North Korea: What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?

[CSB]

To answer the immediate (and Topic) "What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?"

Much like a band of crazies rushing into a Wal-Mart with katanas and pistols on a Sunday morning, they will do a considerable amount of damage and kill a large number of soft targets for a while, until the big boys show up.

When the fuel and food stop, so will the offensive. By that time the North Korean Army will be perhaps 30~50 miles into South Korea. Seoul will be heavily damaged, and the government will have displaced south, perhaps all the way to Pusan.

Like Pearl Harbor (and Singapore, and Manchuria, and Kuwait ...), there will be an initial success for North Korea, and then the bubble will burst. The biggest losers will be the South Korean pacifists.

Or maybe the biggest losers will be the North Korean government, who will run for China as quickly as Idi Amin ran for Saudi Arabia.

Because if they stay, the collapse of the North will result in a young man -- and many others -- hanging from the end of a rope.

The first rule for a dictator is:

Stay Alive.

The second rule of a dictator is:

Stay in Power.

The second rule should yield to the first.

Those who understood those rules lived, some very well:

Idi Amin.
The Shan of Iran.
Manuel Noriega.

Those who got the rules reversed suffered the consequences:

Sadaam Hussain.
Muammar Gaddafi.
Benito Mussolini.

Tis better to cut and run, than stay and be cut.


Anyway ... that's my opinion, and it ought to be yours.

{uh, Scout Platoon, 1/38 th Infantry "the Rock of the Marne", 2nd Infantry
Division, 1974~ 1975}

[grog18b]

Originally Posted by UWOA

Well now, the Chinese are gettin' in on the action. They've increased their activity/readiness for PRK by troop movements near the border ....

Yes, but are they doing that, preparing to help, or hurt?

You never know until the bullets start flying. China, after all, is still a Communist Country.

I served over a year in ROK 85-86. Any combat there is not going to be pleasant in any way shape or form. The South is prepared for a war, every mountain range is dug in, with roads going in at the base, and gun ports opening up out of the sides of the mountain. Every bridge is wired and ready to be blown. Every overpass is also wired. Every choke point has overpasses full of concrete and steel, waiting to come down on the roads. There will be no easy passage to Seoul, except by Arty. I spent time on GP Collier (spent my honeymoon in Bunker #5 with Fredricks... it was a blast.)

When this goes down, it is not going to be quick or easy. It's going to be bad. I feel for my relatives in SK now. I personally hope things will calm down, but with this little man syndrome Un has... He's going to rattle his little sabre off, then launch an attack. We would be neglect if we discount his ramblings. Remember the Boy Scouts... Be Prepared. All of NK is living in the 50s, and most have that way of thinking. When they do strike, and I think they will, I hope we hit them hard. Really, really hard.

But... there again is China...

{Aco 1/31 Inf (M) 2nd Inf Div ROK DMZ MP Jun-Aug 86 GP Collier and patrolling the Z. Imjin Scout}

[Dusty]

Originally Posted by CSB

To answer the immediate (and Topic) "What happens if Kim Jong-un acts on his threats?"

Much like a band of crazies rushing into a Wal-Mart with katanas and pistols on a Sunday morning, they will do a considerable amount of damage and kill a large number of soft targets for a while, until the big boys show up.

When the fuel and food stop, so will the offensive. By that time the North Korean Army will be perhaps 30~50 miles into South Korea. Seoul will be heavily damaged, and the government will have displaced south, perhaps all the way to Pusan.

Like Pearl Harbor (and Singapore, and Manchuria, and Kuwait ...), there will be an initial success for North Korea, and then the bubble will burst. The biggest losers will be the South Korean pacifists.

Or maybe the biggest losers will be the North Korean government, who will run for China as quickly as Idi Amin ran for Saudi Arabia.

Because if they stay, the collapse of the North will result in a young man -- and many others -- hanging from the end of a rope.

The first rule for a dictator is:

Stay Alive.

The second rule of a dictator is:

Stay in Power.

The second rule should yield to the first.

Those who understood those rules lived, some very well:

Idi Amin.
The Shan of Iran.
Manuel Noriega.

Those who got the rules reversed suffered the consequences:

Sadaam Hussain.
Muammar Gaddafi.
Benito Mussolini.

Tis better to cut and run, than stay and be cut.


Anyway ... that's my opinion, and it ought to be yours.

{uh, Scout Platoon, 1/38 th Infantry "the Rock of the Marne", 2nd Infantry
Division, 1974~ 1975}

lol Outstanding!

[The Reaper]

I disagree.

This is the little kid, running his big mouth. He isn't going to start the fight after all of the threats, while we are ready and watching his every move. This is all posturing, IMHO.

He is going to wait till this has all returned to normal and then, out of the blue, WHAM!

I agree that the North cannot take the South, but what will the South pay them to stop after an hour or two of watching Seoul get pasted?

TR

[UWOA (RIP)]

Originally Posted by grog18b

Yes, but are they doing that, preparing to help, or hurt?

You never know until the bullets start flying. China, after all, is still a Communist Country.

When this goes down, it is not going to be quick or easy. It's going to be bad. I feel for my relatives in SK now. I personally hope things will calm down, but with this little man syndrome Un has... He's going to rattle his little sabre off, then launch an attack. We would be neglect if we discount his ramblings. Remember the Boy Scouts... Be Prepared. All of NK is living in the 50s, and most have that way of thinking. When they do strike, and I think they will, I hope we hit them hard. Really, really hard.

But... there again is China...

I don't think China is there to help or hurt North Korea (North Korea is/was a buffer state and the Chinese favor the status quo until something better comes along) ... they're looking after they're own interests. Remember that a lot of the NK nuke stuff is close to the China border. If hostilities break out China knows that those facilities will be targeted and destroyed ... they're worried about the 'downwind message'. Their show of force on the northern border is to remind the North Koreans that China, while a benefactor, has a lot to lose if North Korea overplays its hand. Their rhetoric (critical of North Korea's actions) and the show of force are a splash of cold water in North Korea's face. The Chinese don't want to act, but will if their hand is forced ....

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

I disagree.

This is the little kid, running his big mouth. He isn't going to start the fight after all of the threats, while we are ready and watching his every move. This is all posturing, IMHO.

He is going to wait till this has all returned to normal and then, out of the blue, WHAM!

I agree that the North cannot take the South, but what will the South pay them to stop after an hour or two of watching Seoul get pasted?

TR

Isn't North Korea pretty much Tony Soprano with national sovereignty and a poopy homemade nuke?

Looking back at incidents like the Pong Su lend evidence to the fact that North Korea is a narco-criminal nation state.

And instead of having the criminal prosecutor on payroll and compromising photos....it has a 1st gen nuke.

I agree largely with CSB, bar swapping Idi Amin with Quaddafi.

Idi Amin pissed in his own punch bowl by invading Tanzania.

Qaddafi started kitten fights with Egypt and Chad(even had a hand in trying to prop up Amin in Uganda) and funded pretty much anyone who called themselves a terrorist or freedom fighter.....but he managed to stay in power circa 40 years......that's a Pro Bowl level of dictatorial longevity.

Anywho....here's my take:

20-15 years ago:

North Korea rattles the sabre and everyone jumps to pay them off. Why? It's the start of the Dot Com tech bubble/boom.....no one wants to upset the apple cart....there's too much money to be made...so pay the extortion bill.

15-10 years ago:

North Korea rattles the sabre and everyone jumps to pay them off. Why? The Dot Com tech boom busted, but the property bubble/boom is well underway and no one want to upset the apple cart....there's too much money to be made...and 9/11, Afghan, Iraq makes an NK distraction too big a bowling ball to swallow with the rest....so pay the extortion bill.

10-5 years ago:

North Korea rattles the sabre and lights off a nuke. North Korea is also getting busted for running drugs, counterfeiting, and god knows what else. The equities markets are dead(bar commodities), the property bubble is a dead man walking, Afghan/Iraq are hoovering up military resources and national treasure, inflation is ramping up, and financial instability/shockwaves are looking likely. People are no longer worried about NK possibly ruining the party, we're now worried about NK stupidity tipping us into a financial black hole.

TODAY:

North Korea regime transition and sabre rattling. The world is financially F***ed. There is NO hope of a quick financial recovery. There is a DESPERATE need to reboot both the US and the global financial system thru radical change. There is NO appetite for comprehensive bipartisan majority supported domestic reform. And there's even less global consensus on global financial reform.

The change in circumstances between today and 5,10,15,20 years ago is significant.

I believe we are no longer in an environment where we feel we have too much to lose, I believe a Machiavellian option is changing from highly unlikely to at least the realm of possibility.

If North Korea was a spark for a regional conflict(same with Pakistan), it could present an opportunity for the US to leverage its unprecedented force projection capability before it inevitably attrits over time due to financial unsustainability.

While the US is a mess right now....it is a highly flexible mess. While China might best be described as a bit like some forms of steel....strong.....but inflexible and at risk of shattering.

Both a North Korean and Pakistani sparked regional conflict could see China getting sucked into it.

In both cases, in the past, the US would be very quick to step in de-escalate conflict risk....as it WAS in US best interest to do so.

Is it STILL in the US strategic best interest to de-escalate conflict risk between North and South Korea and Pak-India?

In geopolitical chess, would an act of omission(US choosing not to de-escalate or acting too slowly to de-escalate conflict risk) rather than an act of commission possibly see China sucked into a regional conflict, increase risk of China shattering, and see the US whole and still in the driver's seat for what comes next as well as the excuse for comprehensive and aggression reform?

Although the risk of comprehensive reform going against the grain of what most on this forum would prefer would be quite high with the current administration.

Never let a good crisis go to waste X one million.

[airbornediver]

I don't think the current admin is enough of a hawk to be preemptive however I do think that if the North does attack, its gonna be a really nasty battle until the rest of the US Forces shows up. When I was there {96-98 1/503rd IN} we were told that we were pretty much a speed bump to slow the NK down as much as possible until the main US Forces showed up.

One thing I do remember is that are some well fortified tunnels and extremely well hidden pillboxes at the end of those tunnels with about 60 years of growth aiding their camouflage. And that those hills/mountains are a bitch. So definitely not easy terrain at all.

My grandfather, who was in the Korean War at its start, told his brother before he died that his entire European theatre of WW2 was a cakewalk compared to the horrors he saw in Korean War. {WW2 B/5th Ranger, KW 19th IN Rgt/24th ID}

[Team Sergeant]

We responded by sending "one" Arleigh Burke Class, Aegis guided missile destroyer. Big deal. I'll take note when we send a battle group or two. The little fat boy just wants some attention, he got it. Now he'll retreat to suck on his pacifier.

Let me know when a few carriers are in striking distance.

[steel_eel]

"Anonymous" hacked their flickr/propaganda account. Now we're really in trouble

http://www.flickr.com/photos/uriminzokkiri

[Richard]

Looks like Lil' Kim's been having bad dreams and wetting the bed again...

Richard

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by Richard

Looks like Lil' Kim's been having bad dreams and wetting the bed again...

Richard

Biden in a Gen-1 Godzilla outfit is a nice touch.

[Team Sergeant]

Maybe fat cheeks is still a little pissed.........

[akv]

Well now we know what it's like when Eric Cartman runs a country?

My $.02, Kim's age, gravitas, and preening after Dennis Rodman like a prepubescent teen doesn't awe the wolves in his Army. I think he knows he has to draw some blood, declare victory, and prove to his minions he can be as ruthless as his predecessors without starting a war, maybe a naval exchange or shell that island again. I don't think the annual posturing around the time of US/ROK exercises cuts it for him this time.

[mark46th]

I hope Korea doesn't start but if it does, let's finish this shit once and for all. Beat them into the ground, disarm them, hang Un and the generals, and let South Korea run their economy.

[Dusty]

Originally Posted by mark46th

I hope Korea doesn't start but if it does, let's finish this shit once and for all. Beat them into the ground, disarm them, hang Un and the generals, and let South Korea run their economy.

If he pops one next Wednesday as implied, it's gonna create an unbelievable diversion from the economy. They'll talk about Korea and not much else all the way up until the Congressional elections.