Yes...but I'm not sure it's an easy lesson. In fact, it may be quite a painful lesson.
On the one hand, our present spending pattern is less one of borrowing than of printing. The Federal Reserve (I call them the Fed) is purchasing U.S. debt, and in a sense, bailing out the U.S. Congress. The term used is "Quantitative Easing". So...the dollar declines compared to other currencies and also commodities. Everyone gets hurt, at least a little.
But there is another side. What is GDP? It can be written as:
GDP = G + I + C + (E - Im)
With G as Government spending
I as private Investment
C as private Consumption
E as Exports
Im as Imports
So, if we cut G - Government spending - then GDP goes down. Growth in the other terms could offset it, but to really control the deficit we need big numbers. Bigger than Ryan's actually.
Could we raise taxes? Sure. But that must surely reduce private Consumption and Investment, so GDP goes down again.
This implies that cutting our excess spending will result in a lot of economic pain, including greater unemployment. Probably much greater unemployment.
If we put spending cuts off, then the pain, eventually, will be even worse.
What to do? I suppose we should endure a lot of pain today in exchange for a better future a decade or more in the future. I cannot see the voters going along with that. I'm not sure I want to go along with it, since there are ways to make money from the current pattern. Bottom line, I see no solution until we hit a crisis.
Do I vote? Absolutely. I enjoy voting against politicians I don't like. It's a cheap thrill....
