Interesting thoughts OD! I was having a very similar conversation yesterday about the trajectory since 911, what was correct, what was wrong, and what is coming. Here are the salient points and conclusions from that discussion:
1. Going into Afghanistan was the correct move, but the delay in the decision making (decision by consensus or committee) by SOCOM at Tora Bora was a huge mistake and a turning point. Incidentally, I think this ties very nicely into other threads and the politicization of our MIL leadership in general. Had the decisions been made at the point of action the entire course of the war(s) in the ME would have changed. Conventionalizing the war in A'stan was also a bad decision and serves to highlight that we have learned nothing from our mistakes in similar conflicts.
2. Going into Iraq the 2nd time was a very bad move. Bush the elder wisely stopped at taking out Saddam (advice of Colon Powell). The Iranians were fearful of Saddam and he kept them in check. Removing Saddam puts Iran at the top of the food chain with no regional counter force to keep it in check. (Sometimes the devil you know is better than the devil you don't know.)
3. We have been and are sending the wrong messages to our enemies and allies alike - this will likely lead to a serious miscalculation by our enemies. In so doing we have destabilized the entire ME and there are too many opportunities for such a miscalculation to arise. There are no good outcomes in that event!
4. The new threat that has arisen is the Russia/Iran axis. The goal is to move Iranian oil through Syria via a pipeline and ultimately to Ukraine as a central distribution point throughout Eurasia. This is good for Iran's economy and Russia's economy. It furthers Putin's goal of destabilizing the NATO alliance by controlling distribution of oil to NATO countries and thereby significantly influencing/controlling them. With Iran backed by Russia and Russia advancing it's geopolitical influence along with the U.S. on its current trajectory, the U.S. is marginalized on the World stage.
5. Should the U.S. Dollar lose reference currency status in the meantime, America is dead and nary a shot has been fired
Notice that ISIS was not discussed as a major factor. ISIS creates chaos and further destabilizes the region. This is an environment in which Putin prefers to operate.
So whereas America may not be dead yet (we probably have one more chance to turn this around), I can see America's death in my lifetime - and I'm a FOG!
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