09-10-2004, 03:11
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#16
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: NC
Posts: 995
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I keep hearing that NC is swing? There's a massive 'NC is Kerry Country' grafitti on our bridge...
Will remove once ropes and paint are aquired.
Solid
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Solid is offline
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09-10-2004, 05:33
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#17
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,824
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Solid
I keep hearing that NC is swing? There's a massive 'NC is Kerry Country' grafitti on our bridge...
Will remove once ropes and paint are aquired.
Solid
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Not by any credible poll I have seen.
You are living in the most liberal part of the state.
Don't remove it, just change Kerry to Bush.
TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
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The Reaper is offline
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09-10-2004, 05:57
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#18
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: NC
Posts: 995
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That's what I meant 
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Solid is offline
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09-10-2004, 09:02
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#19
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 1,952
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bravo1-3
I'd like to know how each is doing by state (electoral stats) rather than just pop demographics. Kerry is going to win Washington State barring some miracle. Oregon is still up in the air, and with the Sec States latest antics, a lot of people are seeing the local DNC for what it really is. Oregon could actually go GOP this year.
It's electoral votes that count, is there a source of info for candidates "by state"?
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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
He keeps track of all the polls, including state polls.
Oregon: a poll conducted 8/26-9/1 by Riley Research Associates of Portland for the Oregonian gave Bush 46% and Kerry 45%, with Nader at 1% and 6% undecided. A Zogby poll conducted on 9/2 had Kerry over Bush 53% to 43%. Which do you think is more reliable? I do find it odd that Zogby thinks its poll is reliable: it was a single day telephone poll on the last day of the Republican convention. If conducted during the day, Democrats are likely overrepresented (you get more students, retirees and unemployed people during the day). If conducted during the evening, many Republicans were likely watching the convention and not answering the phone.
Washington: in three recent polls, 2 have Kerry up by 8, and one has Kerry up by 2.
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Airbornelawyer is offline
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09-10-2004, 09:35
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#20
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Area Commander
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Buckingham, Pa.
Posts: 1,746
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Airbornelawyer
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
A Zogby poll conducted on 9/2 had Kerry over Bush 53% to 43%. Which do you think is more reliable? I do find it odd that Zogby thinks its poll is reliable: it was a single day telephone poll on the last day of the Republican convention. If conducted during the day, Democrats are likely overrepresented (you get more students, retirees and unemployed people during the day). If conducted during the evening, many Republicans were likely watching the convention and not answering the phone.
Washington: in three recent polls, 2 have Kerry up by 8, and one has Kerry up by 2.
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Take Zogby with a very large grain of salt. He and his brother James who leads the Arab American Institute, have both been very critical of the administartion post 9/11. Since it is very easy to change the outcome of a poll by changing its wording one has to wonder if his personal bias against the President has somehow worked its way into his polling. Since his polls rarely tend to jibe with other polls I am doubtful of their accuracy.
http://www.aaiusa.org/zogby/zogby_home.htm
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rubberneck is offline
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09-10-2004, 10:27
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#21
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,824
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It occurs to me that pollsters who provide clients with bad data, don't keep said clients for very long after they are proven false.
Just my .02, YMMV.
TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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The Reaper is offline
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09-11-2004, 13:35
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#22
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,824
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Now here is some good polling news from Gallup.
I like the Electoral Map and numbers!
http://www.gallup.com/election2004/showdown/
TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
De Oppresso Liber 01/20/2025
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The Reaper is offline
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09-11-2004, 15:29
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#23
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Guerrilla Chief
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Vancouver (Not BC), Washington (Not DC)
Posts: 505
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That's a lot of electoral votes that Bush could lose. Not to be a pessimist, but right now the election is Bush's to lose.
Bush is ahead by 39 Electoral votes (270 to win) IF he finishes with 271 like last time, Kerry will have 277 for the win. I'm not sure it is mathematically possible for that kind of division to happen, I even doubt it is possible for BOTH candidates to finish with more than 269 votes, but who the hell knows.
I'd love to see Bush continue to hold the lead he has as reflected in the Gallup Poll, but I think it will be closer in the Electoral vote. Some of the polling data shown is a bit dated, and a lot of it is well within the margin of error:
Wisconson polling data is from the last week of August, with 48% Bush, 45% Kerry, and 2% Nader. The Margin is 5%. 3% undecided. Too close to call in my book.
Pennsylvania is 48% / 47% / 0 / 5% with a 5% Margin. Too close to call.
Florida is 48%/ 46% / 2% with a margin of 4%. Not nearly a lock, and dated in the last weeks of August. I hate to say it, but maybe if FEMA doesn't drop the ball, those numbers will change to a wider spread.
In addition, some of the 2000 "Blue States" look like they may change over, if they have not already done so.
This is slightly more current info, and leaves states inside the MoE out of the tally:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/election_2004.htm
Last edited by Bravo1-3; 09-11-2004 at 15:32.
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Bravo1-3 is offline
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09-11-2004, 16:28
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#24
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Quiet Professional
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: Free Pineland
Posts: 24,824
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bravo1-3
That's a lot of electoral votes that Bush could lose. Not to be a pessimist, but right now the election is Bush's to lose.
Bush is ahead by 39 Electoral votes (270 to win) IF he finishes with 271 like last time, Kerry will have 277 for the win.
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No, if Bush has 270, Kerry will only have 268. There are only 538 EC votes, to my knowledge, not 548.
Concur that the election is Bush's to lose, and I hope he holds his own at the debates. Given Kerry's flip-flopping and refusal to take a consistent position, that shouldn't be too difficult.
OTOH, I have decided certain polls are too biased to use. Zogby comes to mind. My money is on Bush to win.
TR
__________________
"It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat." - President Theodore Roosevelt, 1910
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