Pandemic Flu

[The Reaper]

Hmm.

Where is the media coverage of this?

TR

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNe...rpc=22&sp=true

Parts of Britain "near an H1N1 epidemic"; 14 dead
Thu Jul 9, 2009 12:30pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - Fourteen Britons who had contracted H1N1 flu have died and the rapid spread of infection in two areas of the country is close to epidemic level, health officials said on Thursday.

The Department of Health said Britain now had 9,718 laboratory-confirmed cases, the third most in the world behind the United States and Mexico.

Britain's Chief Medical Officer Liam Donaldson said the actual number of cases was likely to be higher.

All 14 who have died had underlying health issues and it was not clear in how many cases the patients had died as a direct result of the virus, known as swine flu.

"In London and the West Midlands we are getting pretty close to epidemic levels. We've seen big surges there," Donaldson told

BBC TV.

"For the country as a whole, the average is about the level of the flu season but in some parts of the country the levels are getting pretty big."

The World Health Organization declared on June 11 that the outbreak of the virus was a pandemic and more than 94,500 cases have been reported worldwide.

Health Minister Andy Burnham said last week the government was projecting more than 100,000 new cases a day of the flu by the end of August.

While most people who have caught the infection have suffered mild symptoms, in a small minority it has proven more severe.

The Department of Health said that 335 people in Britain were currently in hospital after contracting the infection, with 43 of those described as critical.

Donaldson said there were no signs the virus was becoming more virulent, although he warned it could mutate.

"It does tend to affect people with underlying illnesses quite severely and a small number of healthy adults can get the severe complications of flu but the majority of them get a mild illness," he said. (Reporting by Michael Holden; Editing by Louise Ireland and Steve Addison)

[Richard]

Donaldson said there were no signs the virus was becoming more virulent, although he warned it could mutate.

"It does tend to affect people with underlying illnesses quite severely and a small number of healthy adults can get the severe complications of flu but the majority of them get a mild illness," he said.

"It is not the strongest species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change."

- Charles Darwin

Richard's $.02

[mugwump]

And there are worse things going on in Argentina, flu-wise, than in the UK.

The press has lost interest. They can't use the issue to flog Bush anymore and hey, there's Michael Jackson to eulogize. They will wake up in the fall when we first exceed respirator capacity and hospitals implement their triage protocols.

What I find interesting is how they always repeat the mantra about the dead having underlying conditions. Pretty broad category, because the WHO list of underlying conditions for H1N1 includes individuals who are overweight (not obese, just outside the ideal range for height), pregnant, have ever had a single episode of asthma, have metabolic syndrome (basically sloppy and pre-diabetic), are sedentary, and on and on.

My guess is that 50% of the US population qualifies as having underlying conditions according to the guidelines.

[Paslode]

Sent: Thu 7/9/2009 10:25 AM

From: John O. Brennan, The White House [info@messages.whitehouse.gov]

Subject: Preparing for H1N1 and the upcoming flu season

As the President's advisor on Homeland Security, I am passing along the following message from Kathleen Sebelius, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Janet Napolitano, Secretary of Homeland Security, and Arne Duncan, Secretary of Education, who are leading the efforts to prepare our Nation for the coming flu season.

Fellow Americans,

This spring we were confronted with an outbreak of a troubling flu virus called 2009-H1N1. As the fall flu season approaches, it is critical that we reinvigorate our preparedness efforts across the country in order to mitigate the effects of this virus on our communities.

Today, we are holding an H1N1 Influenza Preparedness Summit in conjunction with the White House to discuss our Nation's preparedness. We are working together to monitor the spread of 2009-H1N1 and to prepare to initiate a voluntary fall vaccination program against the 2009-H1N1 flu virus, assuming we have a safe vaccine and do not see changes in the virus that would render the vaccine ineffective.

But the most critical steps to mitigating the effects of 2009-H1N1 won't take place in Washington — they will take place in your homes, schools and community businesses.

Taking precautions for this fall's flu season is a responsibility we all share. Visit Flu.gov to make sure you are ready and learn how you can help promote public awareness.

We are making every effort to have a safe and effective vaccine available for distribution as soon as possible, but our current estimate is that it won't be ready before mid-October. This makes individual prevention even more critical. Wash your hands regularly. Take the necessary precautions to stay healthy and if you do get sick, stay home from work or school.

We are doing everything possible to prepare for the fall flu season and encourage all Americans to do the same — this is a shared responsibility and now is the time to prepare. Please visit Flu.gov to learn what steps you can take to prepare and do your part to mitigate the effects of H1N1.

Take Care,
Kathleen, Janet and Arne

I can't wait to see what the PLAN.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by mugwump

...She was positive for swine flu and was a guest of the Oz gov't for a week. ... Total bill was $70US for a week's stay with Tamiflu and IV fluids.

I got the rest of the bill yesterday. Any Australians following this thread can rest assured that the gov't made a profit on her stay.

[doctom54]

NEJM
http://content.nejm.org/cgi/content/.../112?query=TOC
Has a good article on how hard it is to make good policy when hard data is difficult to come by. Especially early in an epidemic of a new influenza when the true mortality rate isn't known.
I had an employee return from Mexico Monday with fever and chills starting 12 hours after returning and about 8 hours before reporting to work. After many phone calls and other crap I got a rapid (8 hours later) result of positive for Influenza A. Only the state lab can type for H1N1. They refused to type it.
Makes me wonder how this one will be reported. CDC says 99% of influenza A's in week 25 are H1N1.

[mugwump]

A pithy report on new research with clarifying quotes from the principal investigator: New flu resembles feared 1918 virus: study They report primary H1N1 viral infection deeper in the lungs, which also implies (at least to me) a higher risk of follow-on bacterial pneumonia.

On a different tack, it's instructive to look at the reports coming right now out of Argentina. It's a mess down there and the southern hemisphere season is just starting to get into full swing. Some reports have some regional death rates at over 2% (which is 1918 levels) but I strongly suspect that is due to under-reporting the total number of cases. But who knows? Schools closed, H1N1 "bank holidays", sporting events canceled, etc. Masks, gloves, hand sanitizer, Tamiflu all nonexistent and fights breaking out in stores when anything does become available. Flights from Brazil and Venezuela cancelled. Land routes closed by Uruguay, Paraguay.

The Argie gov't did a horrible job of informing the populace and instead tried to cover up the true severity of the problem. Lots of lessons, hope we're learning. And I hope an effective vaccine arrives in time for our season.

[Saoirse]

30 More Swine Flu Cases Reported At AF Academy
Fewer In Isolation Thursday
Written by Wayne Harrison, Web Editor

POSTED: 9:16 am MDT July 16, 2009
AIR FORCE ACADEMY, Colo. -- Thirty more cases of the H1N1 virus, also known as swine flu, have been reported by the Air Force Academy, bringing the total number of confirmed cases on the campus to 97. Of those, 93 cadets remained isolated with influenza-like symptoms.
Academy spokesman said the outbreak has probably reached its peak.
"We're having less in isolation now," John Van Winkle said. "We're on the downward trend."
The academy outbreak is the largest so far in Colorado, which reported 146 confirmed cases through last week.
Those showing symptoms were placed in a separate dormitory on the base near Colorado Springs late last week.
The "doolies," or members of the incoming freshman class, are among about 1,300 recent arrivals for their first weeks of military training.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/heal...55/detail.html

[incarcerated]

http://www.mercurynews.com/california/ci_12854623



Calif reports 55 swine flu deaths, 23 in last week

The Associated Press
Posted: 07/16/2009 06:43:10 PM PDT
Updated: 07/16/2009 06:43:10 PM PDT

SAN DIEGO—The total of people who have died of swine flu in California is up to 55, an increase of 23 over the past week, state health officials said Thursday as they warned of more serious cases on the way.

"We expect to continue to see more cases of swine flu, more serious cases and, unfortunately, more deaths," said Ken August, spokesman for the California Department of Public Health.

Though health officials expected the spread of swine flu to slow in the hot summer months, as influenza viruses often do, the virus hasn't gone away, August said.

"While the majority of cases have been mild so far, public health officials remain very concerned that the virus could evolve into a more serious strain of influenza," he said.

In San Diego County, health officials said Thursday that two more people with underlying health problems died of swine flu. The latest victims there were a 57-year-old man who died on Monday and a 25-year-old man who died Wednesday.

No other details were released. The latest deaths bring the county's death toll to 9.

Swine flu symptoms are like a typical flu, which causes infected people to experience fever, cough, sore throat, body aches, headache, chills and fatigue.

[mugwump]

We're a service economy dontcha know -- manufacturing is sooo 20th century. And I think the number is "only 16%" but I guess they're rouding up...

Fight for swine flu vaccine could get ugly

LONDON – An ugly scramble is brewing over the swine flu vaccine — and when it becomes available, Britain, the United States and other nations could find that the contracts they signed with pharmaceutical companies are easily broken.

Experts warn that during a global epidemic, which the world is in now, governments may be under tremendous pressure to protect their own citizens first before allowing companies to ship doses of vaccine out of the country.

That does not bode well for many countries, including the United States, which makes only 20 percent of the flu vaccines it uses, or Britain, where all of its flu vaccines are produced abroad.

"This isn't rocket science," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. "If there is severe disease, countries will want to hang onto the vaccine for their own citizens."

[Red Flag 1]

Tic, tic, tic......

RF 1

[The Reaper]

Could it be we have more reported cases because we actually test and report, to some greater degree?

TR

http://www.time.com/time/health/arti...912087,00.html

Think H1N1 Is Bad Now? Wait Till Flu Season
By Bryan Walsh Wednesday, Jul. 22, 2009

When the World Health Organization announced on July 16 that it would stop issuing global counts of confirmed cases of the H1N1/09 virus (the new WHO-approved name differentiates the virus from older versions of H1N1), it wasn't because the disease had burned out. Far from it.

Since the new flu virus was officially declared a pandemic on June 11, the disease has spread faster in six weeks than past pandemics had spread in six months. Virtually every nation in the world has been infected, with the U.S. alone — which has 263 confirmed deaths, more than any other country — estimated to have logged more than 1 million cases. Although the good news is that most H1N1/09 illnesses have been extremely mild, the rapidity of its spread — and the fact that young people seem to be especially vulnerable — still worries global health officials. "We don't know if it will actually ever completely go away," says David Butler Jones, the public health chief of Canada, which has been unusually hard-hit. "We're still seeing new cases, so nobody should let down their guard."

(cont. at link)

[Pete]

"......Experts warn that during a global epidemic, which the world is in now, governments may be under tremendous pressure to protect their own citizens first before allowing companies to ship doses of vaccine out of the country.

That does not bode well for many countries, including the United States, which makes only 20 percent of the flu vaccines it uses, or Britain, where all of its flu vaccines are produced abroad...."

I seem to recall that a long time ago we talked about vaccine product and why it moved out of the US.

I seem to recall the D's fingerprints all over it. I seem to recall years ago that many talked about this darm same thing happening if an epidemic hit.

[incarcerated]

This is a blinding flash of the obvious, but the study dimension is worth noting in passing.
http://www.ethiopianreview.com/articles/15700


Air Traffic Patterns Predict Swine Flu Spread

Posted by Desta Bishu | July 19th, 2009 at 1:46 pm
Countries that received the most airline passengers from Mexico this spring were the most likely to see H1N1 swine flu infection, new research says.

The finding confirms that tracking global flight patterns to determine where an infectious disease may strike next could provide governments and public health officials with a means of preventing and dealing with such threats, according to an analysis by researchers in Canada.

“Infectious diseases don’t respect national boundaries, and we live in an incredibly interconnected world,” said Dr. Kamran Khan, an infectious disease physician and scientist at St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto. “Yet, infectious diseases do follow airline flight routes. If we can understand how people move around the world, we can understand how infectious diseases are likely to spread around the world.”

The findings were published online June 29 in a letter to the editor in the New England Journal of Medicine....

The database used in the study, called the Bio.Diaspora Project, includes world air-travel patterns that represent 99 percent of the world’s commercial air traffic, Khan said. The information, which was collected with the cooperation of several international airport and airline associations, includes itineraries from 2.2 billion passengers and flight schedules from 3,500 airports in about 250 nations and territories worldwide dating to January 2000.

Researchers plan to use the database, which does not connect itineraries with specific passenger names, to help determine where newly emerging infectious diseases are most likely to turn up....

[BryanK]

I for one will not be raising my hand for this one. http://www.umm.edu/news/releases/H1N1_flu_vaccine.htm. A news report (CBS) said yesterday that 8 facilities were chosen around the U.S. for preliminary trials of 2 new vaccines for H1N1. I'm just hoping that these work, and don't wind up spreading the love to the populace.