Pandemic Flu

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

So is this "age" effect actually a "vigorous immune system" effect? Or were people born before a certain year exposed to some immunizing factor?

I have a hard time believing its not just because x percent of the Indonesian etc population is under 40.

One very likely possibility is that old people (and if you're over 40 in many of these 3rd world countries, you're old) drop dead from respiratory disease every day. Over 100,000 a year die from resp. disease in Indo alone. Young people gasping unto death is worrying and unusual, and might warrant testing. Old Uncle Pangi gasping his last breath doesn't raise any suspicion -- it's almost expected. This is a very difficult virus to detect even when the clinical presentation raises all sorts of suspicions. What you don't look for you can't find.

[mugwump]

This is going to run nation wide as a priority public service announcement.

http://video.pandemicflu.gov/?&fr_st...&rf=FRONT_PAGE

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

I would have thought the same during their Mad Cow/K-J debacle, and they botched that too, as I recall.

TR

Meat from bird-flu farm ‘was sent abroad’

An investigation was under way last night after claims that poultry meat was exported from the Suffolk farm at the centre of the bird flu outbreak after the disease was identified.

Despite the imposition of quarantine rules, six trucks of poultry products from the farm owned by Bernard Matthews were said to have arrived in Hungary on Thursday.

Six lorryloads of turkey meat sent to Hungary last week from the Bernard Matthews plant at the centre of the avian flu outbreak were raw and may have returned the H5N1 virus to Central Europe.

The revelation immediately sparked a political and diplomatic row between London and Budapest. Miklos Suth, the Hungarian chief vet, said that he was outraged by the consignment of raw meat from an infected zone.

Poultry industry chiefs and farmers were incensed by the move and believed that it would lead to a collapse of consumer confidence in all turkey and chicken, especially as the route of the infection from Hungary to Suffolk has still not been established.

[mugwump]

CIDRAP has posted a summary explanation of the population dynamics studies, i.e. selective attack in those under 40. It's certainly easier to read than the original reports.

WHO cites more evidence of H5N1's bias toward young

[Roycroft201]

Infected birds in Kuwait:

http://www.kuwaittimes.net/

[InTheBlack]

I can't find anything on the FDA site about this.

A NY Times News Service newswire report says the FDA has "endorsed" an "experimental" Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine as a stopgap.

It requires 2 doses at 12x the typical antigen level and was 45% effective out of the 91 people it was tested upon.

The Fed gov wants enough to protect 20 million health care workers.

It won't be sold to the public & is based on a 3 year old Vietnam strain.

[jasonglh]

While I would welcome some measure of protection I hope they can improve the performance before they expect me to go volunteering my arm.

[InTheBlack]

What interests me most is that if the stuff costs, say, $20 a dose then we are talking about close to a billion dollars. That's real money. I wonder what the contract will pay.

Bird Flu Buster: New Vaccine Protects against Multiple Viral Strains

M

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

What interests me most is that if the stuff costs, say, $20 a dose then we are talking about close to a billion dollars. That's real money. I wonder what the contract will pay.

Prices I've heard bandied about run around $8 per dose, the usual for flu vaccine.

One billion is not big bucks to a pharma. A drug I worked on was sold off because it only made $450M/year, not worth the effort.

The pot o' gold is with worldwide orders, say a billion doses.

[mugwump]

http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/17Mar2007_news18.php

The newspaper [Asian Wall Street Journal] said that during the executive board meeting of the WHO in January, Dr Suwit, who is also special adviser to the public health minister, declared that if an influenza pandemic hit, he would advise Bangkok to hold Western tourists hostage until those countries gave Thailand the necessary vaccines.


The US government has lodged a formal protest letter and requested an apology. Dr Suwit's comments ''appear to contravene the spirit and provisions of the revised International Health Regulations'', US Health and Human Services Secretary Michael Leavitt wrote in the letter dated March 7, referring to the WHO's rules on how countries cooperate to curb the international spread of diseases. ''Voicing support for these counter-productive policies at a multilateral, intergovernmental meeting ... can impair global influenza preparedness efforts,'' the Journal quoted Mr Leavitt as saying.

[mugwump]

I'm losing steam on this issue, not because the risk has decreased but because I'm as ready as I can be without moving house and I'm sick of thinking about it. My development work has moved away from H5N1 vaccines (although I'm on the periphery of some interesting cytokine work) and my clients are pumping away in the political realm now more than the scientific one. Wonder why the GlaxoSmithKline vaccine (the one that's much, much better than the one we bought from Sanofi-Pasteur, costs less and uses a lower dose) is still offshore? Liability and lack of indemnification. Our tort process will be the end of us yet. They won't risk a 20 billion liability for a billion dollar payout. Can't blame 'em.

As far as the flu goes, the MSM is pretty on top of things. Egypt's the new big mess, Indo's still the old big mess, Laos, Thailand, Burma (won't use that other name), VN and China are all sporting new human cases. Sub-equatorial Africa is quiet, but is a black hole.

Subjectively, lots of chatter in the last 3 days, which is what prompted this tardy update. Means nothing, but my NGO/WHO/expert sources are all twitchy. The discussion lately is about when "it" happens (they really say "it"--it's like a cancer treatment center, where you'll never hear the 'C' word), will we see a serious breakout, high death rate in a limited geographic area (like Java, say), and then a fadeout without full global pandemic? This is the sucker-punch scenario, and what happened in France in 1917, the year before "it" went global the last time.

Well, on that happy note I'll close. Adios, y'all. Stay safe.

[InTheBlack]

>>>
he would advise Bangkok to hold Western tourists hostage until those countries gave Thailand the necessary vaccines.
>>>

Given the kind of tourism they are famous for, I don't see why we would want them back...

So Mug, are you still going to post a Warning Order if the situation warrants?

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

So Mug, are you still going to post a Warning Order if the situation warrants?

Yeah, of course, as soon as any qualitative change occurs. But for various reasons when I travel I sometimes can't post, so don't count on me.

I suspect Wall Street will let everyone know most rikki tik.

I've been quiet on this lately because while there is a slow, steady drumbeat from SE Asia and Egypt, it's more of the same from where I sit. I don't like the fact that there are more dice being thrown in more places, but they still keep coming up snake eyes at about the same rate as before. Keep fingers crossed.

Huh, "rikki tik" is in my spell-check.

[Sacamuelas]

MW-

Please post whenever you discover something that elevates itself beyond the normal daily chatter in your circle. I am sure I am not the only one on this site that comes HERE to gain insight into the potential of this threat as well as to gain information on the new findings,etc. After reading your prior posts, I have gained trust in your insight on the issue over my own interpreting of the normal media reports.

Whenever you get time to post, that works for me as I am sure it takes a lot of time. Just stay with us on this issue if/when you can.
-Saca