The Reverse Domino Theory

[Jimbo]

Dubai is another spot where we are making progress.

[Guy]

Roger that Jimbo. So is Kuwait and Jordan. Since the King of Jordan married an American she has had some influence over the direction Jordan is heading.

One thing I have noticed in these ME countries, is the stark difference between the classes. The rich keep it in the family. The poor are indoctrinated into a religion that keeps them poor and the middle class are one to two steps ahead of the poor, yet a hundred steps behind the rich.

Even though this article has nothing to do with the ME...this a classic example of what I have noticed that takes place in the ME.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...NGP65MA0P1.DTL

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by Guy
Roger that Jimbo. So is Kuwait and Jordan. Since the King of Jordan married an American she has had some influence over the direction Jordan is heading.

Queen Rania is a Jordanian of Palestinian origin. It was King Abdullah's father, the late King Hussein, whose wife was American. Queen Noor, née Lisa Halaby, is the daughter of the late Najeeb Halaby, who was a Navy test pilot, CEO of Pan Am and FAA Administrator under JFK and LBJ.

Hussein's generally pro-Western orientation was probably as much due to his UK connections and the balancing act the Arab monarchies have always had to play in the face of Arab socialists and Islamists, as it was to his wife's US connections. Also, a majority of Jordan's population is Palestinian, so keeping control over them has been the monarchy's main goal.

Also, the Gulf states' steps toward democracy are tentative at best. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE are all wealthy oil states with small populations. Most of the shit-work is done by South Asians and Filipinos, who enjoy no citizenship rights. As long as the actual Arab citizens are wealthy and content, and don't have to work that hard for a living, the emirs see no great problem in granting them certain additional rights.

In Saudi Arabia, though, we are seeing the consequences if that compromise breaks down. The Saudi population explosion of the last 20-30 years has resulted in a generation of young Saudis who grew up expecting the easy life their parents enjoyed, but now find themselves with few opportunities and little inclination to get their hands dirty doing jobs fit only for Filipinos, Bangladeshis and Yemenis. It is among these alienated young people that the Islamists have their best recruiting success (hence the 15 of 19 9-11 hijackers of Saudi origin).

On a tangent, that is one reason why I am tired of the "root cause" types who blame terrorism on poverty and ignorance/lack of education among the Arab masses. The core of al-Qa'ida terrorists are not poor or uneducated. They have more in common with the Columbine shooters and the Baader-Meinhof and SLA types and other alientated rich kids than they do with the people on the so-called "Arab street".

In that sense and several others, Iraq is a much better place to start and to look for the seeds of Arab democracy than the Gulf. Iraq has a functioning middle class and most Iraqis generally don't find certain jobs - from military service to pumping gas - to be "beneath" them. Iraqis also have a great deal of national pride - they see themselves as having been at the forefront of defending and advancing Arab civilization from the early Baghdad caliphates to the Iran-Iraq War - which may help overcome some of the tribal and sectarian problems.

The non-Arab Kurds are outside of this, however. This remains potentially the biggest regional problem. In a sense, Kurdish tribalism helps regional stability. Iraqi Kurds have been more interested in building their local communities than in caring what happens to Iranian, Turkish and Syrian Kurds. The Iraqi Kurds routinely cooperated with the Turks against the PKK, seeing that group as Marxist terrorists with more in common with the Ba'ath than with their fellow Kurds. But in the long run, the Kurdish problem remains. And, as was seen by recent developments in Syria, the Iraqi Kurds are beginning to care more about their ethnic brothers. How Turkey deals with this, and how we deal with Turkey over this, is one of the most important issues in seeing if this Iraq experiment succeeds and the dominoes fall elsewhere.

But in the larger sense, the future of democracy and Islam doesn't lie in the Arab world. Just as the influence of Germanic peoples changed Christianity in myriad ways, any future of Islam as compatible with democracy will likely result from the efforts of non-Arab Muslims bringing a different approach. The majority of Muslims, after all, are not Arabs. The demographic center of gravity of the Muslim world is in South and Southeast Asia, not the Middle East. In the long run, whether Islam finds some compatibility with democracy depends more on how the relationship between religion and politics is defined in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Malaysia and Indonesia than in Iraq, Jordan or Saudi Arabia. Add a few other non-Arab Muslim states on the Middle Eastern periphery - Turkey, Iran, Albania, Nigeria - as well. The Saudi Wahhabis and Iranian mullahs certainly are aware of this, and have spent lots of time and money trying to radicalize the peoples of these countries to their approaches to the religion/state question. Westerners and moderate Muslims have been lax in responding to this (and by lumping all Muslim peoples in with the radical Islamists in places like Chechnya, Bosnia, Kosovo and Afghanistan, Westerners have to some extent made it a self-fulfilling prophecy; most Bosnian Muslims saw themselves as Europeans first, until too many Europeans made it clear that they didn't see it that way).

Things are in some cases better than they are portrayed in the Western media, but in other cases they are worse (the willful blindness to the threat of Islamist radicals among Muslim populations in the West and the periphery regions is the most important). In the long-run, I think the prospects are good, but some backsliding is likely (the advance of democracy in Latin America, one of the greatest legacies of the Reagan years, has suffered backsliding in the past couple years in several places, most dangerously Venezuela).

[Roguish Lawyer]

Dave, why aren't you teaching somewhere? Seriously.

[NousDefionsDoc]

Good post AL

[Guy]

Queen Rania is a Jordanian of Palestinian origin. It was King Abdullah's father, the late King Hussein, whose wife was American. Queen Noor, née Lisa Halaby, is the daughter of the late Najeeb Halaby, who was a Navy test pilot, CEO of Pan Am and FAA Administrator under JFK and LBJ

.
You are correct. I had the two kings mixed up.

Hussein's generally pro-Western orientation was probably as much due to his UK connections and the balancing act the Arab monarchies have always had to play in the face of Arab socialists and Islamists, as it was to his wife's US connections.

This has been a major hurdle on trying to install a “Coalition Government� within Iraq.

Also, a majority of Jordan's population is Palestinian, so keeping control over them has been the monarchy's main goal.

I’ve been in discussions with Jordanians about the amount of land they acquired from the Palestinians after the “Six Day war�! How better to maintain control over the Palestinians than focus there “cause� on Israel?

Also, the Gulf states' steps toward democracy are tentative at best. Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE are all wealthy oil states with small populations.Most of the shit-work is done by South Asians and Filipinos, who enjoy no citizenship rights. As long as the actual Arab citizens are wealthy and content, and don't have to work that hard for a living, the emirs see no great problem in granting them certain additional rights.

The small population as you stated above…is true. In comparison to Iraq and it’s future …is false!
In response to what have above in bold. Hell…I could make that same argument here within the USA. As long as the actual American citizens are wealthy and content, and don't have to work that hard for a living, the American people see no great problem in granting “certain immigrants� certain additional rights

[The Reaper]

Great information, presented effectively, AL.

Glad to have you posting your perspective here.

TR

[Guy]

In Saudi Arabia, though, we are seeing the consequences if that compromise breaks down. The Saudi population explosion of the last 20-30 years has resulted in a generation of young Saudis who grew up expecting the easy life their parents enjoyed, but now find themselves with few opportunities and little inclination to get their hands dirty doing jobs fit only for Filipinos, Bangladeshis and Yemenis. It is among these alienated young people that the Islamists have their best recruiting success (hence the 15 of 19 9-11 hijackers of Saudi origin).

I agree! This is the norm from any society…my parents did well, why shouldn’t I have the privilege or opportunity?

1.On a tangent, that is one reason why I am tired of the "root cause" types who blame terrorism on poverty and ignorance/lack of education among the Arab masses. The core of al-Qa'ida terrorists are not poor or uneducated. 2.They have more in common with the Columbine shooters and the Baader-Meinhof and SLA types and other alientated rich kids than they do with the people on the so-called "Arab street".

1. Name one terrorist attack besides 9/11 that has been carried out by the EDUCATED? Those who were educated because “a dumb SOB can’t comprehend the complexity of flying an aircraft� carried out 9/11! Any attack that’s carried out by terrorist, that is complex in nature, it’s that the core element will be EDUCATED!
2. That statement is utter BS! The Columbine shooters felt like “alienated rich kids�. Who in the hell were they “indoctrinated� or educated by? Nintendo…XBOX…Rap music…etc? The comparison is unfair and bias. The religious structure played no part in the Columbine tragedy.

Oh I have more to say…

[Guy]

Do you see OBL...Arafat or any of these other "so called leaders" who have been linked to terrorism, running around with bombs strapped to there a$$?

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by Guy
1. Name one terrorist attack besides 9/11 that has been carried out by the EDUCATED? Those who were educated because “a dumb SOB can’t comprehend the complexity of flying an aircraft� carried out 9/11! Any attack that’s carried out by terrorist, that is complex in nature, it’s that the core element will be EDUCATED!
2. That statement is utter BS! The Columbine shooters felt like “alienated rich kids�. Who in the hell were they “indoctrinated� or educated by? Nintendo…XBOX…Rap music…etc? The comparison is unfair and bias. The religious structure played no part in the Columbine tragedy.

Oh I have more to say…

I am not certain what is "utter BS". Too many people made excuses for the likes of Taliban Johnny, Patty Hearst and others, saying they were mixed up kids who fell in with the wrong crowd and were brainwashed. That frankly doesn't seem atypical for many terrorist recruits. If the Columbine kids had, like Lindh, found an ideology - religious, Marxist, anarchist, etc. - to latch onto, they probably would have. For Lindh, it was Islamism. For Hearst, it was whatever the SLA stood for. Baader-Meinhof were Marxists, but they had a streak of anarchist in them as well.

There is no strong correlation between terrorism and any other indicator except lack of political liberty, one other reason that Saudi Arabia comes high on the list of terrorist home addresses. Add into the mix the indoctrination by Wahhabi clerics and their terrorist leader acolytes, and you have the recipe for terrorist recruitment.

But numerous studies have found a correlation between education levels and terrorism. A study by researchers Dr. Shaul Kimhi and Col. Shmuel Even of the Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies indicated that Palestinian suicide bombers had much higher education levels than Palestinians in general. A study by a Princeton graduate student, Claude Berrebi, also indicated higher education levels and lower poverty rates among Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas suicide bombers than among Palestinians in general. A study of Hezbollah fighters also showed higher education levels and lower poverty rates than among the Lebanese population base from which they were recruited. Members of the Gush Emunim Underground, a Jewish fundamentalist terrorist cell active in the 1980s, also followed this pattern (the group was militant splinter group of Gush Emunim, a Jewish fundamentalist group not previously associated with political violence).

[Guy]

AL:

Read that study again!

...the Palestinian education system that preaches hatred of Israel. This comprehensive social environment may be referred to as the "culture of suicide terrorists" that has been created within Palestinian society.

If this is what you call "A HIGHER EDUCATION"! Then I must be crazy!

[Airbornelawyer]

Originally posted by Guy
AL:

Read that study again!

If this is what you call "A HIGHER EDUCATION"! Then I must be crazy!

It's hardly limited to Middle Eastern universities. Banner hanging in the Douglas Campus Student Center, Rutgers(The State University of New Jersey):

[Airbornelawyer]

The rallying cry of Palestinian militants, it's a fairly straightforward statement of just how much "land" the Israelis are expected to five up for "peace".

[Airbornelawyer]

Communist regime defenders always touted free education and universal literacy in the workers' paradises.

Remember Sandinista math? Two grenades plus two grenades plus two grenades equals six grenades.

And Sandinista spelling. Use of the letter Q: "Sandino fought the yanquis. The yanquis will always be defeated in our fatherland.''

Originally posted by Guy


1. Name one terrorist attack besides 9/11 that has been carried out by the EDUCATED?

Bali.