Israel to strike Iran

[The Reaper]

Pretty bold when you tell the bear in the cave that you are coming in to kick his ass.

Unless there is another reason for it....

TR

[Trip_Wire (RIP)]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Pretty bold when you tell the bear in the cave that you are coming in to kick his ass.

Unless there is another reason for it....

TR

Yeah TR I agree on both counts! I think there are many reasons for such announcements and leaks.

[Sacamuelas]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=germany

[Bravo1-3]

Nuke the site from orbit... it's the only way to be sure.

[QRQ 30]

I hate to be a wet blanket but I believe Israel has better OPSEC than this!!

The pre-emptive strike has always been in their arsenal but surprise is of the essence.

[3SoldierDad]

Buckle your seat belts...


Three Soldier Dad....Chuck

[MeC86]

Short article written by former CIA case officer Robert Baer. Might explain why Iran has not been hit yet. Israel might be facing some reluctancy from the US. Either way it goes down, I dont think diplomacy will work in the long run. Israel will act in its best intrests in the end. Hopefully, we are on board with them when it happens.

http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...813706,00.html

[MeC86]

"This new policy of tact, diplomacy, and courtesy has made liars of us all."

[3SoldierDad]

Originally Posted by MeC86

Short article written by former CIA case officer Robert Baer. Might explain why Iran has not been hit yet. Israel might be facing some reluctancy from the US. Either way it goes down, I dont think diplomacy will work in the long run. Israel will act in its best intrests in the end. Hopefully, we are on board with them when it happens.

http://www.time.com/time/world/artic...813706,00.html

Excellent article - Great insight. Robert Baer has the experience and the understanding to speak with authority. I recommend his book - "See No Evil."

Here are two possible scenarios to the worse international disaster in modern times. I would welcome critiques on these two scenarios.

Scenario One

• Neither the West nor Israel can launch a strike against Iran without creating an overwhelmingly severe global economic event (see Baer's article) - The U.S. can't because it can't risk its economic life. Israel can't because it needs the U.S. to pull it off. The U.S. not only won't help Israel, but will oppose Israel because a global depression results no matter who attacks - the biggest loser in a possible depression is America. The bigger they are the harder they fall.
  
• Iran gets the bomb. Perhaps, in 2009 or 2010.
  
• Iran proliferates to its proxies...2010, 2011, or 2012
  
• Nuke used on West - In large European or American City...Or, tactical Nuke used on Tel Aviv, Israel...2011 to 2015
  
• Things go crazy and get quite nasty. World War and Global Depression.

Scenario Two

• Israel anticipates scenario one, that Iran will get a bomb and somehow will get it to Hamas or Hizbullah - the West and America, which has compelling economic interests, will refuse to launch a strike against Iran to prevent them from obtaining the bomb. Israel knows it can't do an adequate job because it needs the U.S. to get it done in a way that ensures that Iran will not get the bomb. Israel knows that the U.S. not only won't help Israel, but will oppose Israel because a depression will result no matter who attacks.
  
• Israel cannot accept scenario one; since it is too real.
  
• Israel understands it must attack Iran, even though the hit may be inadquate. The high probability of being hit with nukes, if it does nothing, is absolutely unacceptable.
  
• Israel concludes its own survival exceeds the needs of the world to avoid a global depression. Historically, Israel knows that every nation on earth has taken turns selling them out - Israel refuses to put itself on the alter to protect everyone else's comfort when their very existence is in play.
  
• Israel makes a difficult and existential decision - To hit Iran
  
• Israel hits Iran
  
• Global chaos and depression ensues
  
• Israel becomes the enemy of the world - And, now of America, too.
  
• Then, the real game is on for Israel's survival.
  
• Iran probably knows all this and thinks - "I win if I get nukes, I win if I don't; either way the rotten corpse of Zionism will perish." Iran thinks, "And, it won't even be by my hand. America loves its Chinese imports and SUVs so much - they'll be ready to do my dirty work. I win if I win, I win if I lose. Little Satan hurts big Satan then Big Satan uses the world to smash Little Satan to pieces. The Big Satan is a fat whore and will destroy anyone or anything that gets in the way of her black blood that keeps her alive - We control her black blood. All praise be to Allah! And, peace be upon his prophet Mohammed. "

My imagination is limited - Are there other scenarios?

Are the two scenarios above relevant?

I also look forward to some comments on Baer's article and the "United States Being Over a Barrel."....I think he is spot on.


Three Soldier Dad...Chuck

[stuW]

Gentlemen,

This doesn't seem to be typical Israeli style at all. Why would they announce they are planning an attack? I don't think in the history of Israel an announcement/public training event like this has ever been made - not in 56, 67, or '82 - and definitely not before Osirak. While its true that recently, Israel seems to have begun using more threats - they have threatened and then gone into Gaza and Lebanon in the past few years - the scale and importance of this attack strikes me as one that shouldn't have been made public. The only reason I can imagine the Israelis would have to engage in such actions would be if they believe Iran will heed such threats, which the Israelis don't believe. I agree with the Reaper's comments - this appears to be a rather odd strategy, and I don't see the benefit to it.

Also, perhaps some people smarter than me could explain the complexities of the strike that Israel is proposing, beyond the US and Israeli news articles. I noticed one story mentioned the Israelis would use a combination of air and ground forces. My impression is that Iran built its facilities to withstand an attack like this, at least from the air as a result of the Osirak attack i.e. several underground in mountains, spread across the county, some more secret than others. Also, would it be inaccurate to presume that Iran would send Shihab 3 missiles at Israel (perhaps other western allies) in response/during the attack? It made news when they tested it a few times, but the articles I've read don't seem to make the the connection between the fact that Iran recently obtained the capability to hit Israel with missiles from Iran, and Israel's aggressiveness towards Iran. (http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/man/.../shahab-3.html)

Cheers,

Stu

[MeC86]

The only explanation I can think of for Israel's current actions is because it does not want to go to war with Iran. They may have performed the demonstration as a deterrent, hoping the show of force will cause Iran to think twice about continued enrichment.

The US needs to find a new source of Oil or energy. That way Iran will have little to nothing to hang our our heads as a consequence for attack. Finding that solution, however, is easier said than done.

3 soldier dad - I've read "See No Evil." Excellent book. And your scenario's (including commentary) seem spot on.

[Richard]

A feint? I suspect whatever happens won't be so obvious; I wouldn't be. That's all I'll say on this forum.

Richard's $.02