UK fears Falkland Island invasion by Russia-backed Argentina

[Airbornelawyer]

That was my point.

Putin's Russia is sticking its nose in Latin America mainly to tweak the United States, though with a certain geopolitical objective. I doubt Putin really expects anything to come of Argentina's ambitions. But just as we have the Monroe Doctrine, Russia wants the rest of the world to treat Russia's so-called "near abroad" as Russia's turf. Not that the Monroe Doctrine really means much these days, and not that we are blessed with a president least likely to respect that doctrine, but it does allow Russia to accuse us of hypocrisy if we oppose Russian moves in Latin America while involving ourselves in affairs in Ukraine, Georgia and the like. And of all the countries in Latin America where Russia might meddle, Argentina is a "two-fer", since it also tweaks the UK over British support to Ukraine.

Realistically, though, Russia is suffering under the twin threats of the drop in oil prices and sanctions over Ukraine which have had some effect on the oligarchs who support Putin. Especially as a result of the drop in oil revenues, the Russian Armed Forces are having to re-evaluate their own ambitious modernization plans. Russia would be hard-pressed to modernize another country's armed forces unless that country had hard currency to pay, like Chavez's Venezuela at the height of the oil-price boom. Countries like Syria and Iran might also have hard-currency issues, but they also represent more serious geopolitical interests for Russia than Argentina does. India and China remain Russia's biggest customers, although India is also one of the US's biggest customers as well.

Argentina has done almost nothing to modernize its armed forces, especially its air force, since the 1980s, and in many areas is worse off. Manning levels, training and maintenance have all suffered as the military lost its privileged position since 1983. And, indeed, outside of its Exocet-carrying Super Étendard's and certain army, marine and police special operations forces, the Argentine military wasn't particularly potent by Western standards even in 1982. After the initial conquest of the Falklands, most of the SOF were withdrawn and replaced by conscript infantry, who proved rather unmotivated and ineffective against the British Army. Without conscription anymore to maintain even sufficient manning levels, and without the budgets to train and equip professional forces, the Argentine armed forces are far less of a threat now than they perhaps ever were.

[TiroFijo]

Exactly...

I just want to add that in 1982 Argentina had some of her best infantry forces in the border with Chile, since they almost went to war in 1978 over the Beagle cannel. Historically all the patagonic region had been disputed among both countries since their independence, and there is always a sour taste in Chile about the 1902 limits that almost led to a war.

Not surprisingly, the chileans helped the UK during the Falklands war, and Argentina was expecting action on its shouthern borders.

Argentina is currently led by a inept president with real mental issues, and does not have money to buy anything, much less build up their armed forces from the sorry state they are now. As much as Russia would like to poke the US/NATO in the eye doing whatever they can in the region, they have many other far more pressing issues at hand.

The real player in the region, in the long term, is China. They are buying whatever they can and extending economic influence.

[logisticsclerk]

If I may ask a polite question here: given the stationing of modern aircraft on the Falklands (I believe a number of Typhoons and helicopters are permanently stationed there) and the fact that the British Army and Royal Marines are infinitely more battle hardened than those of 1982, wouldn't an invasion be a much harder proposition than it was back then?

[TiroFijo]

I`m sure the UK MOD knows very well the current capabilities of Argentina's armed forces, it is very easy to see they are in a very sorry state today and not remotely capable of attempting an invasion.

This is all smoke... who knows why?

[sinjefe]

Originally Posted by TiroFijo

This is all smoke... who knows why?

Because de Kirchner is a piece of shit socialist who has wrecked her economy (and military) with her redistributionist policies. Saber rattling over the Falklands distracts the sheeple from their real problems (her).

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by sinjefe

Because de Kirchner is a piece of shit socialist who has wrecked her economy (and military) with her redistributionist policies. Saber rattling over the Falklands distracts the sheeple from their real problems (her).

That sounds unfortunately familiar.

[TiroFijo]

Originally Posted by sinjefe

Because de Kirchner is a piece of shit socialist who has wrecked her economy (and military) with her redistributionist policies. Saber rattling over the Falklands distracts the sheeple from their real problems (her).

That is true,

But the smoke I was referring to are the claimed "worries" of UK over an "increased risk of invasion" to the islands, something that is really far fetched for anybody with a modicum of knowledge of the situation (that I'm sure the UK has) and a sane head.