Oil Prices and Global Exports

[Mills]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

From what I have read, energy independence unto itself isn't really attainable. Even if 100% of the U.S.'s oil came from North America, oil is still priced globally, so a supply shock from say Saudi Arabia would still raise prices here in the U.S. And it would affect other economies that the U.S. is linked to. As it is, I think only about 25% of America's oil actually comes from the Middle East (and 10% when excluding Saudi Arabia). Most of it is from Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. itself. I think energy security is something definitely attainable though.

Who said I was talking about oil..........

I think oil will always be needed, however I am talking about an overall reliance in regards to our day to day. People will always have a "want" for it, however I would gladly drive a vehicle that runs on an alternative fuel most of the time if it were cost efficient.

But that doesn't mean that i will give up my 4 wheeler, motorcycle, generator, or lawn equipment.

All in all, that may account for 5% of my oil consumption.

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

LINK - I have been reading some other articles on this, the peak oil people are still standing by their argument. While I think their argument has some merit, the problem is they keep saying, "In the next few years, it will happen," then the next few years comes, and nothing happens. They were saying we'd hit peak oil in the mid-1990s, then in the late 1990s, then in the early 2000s, then in the mid-2000s, then in the late 2000s, then surely by 2012, now in the next few years according to some. I think they do not understand the subject as well as they think they do.

What will be really cool is if we see large booms in oil production from the United States, Canada, and Israel (which may be on the verge of becoming a major energy nation), and thus a decline in the geopolitical influence of the oil-producing countries hostile to the West.

The peak-oilers don't understand the cause of peak production.
It is an issue of will, not technology or geology.

So long as oil is the best choice available, people will do what takes to produce more.
If oil becomes too expensive, it will no longer be the best choice, and people will put their efforts elsewhere.

It's about profit.
Both for the producers and consumers.

Peak oil will happen...
once a better, cheaper alternative is found.

[GratefulCitizen]

Natural gas making inroads.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...0BYDDN20130306

The price differential between oil and natural gas is unsustainable.
Something has to give.

[tatonka]

Grateful Citizen: The price differential between oil and natural gas is unsustainable.
Something has to give.

I agree. The energy spread versus price spread is to great to justify same old same old. I realize there is a built in inertia in business and that initial changeover of fixed assets is high, but if you were able to reduce your fuel costs by 1/4 to a 1/3, especially when your competitors are still tooled up for gasoline versus NG, you would have a huge advantage at least in the short term and a leg up in the mid as you've worked the bugs out of the logistics.

Another website which looks at the trends in crude, natural gas, and natural gas liquids: http://rbnenergy.com/methane-train-runnin-big-savings-from-lng-locomotives

Also, don't count out oils, or at least refined diesel yet. Sasol is building a gas to liquids plant in South Louisiana. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/04/bu...ant-in-us.html

[GratefulCitizen]

Irreversible decline of peak oil in the US.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=mcrfpus1&f=a

Cumulative 2013 will be even higher.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

Where's Nmap?

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

Irreversible decline of peak oil in the US.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=mcrfpus1&f=a

Cumulative 2013 will be even higher.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=WCRFPUS2&f=W

Where's Nmap?

Even with a Dim POTUS, no drilling on public lands, and envirowhackos running the EPA.

Wow!

TR

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Even with a Dim POTUS, no drilling on public lands, and envirowhackos running the EPA.

Wow!

TR

The government doesn't have as much power over this as they think they do.
(Much like the rest of the economy)

The war on coal has affected production, but also increased exports:
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/...df/sec7_13.pdf
http://www.eia.gov/coal/production/q...df/t7p01p1.pdf

Natural gas is doing well and having secondary effects:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9010us2A.htm
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2013/09/20...nto-overdrive/

And about that dependency on foreign oil:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/Lea...s=wttntus2&f=4


There's still a big enough economy and bright enough future for anyone willing to diligently pursue happiness.

[Dusty]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Even with a Dim POTUS, no drilling on public lands, and envirowhackos running the EPA.

Wow!

TR

Running the EPA with armed operators:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2013...med-divisions/

[GratefulCitizen]

About that oil dependency problem...
http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=13251

Demand is rising elsewhere in the world.
The US will soon be a net exporter of energy.

[GratefulCitizen]

Oil around $50/barrel...
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...rrel/21484911/

Where's Nmap?

[Flagg]

Often times in energy investment it's the 2nd owner of the energy producing asset/property that makes the BIG money.

There's going to be some operators losing heaps per BOE at these prices and as it drifts lower for a bit.

Companies sitting on a lot of cash and picking indebted operators apart like vultures are going to make an absolute KILLING.

Some big fortunes over the next 6-12 years are going to be made purchasing distressed energy producing assets over the next 6-12 months.

[GratefulCitizen]

My understanding is that oil will have to stay under $42/barrel for two years to kill the shale industry.
Even then...

This will hurt production methods which require huge investments (like offshore and arctic) more than it will hurt shale.
Lower oil prices also give room for the Fed to monetize more of the debt.

The massive increase in hydrocarbon production and the multiplicative effect of energy/technology demonstrate the reality of how economies actually function:
Money isn't real, goods and services are real.

How's this gonna work out for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela?

[MR2]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

How's this gonna work out for Russia, Iran, and Venezuela?

Which was the only reason that oil dropped at all, let alone so quickly.

So where is the money coming from to subsidize House Saud in order to maintain the pump rates and flooding of the market?

What new gas tax?

[GratefulCitizen]

Real capital is not found in chemical concentrations underground, it is found in the human mind and will.
The mind and will of the American entrepreneur is a force to be reckoned with...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/o...y-buckles.html

The chart referencing oils prices necessary to balance budgets is interesting.

[GratefulCitizen]

Peak demand, not peak supply.
Make something expensive enough, people will develop substitutes, develop ways of producing that something more effeciently, and develop ways of using it more effeciently.

Markets work.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/marke...RRqp?li=AA4Zjn