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Old 05-14-2010, 09:39   #16
incarcerated
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“Western powers, please allow me to invoke the war dead of decades past and preach peace from my Red Square bully pulpit. Look the other way as we invade or subvert our Russian neighbors as we restore our national strength.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/237945

Russian Payback

The democratic revolutions in former Soviet republics like Georgia and Ukraine terrified Moscow. Now the Kremlin is turning back the clock.
By Owen Matthews and Anna Nemtsova
Newsweek Web Exclusive
May 13, 2010
Half a decade after a series of "colored revolutions" toppled Moscow-backed rulers across the former Soviet Union and replaced them with pro-Western ones, the Kremlin seems to be finally getting its payback. Already this year Russia can count two scalps—Ukraine's Viktor Yushchenko and Kyrgyzstan's Kurmanbek Bakiyev, both ousted by challengers friendlier to Moscow. While it would be a stretch to say that Russia was the sole architect and puppet master of Ukraine's February presidential election and Kyrgyzstan's messy coup in April, the country certainly played a key role. It sheltered and supported Kyrgyz opposition leaders and made it clear to Ukrainian voters that a victory for Viktor Yanukovych would usher in a new era of cheap gas and increased trade. Moreover, this year's strategic victories have inspired the Kremlin to encourage further regime change in what Russians still call their "near abroad."

....Despite such mishaps, though, the Kremlin is sticking to its strategy: to befriend and empower groups that oppose Moscow's enemies. Belarus's mercurial President Alexander Lukashenko could soon be on the Kremlin's target list after demanding rent for Russian military bases and sheltering the ousted Kyrgyz president. "Russia is terribly tired of Lukashenko and is looking for a decent leader to replace him," says Igor Bunin of Moscow's Center of Political Technologies. Moscow's candidate of choice could well be Andrei Sannikov, a veteran Belarussian opposition leader who is not too close to the West and has declared that he is "ready to embrace Russian help if it comes from the right people." Lukashenko, he says, "has been scared lately after he saw how Russia can support a revolution in former Soviet countries."

The silver lining in Russia's new strategy is that it could actually mark an end of Putin-era bullying tactics and the beginning of something more approaching real diplomacy. Instead of invading—as it did with Georgia in 2008—or cutting off gas supplies, as it has done to Ukraine in the past, the Kremlin is starting to cultivate relationships with regional opposition leaders not just on Russia's terms but on the basis of mutual interest. "We have been telling the Kremlin that if they do not stop treating neighbors like enemies, somebody else will come and win their hearts," says Alexei Malashenko of the Moscow Carnegie Center. "Moscow's new approach means, I hope, that they will start listening to different opinions with more respect." That may not sound as dramatic as orchestrating revolutions. But it could be the start of making the post-Soviet space a community, rather than a battleground.
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Old 05-14-2010, 10:05   #17
Crue
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Old habits hard to break

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...ring-86422687/

The recent crash of a Polish military transport that killed most of Warsaw's senior civilian and military leaders was not only a human catastrophe for a key U.S. ally. NATO sources said that, in addition to the loss of nearly 100 pro-U.S. Polish leaders, the crash provided Moscow with a windfall of secrets.

The crash killed Polish President Lech Kaczynski in western Russia on April 10 and decapitated Poland's military, killing two service chiefs, key military aides and several national security officials, many of whom were carrying computers and pocket memory sticks that contained sensitive NATO data.

Perhaps the most significant compromise, according to a NATO intelligence source, is that the Russians are suspected of obtaining ultrasecret codes used by NATO militaries for secure satellite communications.


The compromise of the codes is considered what electronic spies call a "break" for Moscow code-breakers. New NATO codes almost certainly were issued to allied militaries immediately after the crash.

But if the Russian electronic intelligence service, known as the Federal Agency of Government Communications and Information, was able to recover and use the communication key code from the wreckage, electronic spies will be able to decode months' or perhaps years' worth of scrambled communications that are routinely gathered electronically for just such an occasion.

The coded communications, if decrypted, would reveal some of NATO's most intimate secrets, such as plans for defenses and even the identities of agents or allied eavesdropping sources.

Other Polish and NATO secrets also were believed to be aboard the jet, and so far Russia's government is refusing to cooperate fully with Poland's government in providing details on the cause of the crash, or even to turn over the Polish jet's black boxes.

Additionally, Poland's interim government has not pressed the Russians for answers to questions about the crash, such as why Russian aviation authorities, without any investigation, ruled that pilot error caused the crash minutes after the jet crashed short of the runway in fog at Russia's Smolensk airport. Polish security and aviation authorities also were denied access to the crash site.
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