his outfit!)
COVID-19 | Corona Virus: Treatment, Prognosis, Precautions
youknowhatdotcom/watch?v=rdoN_XsHWBI
It will also help understand the course of care for our loved ones that the doc is explaining in greek  ie. ARDS --> SIRS --> MODS --> ....
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"we also rejoice in our sufferings, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope" Rom. 5:3-4
"So we can suffer, and in suffering we know who we are" David Goggins
"Aide-toi, Dieu t'aidera " Jehanne, la Pucelle
Der, der Geld verliert, verliert einiges;
Der, der einen Freund verliert, verliert viel mehr;
Der, der das Vertrauen verliert, verliert alles.
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frostfire is offline
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03-30-2020, 05:40
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#762
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Occupied America....
Posts: 4,740
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSM
I saw something similar, but I'm also reading tweets and other direct sources that are saying that there are hospitals in NY that have no COVID-19 patients. Is there a reason (government order perhaps) that patients can't be transferred to other hospitals?
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It doesn't break the City our separately but this gives some sense of capacity
HERE
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Ret10Echo is offline
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03-30-2020, 09:11
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#763
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: State of Confusion
Posts: 5,933
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PSM
I saw something similar, but I'm also reading tweets and other direct sources that are saying that there are hospitals in NY that have no COVID-19 patients...
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A family member in Atlanta talked with my wife - concerned because of local Atlanta news about the catastrophic state of COVID-19 where me and my wife live...
...which, is simply not true.
I've talked with my brother who lives in Atlanta and while it isn't good, he certainly didn't describe his local situation as catastrophic mess that I am seeing on the news where I live. My mom over reacts to everything and even she has a less than apocalyptic outlook on her local situation.
So... is it just me or does this type of disparity in reporting only make for a bigger shit show ??
American culture pressured me into finishing my degree - my degree path forced me to take statistics - statistics class forced me to acknowledge that numbers don't lie, but it also reinforced the fact that PEOPLE with numbers lie and misrepresent those numbers as though there is no tomorrow.
Because of so much hanging at the house I WATCHED the segment when Dr Fauci made his comments about 200,000 possible deaths from COVID-19
I also watched when he added the caveat that such modeling is based on worst case scenario algorithms. Oddly, no mention of such additional statements in the news. Only news reports that the governments top COVID doc just said that over 200,000 Americans are going to die from COVID-19.
It's so fucking hyper sensationalized that even PAO statements now mention the foretasted 200,000 threat statistics as though its a done deal.
Is it serious - you bet your ass this is serious. A pandemic viral infection is ALWAYS serious. There is a reason why every flu season people make such a big deal about being vaccinated - proper health care measures are well known for extending human life. The annual flu season KILLS PEOPLE. A pandemic virus KILLS PEOPLE.
The problem is, our culture has deteriorated into one that demands instant gratification, practices savage oneupsmanship, and willingly submits to the rabid impulse to politicize and overhype EVERYTHING...
...so here we are.
Whats real ??
Somebody is wrong and someone is reporting inaccurate information.
Who knows - maybe politicians and the media are telling us the truth and our family members, friends, Twitter, Facebook, and other randomly located direct sources are the ones that cannot be trusted. Disease is a very personal issue so I would tend to favor personal reporting as far more reliable than any source of "truth" that I get from a modern media outlet. FOX, MSDNC, CNN, CBS, ABC - the network alphabet reporting has become nothing more than white noise to me.
People are sick and dying from an angry virus - that much is fact - every single discussion beyond that quickly disposes itself of fact in order to keep the discussion going.
Interesting times for sure.
My garage redesign is going nicely. Since I usually keep my freezer full even when I'm not being threatened by a pandemic apocalypse, I'm going to spend my time at home smoking some delicious meats for diner this week.
Hopefully I won't get sick and die.
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Opinions stated in this post are solely those of the author, and in no way reflect the opinions or policies of The Department of Defense, The United States Army, The Royal Canadian Mounted Police, The Screen Actors Guild, The Boy Scouts, The Good, The Bad, or The Ugly. These opinions are provided purely as overly sarcastic social commentary and are not meant to be used for mission planning or navigation.
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Last edited by Box; 03-30-2020 at 09:13.
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Box is offline
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03-30-2020, 09:14
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#764
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Mar 2012
Location: Occupied Northlandia
Posts: 1,697
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Not sure if this has been posted yet. I can’t go thru each post.
This is a great resource for understanding the WCV and all of the factors in treating and preventing the spread.
Most notable are the vids containing the chloroquine references, to understand how and why it works (think Zinc)
You do need to sign up (free) on the site, otherwise you might find the vids somewhere else on YT.
https://www.medcram.com
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"The rifle itself has no moral stature, since it has no will of its own. Naturally, it may be used by evil men for evil purposes, but there are more good men than evil, and while the latter cannot be persuaded to the path of righteousness by propaganda, they can certainly be corrected by good men with rifles." — Jeff Cooper
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miclo18d is offline
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03-30-2020, 09:31
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#765
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Area Commander
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Lone Star
Posts: 2,153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by miclo18d
Not sure if this has been posted yet. I can’t go thru each post.
This is a great resource for understanding the WCV and all of the factors in treating and preventing the spread.
Most notable are the vids containing the chloroquine references, to understand how and why it works (think Zinc)
You do need to sign up (free) on the site, otherwise you might find the vids somewhere else on YT.
https://www.medcram.com |
I can vouch for the YT videos. I've been following along since COVID day 1. Sometimes he gets really deep in the weeds but I highly prefer his objective, just the facts, reporting than anything in twitter, MSM, facebook, etc. I've been using his ventilator series to refresh my skill working with one
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"we also rejoice in our sufferings, because we know that suffering produces perseverance; perseverance, character; and character, hope" Rom. 5:3-4
"So we can suffer, and in suffering we know who we are" David Goggins
"Aide-toi, Dieu t'aidera " Jehanne, la Pucelle
Der, der Geld verliert, verliert einiges;
Der, der einen Freund verliert, verliert viel mehr;
Der, der das Vertrauen verliert, verliert alles.
INDNJC
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frostfire is offline
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