Wuhan Coronavirus

[InTheBlack]

That's amusing. We put the cruise ship people into the super-duper quarantine facility with expertly trained staff... and some local yokel on vacation comes back with it.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

That's amusing. We put the cruise ship people into the super-duper quarantine facility with expertly trained staff... and some local yokel on vacation comes back with it.

Heh, yeah. If I was sitting pretty at the station in Antarctica my message to HQ would be that "every swingin' dude/dudette on the relief shift better be in quarantine for 24 days, and you're gonna deep-clean that frickin' bird. Otherwise, we're good, just need a resupply while y'all sort this shit out."

[InTheBlack]

calculating doubling time -- My brain hurts... used to be able to do this with logarithm formula, but stumped on the phrasing; growth at "the rate of 10 folds every 19 days."

How do you turn that into a % growth rate to plug into a D.T. formula?

EDIT: it has a 10x time of 19. What is the 2x time?

EDIT: by brute force, x^y is 1.129^19 days = 10.03 fold increase
So "rate" is 12.9% per day

using that rate is a doubling time of 5.71 days
https://miniwebtool.com/doubling-time-calculator/?r=19

***
BETTER:

2 = e^rt

ln(2) = ln (e^rt)

ln(2) = rt

( ln(2) / t ) = r

except use ln(10) for 10x instead of 2x.
rate is 12.1%
DT is 6.07 days

The moral of this is that really small changes in exponent values make big changes in the final result, so its probably between 5.5 and 6.5 days...

[Surf n Turf]

Originally Posted by T-Rock

You can follow updates that "Trevor Bedford" posts in the link below. He's from Seattle Washington and a no knee jerk reactionary. He's with these folks:
https://bedford.io/team/


And they have done some awesome research genetically mapping SARSCov-2, and he usually posts their teams findings on his Twitter page, although I don't twit, nor have a twit page. He's a scientist, and "hopefully" unbiased:
https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb . Read his page regularly.

Thanks, for the link

I think I understand their process.

Not sure I could compete in today’s world with these (wonder) kids with obvious IQ's north of 145

SnT

[Badger52]

That bottled water, Ramen noodles, and Clorox are walkin' out of the Walmarts in the corn belt shortly. Saw a bit of that up here when that one subject was in Madison, (by appearances) folks who don't think about such things till it's in their face on the affiliate's 6pm news while they shovel in their take-out from the noodle palace. Then she finished her quarantine, good to go, walked, and everything calmed down in the area.

I bet cbtengr will have intel on shelf stockages.

[Pete]

I think the "Keep it Out" and "Keep it Contained" plans are pretty much out the window now.

All the individual cases have been out walking around with it before it was found out they had it - and now the race is on to track down who they had come in contact with. Missed will be the customers at Dollar Tree - might get the workers if the person remembered they went there.

The US population is not the kind of folks to stay home if told to do so.

So it will spread. Now the question is how bad will it be.

I'm going with similar to a very bad seasonal flu.

Going to be funny when this is all over watching folks try and return 40 cases of Ramen Noodles.

[mugwump]

Pete, if you’re ready for mid-term isolation, it doesn’t make any real difference. You’ll wait and see if this turns out to be simply a bad flu year. But that possibility is disappearing fast, IMO.

The best case scenario is Korea's 0.7% fatality rate, the lowest in the world. CFR of 0.7 is seven times worse that a bad seasonal flu year. Note that their cigarette use runs about 20% of the population and obesity is about 5%. Ours is 17% smokers and 40% obese. They already have hundreds who need hospitalization with no beds available.

WHO's official CFR is 3.6%, 36 times that of flu, and is what Iran and Italy are currently seeing. I’d expect that to go down in Italy as more asymptomatic cases are identified but Iran looks to hold steady at 3.6. They are getting absolutely hammered.

CFR varies by locale and population. There have been two variants, or clades, of COVID19 identified and there are emerging worries that the more dangerous type, the same one that circulated initially in Wuhan, is attacking Iran.

The factor that is overlooked in these discussions is the exponential doubling of cases. This is the source of those “showering without rubber ducky decals is more dangerous that COVID19” posts you might have seen.

It’s true. Right now, at the very early stages of this pandemic in the US, we are seeing few hospitalizations and deaths. But note that Italy was in the same place just one week ago and today they have the most deaths outside of China and they're planning a complete one-month lockdown of 1/4 of their population with no travel allowed into or out of northern Italy.

See the link below for a clear discussion of the issue of exponential case growth and the implications for our health system and the availability of masks/gowns/IV/etc. (Pro tip: they won’t last one day). The author is very cautious to use the most optimistic of all projections and to bracket every assumption with +/- adjustments.

If you can find a hole in her logic let me know. I can’t. Click on the black bar to see the entire thread.

https://twitter.com/threadreaderapp/...321501185?s=21

[EricV]

Here's a interesting video on the tube that must not be mentioned regarding Vit D...

https://www.xxxxxxx.com/watch?v=gmqgGwT6bw0

I've had positive results with a number of issues with this doing soft gel caps of D3. Doing 2000 IU of it could improve your immune system. Some people take 5000 IU or more

Ideally you should get your blood tested to fine tune the dose. here's an article on what happens if it's too much.

https://www.lifeextension.com/Magazi...tamin-D-Intake

We get Vitamin D by sunlight as well as diet. Taking it is good for older people who's skin doesn't process sunlight as well any more.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by mugwump

See the link below....

Thanks for that.

[mugwump]

Plagues were feared in antiquity for the war, famine, and political unrest they brought as much as the direct deaths they produced.

OPEC collapsed as a functioning cartel on Friday as the Russians refused to cut production in an attempt to prop oil prices gutted by the pandemic consumption slump in China. Basically, Russia declared economic war on Saudi Arabia and US frackers.

Today the House of Saud fired back and announced deep discounts on oil—$8/bbl to the US and $10/bbl to the EU—in their own assault on the Russians and US frackers.

It’s a move based on desperation.

Expect Houthi rebels to gain access to even more sophisticated drones in the coming weeks. Maybe made by Raytheon, maybe made by ZALA Aero, maybe by an Iranian proxy. One distribution hub in flames and problem solved for the US.

The US junk bond market and banks, gutted by a collapsing bond rates, cannot bail out the US oil patch like they did in 2015, especially if we're economically fighting both Russia and Arabia.

Interesting times.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Badger52

Thanks for that.

Yep. UW Health has 147 ICU beds across their whole system, in 12 hospitals/clinics big and small. Most beds are in Madison. Yesterday they were all filled. Still the flu, along with their usual strokes, heart attacks, etc. Makes you go hmmm.

I saw a panicky infectious disease guy from U of Minn Health on the CNBC business channel last week and he said they had 5-10 days of PPE and expected zero chance of resupply.

Sometimes you have to just cover up and take a beating.

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by mugwump

The best case scenario is Korea's 0.7% fatality rate, the lowest in the world. CFR of 0.7 is seven times worse that a bad seasonal flu year.

Multiplying fatality factor by seasonal flu deaths seems the best way to me.

Trying to use doubling times then seriousness on a spreadsheet, I can't make it match the China progression of numbers.

How does doubling time change when cases are very low? The few infected in a small zone will be exposing the same set of people multiple times, so the R0 would be skewed.

Then with very large numbers you get herd immunity starting and again exposing the same people multiple times.

Wonder if the way doubling time changes is a Logistic Curve sort of equation?

[InTheBlack]

Going back to seasonal flu numbers, this year says 40M per season get sick, that's 40/330 = 12%. If COVID-19 affects 36% that's three times 50k deaths = 150,000 deaths at seasonal death rates.

Seven times that death rate is a million.

Even half a million is ten times the seasonal death numbers.

[InTheBlack]

I recall China's capacity as 200M per... day?
No info on 3Ms capacity to produce domestically.
Who's responsible for our current stock being so much less than what could have been foreseen as needed?

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/926295

snip
"Since we have this regional manufacturing model, many of our items are coming regionally. And we're working with our supply partners very closely to monitor the situation," McCullough told Reuters.

The company is not currently under contract to produce the masks and is preparing to respond to the government's request, 3M spokeswoman Jennifer Ehrlich said.

Demand for masks like the ones produced by 3M has outpaced supply as the coronavirus outbreak, which originated in China, has spread. The outbreak has riled markets and disrupted global supply chains, largely in export-dependent China.

"The demand is outstripping capacity right now, and we're working 24/7 to ramp up and be able to meet as much of that demand as we can," CEO Michael Roman told investors at an industry conference last month.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services intends to buy 500 million N95 respirators over the next 18 months for the Strategic National Stockpile (SNS), the nation's supply of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies.

[Pete]

One thing is for sure - in about three weeks everybody who goes to a Doc's office with a case of the sniffles will demand to be tested.

They had better be cranking up production of those test kits.

Near as I can gather depending on the source one test kit has something like 500 to 600 individual test units in it. The news is doing a poor job on educating the public on that. The hear one test kit and think one test.