Pandemic Flu

[The Reaper]

Nothing like the taste of Grape Kool-Aid with the added tang of a metal canteen.

TR

[Lanyard]

Australia has a few more weeks to go before the peak of their Flu season. In one week 250 kids were admitted to one hospital in Perth.

Western Australia hospitals 'under seige': AMA

4th August 2009, 17:00 WST

A meltdown in West Australian hospitals during peak flu season could have given the federal government an excuse to take them over, says the state branch of the Australian Medical Association.

AMA WA president Gary Geelhoed said WA hospitals had been under siege for the past week, with patients suffering unnecessarily through long waiting times.

Most of the state’s elective surgery arrangements have been cancelled because of a bed shortage and ambulances have been forced to wait outside hospitals because there are no beds to take patients to, Prof Geelhoed said.

“For more than a week, our hospitals have been under siege and the situation is growing more serious by the day,” he said.

Some patients had waited six hours to be seen by a doctor in the emergency department on Monday night and some had to wait 24 hours for a hospital bed, Prof Geelhoed said.

He said the state had no capacity to deal with increased patient numbers during the flu season.

While the ideal situation was to have 85 per cent occupancy rates in hospitals, WA was working at close to 100 per cent capacity, he said.

“We just don’t have capacity in reserve,” Prof Geelhoed said.

“We just cannot do the work, we can’t deal with the sick, we can’t deal with the injured, we can’t deal with fluctuations due to swine flu. The hospitals go into meltdown.”

However, while Health Minister Kim Hames agreed hospitals were under “enormous pressure” he said the State Government was working hard to support them.

Dr Hames conceded while emergency departments were struggling, they were not beyond capacity.

“We have opened up every bed – we’ve got all our nurses working,” Dr Hames said.

“The advice I am getting from hospitals is they are under enormous pressure but are coping well.”

The fundamental problem was a lack of hospital beds across the nation, which has been reduced by 60 per cent in the past 25 years, Prof Geelhoed said.

Cost shifting and buck passing because of the different funding models - some State and some Commonwealth - were a problem, he said.

“The danger is that unless our hospitals can perform better, the Federal Government could have the excuse to take them over and that would be a disaster in our view,” Prof Geelhoed said.

Australian Nursing Federation WA secretary Mark Olson said the AMA should be wary of using the term ‘meltdown’ as it could erode the public’s confidence in WA hospitals.

But Prof Geelhoed said while the Federal Government had identified the problems in the health system, it had failed to fix the problems.

Funding administered by the State Government or smaller local authorities would avoid cost shifting between in and out-patient programs and create more efficiency in the system, Prof Geelhoed said.

LISA CALAUTTI AND AAP

http://www. thewest.com.au/ default....ntentID=160036

[Lanyard]

While some here may be familiar with this interview, as it has been replicated in countless blogs, I think it has generally been taken out of context. The epidemiologist, Tom Jefferson, works for the Cochrane Collaboration which "is a global network of dedicated volunteers, supported by a small staff. We rely on grants and donations, and don't accept conflicted funding." They essentially review common medical practices to see if they really work or not. Jefferson has been in charge of reviewing seasonal influenza vaccine related studies for the past 15 years.

Many have used the interview to point to some shadowy cabal of Pharma/WHO/Public Health Officials that have financial/professional interests in propogating the Flu pandemic scare. While everyone here can draw their own conclusions about the Medical/Phama Complex he does make some very valid points that haven't really been seen much.

1. The oft quoted 30,000-40,000 Common Flu deaths is just an estimate and likely includes as many as "200 different viruses that cause influenza-like illness" and "What I know is that real influenza is systematically overestimated."

2. The reason influenza is so in the public eye is that Pharma likes to sponsor big studies that get published in prestigous journals and the resulting talented/ambitious Dr's are attracted to the field who in turn work on more great well funded studies and get published in prestigeouse journals.

3. The myopic focus of the above is actually dangerous as it creates huge blind spots in research in other fields that might help with SARS (coronavirus), bocavirus and my favorite, the metapneumovirus.

4. The final points are more commonly known; vaccines are expensive, time intensive endevours that are marginally effective as they are tracking a moving and changing target, and handwashing is a very cheap and effective counter measure that also works against a lot of other nasty infections. Masks aren't a bad thought either.

http://www. spiegel.de/ international/world/0,1518,637119,00.html

[InTheBlack]

Use the original KoolAid packets (the ones you have to add the sugar to).

Didn't know they made it that way !

[Richard]

On the bright side of all this forecasted gloominess - looks to be a banner year for professional substitute teachers and office temps.

Richard's $.02

[zpo]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

Didn't know they made it that way !

I actually thought that was the only way, I haven't been koolaid shopping in awhile. And the only friend I know of that drinks it, boils the water to get more sugar into it...

[InTheBlack]

What fraction of the cells in one's body actually become infected by influenza virus? I presume that users of these drugs don't drop dead of apoptosis when they get the flu...

From the TV ads I get the impression that osteoporesis drugs have some significant side effects; I wonder if taking them for a short period when one gets flu symptoms is inadvisable or not.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090814/hl_nm/us_flu_drug_1

Fri Aug 14, 6:46 am ET
HONG KONG (Reuters) – Two existing drugs used to treat osteoporosis may be effective in killing influenza viruses, including the new H1N1 swine flu and the H5N1 bird flu viruses, researchers in Hong Kong have found.
The two drugs are pamidronate and zoledronate, which are marketed by Novartis AG under the brand names Aredia and Reclast, respectively.
In their experiment, the researchers exposed human cells that had been infected with the influenza viruses to the two drugs.
They observed that the drugs triggered extra production of a type of white blood cell called yd-T cells, which went on to kill human cells that were infected with the flu viruses.
Flu viruses can only replicate in living human or animal cells and killing infected cells would stop the viruses from replicating, the researchers said.
Professor Lau Yu-lung at the University of Hong Kong's pediatrics and adolescent medicine department described the infected human cells as "factories that will produce viruses."
"These drugs attack the viruses specifically ... This approach kills the factories that are producing viruses."
Malik Peiris, also part of the research team, said the drugs could enhance immune responses of the human body.
That was especially important as flu viruses mutate constantly, which reduces the efficacy of vaccines, he added.
The researchers plan to move next into animal and then human clinical testing.

[InTheBlack]

Avian Influenza Strain Primes Brain for Parkinson's Disease

http://news.yahoo.com/s/usnw/2009081...YtYXZpYW5pbmZs

SNIP
research from St. Jude Children's Research Hospital.

In the August 10 online early edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers reported that mice which survived infection with an H5N1 flu strain were more likely than uninfected mice to develop brain changes associated with neurological disorders like Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases. Parkinson's and Alzheimer's involve loss of brain cells crucial to a variety of tasks, including movement, memory and intellectual functioning. The study revealed the H5N1 flu strain caused a 17 percent loss of the same neurons lost in Parkinson's as well as accumulation in certain brain cells of a protein implicated in both diseases.

"This avian flu strain does not directly cause Parkinson's disease, but it does make you more susceptible," said Richard Smeyne, Ph.D., associate member in St. Jude Developmental Neurobiology. Smeyne is the paper's senior author.

SNIP

Smeyne noted the work involved a single strain of the H5N1 flu virus, the A/Vietnam/1203/04 strain.

Early indications are that the H1N1 pandemic strain carries a low neurologic risk, said Richard Webby, Ph.D., director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Studies on the Ecology of Influenza in Animals and Birds, which is based at St. Jude. Webby, who is also an associate member of the St. Jude Department of Infectious Diseases, was not involved in the H5N1 study led by Smeyne.

SNIP

St. Jude researchers launched this study nearly three years ago in response to the threat posed by avian flu.

SNIP

the inflammation the infection triggered within the brain continued for months. It was similar to inflammation associated with inherited forms of Parkinson's. Although the tremor and movement problems disappeared as flu symptoms eased, investigators reported that 60 days later mice had lost roughly 17 percent of dopamine-producing cells in SNpc, a structure found in the midbrain.

Researchers also found evidence that the avian flu infection led to over-production of a protein found in the brain cells of individuals with both Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. The protein, alpha-synuclein, collected in H5N1-infected cells throughout the brain, including the midbrain where key dopamine-producing cells are located. There was little protein accumulation in the brain cells of uninfected mice.

The study marks the first time scientists were able to naturally trigger the protein build-up in an experimental Parkinson's system. "The virus activates this protein," Smeyne explained.
SNIP

[ZonieDiver]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Nothing like the taste of Grape Kool-Aid with the added tang of a metal canteen.

TR

During BCT in 1970, we had an "older guy" - must have been 25! - who was called "the professor" because that is what he looked like (as well as the fact that he possessed a college degree). He would put grape "Fizzies" in his canteen! (Remember those?) But the canteen was OD green plastic.

[Surf n Turf]

This is really going to encourage people to get the vaccination.
What happens when a really safe effective vaccine is developed
Was this on the News --- I must have missed it
SnT

Leaked letter reveals concern of neurologists over 25 deaths in America.
A warning that the new swine flu jab is linked to a deadly nerve disease has been sent by the Government to senior neurologists in a confidential letter.
The letter from the Health Protection Agency, the official body that oversees public health, has been leaked to The Mail on Sunday, leading to demands to know why the information has not been given to the public before the vaccination of millions of people, including children, begins.
It tells the neurologists that they must be alert for an increase in a brain disorder called Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS), which could be triggered by the vaccine.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...s-America.html

[mugwump]

The letter refers to the 1976 vaccine and not the current ones. This is very old news but certainly something to consider with the new vaccines. The 25 deaths were in 52 million people immunized (24% of the US herd). There were many additional cases of less serious GBS.

Comparing 1976 apples to apples: If 1/3 of the 52MM people had caught H1N1 and there was a 0.001 case fatality rate (the mildest of the projected CFRs for the current strain of swine flu and the one I currently think is the most probable) then 17,160 of those 52MM would have died from the flu. You have to consider that no vaccine confers 100% immunity (far from it actually) so not all of those 17,160 would have been save by the vaccine.

If the current 0.0035 (0.35%) fatality rate currently occurring in Argentina is applied then 60,600 of the 52MM people vaccinated would have otherwise died from the flu. If 2.4% died (the 1918 CFR) then 429,000 of the vaccinated 52MM would have died from flu.

Whether it's a good risk depends on the tox profile of the vaccine (currently unknown) and the eventual CFR (obviously also unknown). A crap shoot in other words.

From the current WHO release on H1N1 vaccines:

Special safety concerns
Influenza vaccines have been used for more than 60 years and have an established record of safety in all age groups. While some serious adverse events have been reported, these have been rare.

Nonetheless, special safety issues will inevitably arise during a pandemic when vaccine is administered on a massive scale. For example, adverse events too rare to show up even in a large clinical trial may become apparent when very large numbers of people receive a pandemic vaccine.

Some adverse events will be coincidental – that is, associated in time with vaccine administration, yet not directly caused by the vaccine. Genuine adverse events directly caused by the vaccine may also occur, but cannot be predicted in advance. Given the safety record of seasonal vaccines, such events are expected to be rare.

Time constraints mean that clinical data at the time when pandemic vaccines are first administered will inevitably be limited. Further testing of safety and effectiveness will need to take place after administration of the vaccine has begun.

For these reasons, WHO advises all countries administering pandemic vaccines to conduct intensive monitoring for safety and efficacy, and many countries have plans in place for doing so. On the positive side, mass vaccination campaigns can generate significant safety data within a few weeks.

International sharing of data from such post-marketing surveillance will be vital in guiding risk-benefit assessments and determining whether changes in vaccination policies are needed. WHO has developed standardized protocols for data collection and reporting in real-time, and will communicate findings to the international community via its web site.

[Stras]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Nothing like the taste of Grape Kool-Aid with the added tang of a metal canteen.TR

in addition to the water purification tablet laced water from an Army Water Buffalo.

[jasonglh]

This was in my email box today from Skyscape: H1N1 Can Cause Neurologic Complications in Children


On a related front the next county over has an outbreak working its way through the Job Corp training center with 50 some cases. We have 1 confirmed case here that made the local paper the same day we got the hospital wide email saying to refer all phone calls about the swine flu to the health dept. I think the phone system was locked up for the better part of the day with every dipshit calling. We now have 2 self contained breathing hoods that make me look like the white Darth Vader or a bee keeper. We were supposed to get 20 of them 2 years ago from some federal grant which I am sure will arrive sometime after hell freezes over.

Whats really frightening is the ignorance of the facts about the current virus from the MD's and management who are supposed to be having meetings about it.

[Surf n Turf]

Why would a parent enroll their child into such a program as a guinea pig.
Shouldn’t these “trial programs” be conducted in a “controlled study”.
SnT

IPS Research in Oklahoma City is the first Oklahoma company to conduct the vaccination trials and will begin enrolling study patients Aug. 17. said IPS Research medical director Dr. Louise Thurman. She anticipates about 200 children ages 3 to 8 will be able to enroll.
Nationwide, 12,000 children will be given the vaccine for the trial, she said. The company should know today whether it will conduct adult trials, too.
http://newsok.com/state-kids-to-get-...rticle/3387609

HEADLINE IS WRONG --
12,000 Oklahoma children to be tested with new H1N1 flu vaccine to see any side effects

Because H1N1 flu is a novel virus, parents are concerned as 12,000 children in Oklahoma are going to be tested with vaccinations for H1N1 to see whether there are any serious side effects.
Among the parents' fears are the fear of autism, fear of children becoming paralyzed by novel reactions similar to the syndrome that occured with a different type of swine flu vaccine in 1976.
What happened next is that the great swine flu epidemic of 1976 ceased being reported in the media after a long media blitz to get vaccinated as soon as the paralyzed victims side effects were reported. The reason why is that it took two weeks to a month before the side effects appeared. Referring to the 1976 swine flu vaccination media campaing, the JAMA article notes, "The long onset interval and low prevalence of other preexisting illnesses are consistent with a possible causal association between GBS and influenza vaccine."
As the 12,000 children are being tested in Oklahoma, parents and doctors alike report that there can't be any questions as to whether the vaccines are safe or not. As the children receive the vaccines, the manufacturers of the vaccines won't know until many people are vaccinated what side effects will show up at a later date.
http://www.examiner.com/x-7160-Sacra...y-side-effects

[InTheBlack]

I have not read anything suggesting that this vaccine is any more dangerous than any other flu vaccine.

Are they exposing the initially vaccinated cohort to a weakened version of H1N1 or to the wild virus?