A survival scenario: What do you do?

[NoRoadtrippin]

See, I have got to stop reading threads like this or "Be Prepared."

I read comments from TR, TS, or others and have to continually remind myself that these people have 20-30 years (or more for some) of thinking in this mindset.

Gotta keep reminding myself, one supply at a time....can't buy it all in a day.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by NoRoadtrippin

See, I have got to stop reading threads like this or "Be Prepared."

I read comments from TR, TS, or others and have to continually remind myself that these people have 20-30 years (or more for some) of thinking in this mindset.

Gotta keep reminding myself, one supply at a time....can't buy it all in a day.

You can be a little more prepared at the end of every day.

As the saying goes, "The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step."

Keep it up. You'll be ahead of 90% of the population.

TR

Have an Exit Plan. It always falls to an exit plan. A strong hold will only last days / weeks at best, depending on ability to defend, limited ammo, water/food.

Currently, I have a location already selected outside my current larger(er) town residence.

The selected area has stored water, food, dry goods, (wheat, honey, dehydrated friuts, vegtables), fuel, (gas, oil, wood, etc.), and medical supplies. The plan requires no call out, but incident occuried actions, (i.e., earthquake, another 9/11 level attack, epidemic outbreak, etc), we leave immediately. Regional problems, we watch the news, assembly will be dillberate but planned. We expect no commmercial/public comm's to work after 7-10 days, we have dead drop letter locations planned out. Ciphered text, one time pads, key phrases, etc.

Those who assemble are, civil engineers, doctors, educators, and fabricators. On site is a fully functioning blacksmith shop, medical supplies, building materials, garden and wind powered water pump. Group dynamics are as follows: Adults Male, ages 25-50, Female, ages 18-45, numbering 20. Children, teenages 13-18, numbering 10. Children under age 12, number 6, infants, under age two, none, (just had a birthday, age 3).

All that is required to Mob-out, is one vehicle per family household, full fuel tank, "go bags" are packed, extra fuel is in garage, (have access to enough fuel to travel a 500 mile range). Grab weapons, (1) personal kit, limited to 45 lbs. Legal docs., birth certificates, medical records that are currently safe, copies are in the freezer. Copy of everything is sceured in two addional locations, (east and west coast families). No mention of "location" is recorded or known of by outside parties.

Area is defendable, but not permanent. Would require experienced force to capture and or occupy without sustaining heavy casulties. "Families" involved understand that we might not stay, but continue to be mobile.

Plan on being miserable for longer than anyone expects.

Someone once said, "...you truely own that which you can carry and run".

I'm good for (1) weapon, 360 rds., basic load, (1) days rations/water and a small child. Let's hope it dose'nt get to that.

WD

[nmap]

Fascinating answers - and enlightening. Thought provoking in the best way.

With regard to total societal breakdown, I agree - preparation for such an event is problematic at best. The likelihood of long term survival is not good. And yet, when I use Google News and enter the term {home invasion} I get 7,973 hits. This is a troubling trend.

I noticed that the Cairo, Illinois police department had most of its patrol cars repossessed and went from 29 to 5 staff. LINK So I ask myself at what point the thin blue line no longer can maintain order.

If matters get worse - will the police department even have 5 officers? Will they even have 1?

And all of this flows from too many bad home mortgages - that shouldn't even come close to producing a "zombie" scenario.

[Peregrino]

Interesting. I think between TR and Mugwump we've got the Alpha and Omega covered. Others have done a creditable job of filling gaps. Unfortunately I find my personal mobility has become very restricted of the last few years so while my contingencies mirror the strong points, I've had to expand in a slightly different direction. My plans now incorporate more reliance on relationships than they did previously. Lots of benefit in strong communities. Brings to mind the Chinese parable about the father who needs to select his heir. He gives his sons a bundle of sticks and commands them to break the bundle. The one who succeeds wins. Like all parables, this one has a lesson. Survival in this scenario is all about community - what kind of support net have you created in your local community? Church, Scouting, and sports (Little League & Pee Wee Football - soccer not so much) are the social organizations most likely to yield relationships that might be valuable. (Yes - I am shamelessly exploiting a stereotype!) All of them require a significant investment before they will bear fruit (just like Mugwump's comments about farming - still cultivating, just a different crop). Might have to be a little flexible about your belief system in order to integrate into a tight knit (but potentially valuable) community (Amish, Menonites, and Mormons come to mind). Inflexible people will quickly find their options have narrowed to less than survival threshold. Fascinating series of psych tests from the 50's/60's variously referred to as lifeboat or fallout shelter tests. If you aren't familiar with them, you might want to try taking one. The experience can be illuminating.

Originally Posted by nmap

I noticed that the Cairo, Illinois police department had most of its patrol cars repossessed and went from 29 to 5 staff.

If matters get worse - will the police department even have 5 officers? Will they even have 1?

.

I have noticed that in the latest situations. The local towns contract with the county sheriff's office for protection and enforcement.

[The Reaper]

If you want a educational, but depressing read about a post-EMP survival scenario, get "One Second After", which nmap alluded to earlier.

The worst part is that it is completely plausible.

How much hangs on those thin wires that support our lives?

TR

[Surf n Turf]

Originally Posted by nmap

So I ask myself at what point the thin blue line no longer can maintain order.

nmap,
I believe that the “thin blue line” has just about kept its head above water for the last 10 years. In the larger cities they have already lost – they are outnumbered 10 to 1.
If a SHTF moment comes, LE will not be able to control their environment, then your thread starts, and its every person for themselves (and family)
SnT

[PSM]

May I offer this:

Our former ranch, in the Oklahoma Panhandle, comes very close to fitting nmap's scenario: N36° 43' 50.40", W101° 21' 3.34"

The ranch was a full section (640 acres) but was split by a river. We raised cattle on the South side and had a horse pasture on the North. The pasture is roughly the 32 acres.

The house dimensions are similar. A "guest" house was built in an excavated dugout found on the property and a mobile home was added later by my step father.

This is real property, in a specific location, near specific cities, with specific terrain features.

Pat

[mojaveman]

There's been some valuable information posted on this thread. A few tips on urban survival would be interesting. I live in Southern California and one of my greatest fears is suffering a major earthquake. A scenario like the riots in Los Angeles in '92 might pale in comparision to what could happen. Really, in a worst case scenario my plan is to travel to northern Michigan where some of my relatives live on large farms in sparsely populated areas.

[nmap]

Originally Posted by Rangertab1

I will post if you like. TR's number is close. Mine is more hopeful, his is more realistic.

I'd like to see your thoughts.

Originally Posted by Rangertab1

I thought the AF will fly forever. No?

Rhetorical question: How many hours of maintenance is required per hour in the air? (Yes, I know - it varies).

Rhetorical question: After USAF stocks of parts are depleted, how practical is additional procurement? (My impression - potentially problematic).

It may fly forever, but it may not fly nearly as much.

[greenberetTFS]

Originally Posted by Rangertab1

Based off some population number crunching, I would like to weed out the weak before I get started.

Of our 300ish million citizens, roughly 35 million are over 65 years of age including my parents who will have a very difficult time doing much of anything and will almost be a burden to the core family. 180 million are overweight (with 54 million being obese) and won’t be able to run, march, stay awake at night while on security or resist from eating all the children’s cookies. Arguably, 200 million are clueless and don’t know east from west or how to think of anything remotely survivalistic or common sensical. Mix these numbers up and pull out 2/3 of the people.

So lets say within the first few days, maybe weeks, some 200 million Americans, or 2/3, die off, kill each other or need to die, leaving 100 million men, women, and children under 18 (25% of the population). If it is winter time, expect 2/3 of any northern population to perish, easily within two winters. All of this is hoping that all the decaying bodies don’t spark outbreaks of disease.

So, after all the fighting for security and other essentials, I will estimate that only 100 million Americans will be living 6 months from Day+1. Of these, roughly 30% will be evil and criminal. Some areas will do well and have less criminal/evil people and will deal with them swiftly. Because evil will be within the community, it is shameful to not know who they are right now. People may change, but usually for the worst under these conditions.

Those living in your scenario will not fare well NMAP and will struggle greatly to survive. After good versus evil, say 50-60 million damb fine Americans make it to the next phase, which is D+3 years. If the Mayan's tales are correct, this number could be much lower, maybe, but so will the rest of the world. With 50 million, minus 12 million kids and 20 million women, we will have 18 million men. Most of which will be hard and learned and hopeful of the future. If others leave us alone, we will rebuild and become strong again. Then, the cycle begins all over again. My figures are rough and rounded off.

Rangertab1,

I've got a problem with your scenario...... I'm over 65,actually 72. I'm also obese at 290 lbs,6'1"...... Maybe I'd even eat the children's cookies(nope on second thought I'd doubt it),but what really strikes me is the comment"need to die"........

Big Teddy

[kgoerz]

Originally Posted by Surf n Turf

nmap,
I believe that the “thin blue line” has just about kept its head above water for the last 10 years. In the larger cities they have already lost – they are outnumbered 10 to 1.
If a SHTF moment comes, LE will not be able to control their environment, then your thread starts, and its every person for themselves (and family)
SnT

Katrina is a good example of this. Local LEO took off to take care of their own Family, who can blame them. When Hurricane Gustav hit last year. All the local LEO families were evacuated and taken care of before hand. But in an emergency this won't happen.
I had a House isolated from the main road on 45 Acres of land. I had the provisions, Ammo, Generators, gas all stored up. I'm sure I could of lived for over a year where I was. Well, thats all fine and dandy if you can afford a set up like this. Many can't.
I am saving now to be set up like this again in the future. You know the deal. Every ten years give away everything you own to the ex
But now I live in an Apartment one Block over from the US Capital. I would like to know what a person living in a City could do to prepare. Living where I do my main concerns are.

1. Escape, get the hell out of here: I always fill up my Tank when returning to the City. It is illegal to have any type of extra Gas stored in a container in your Truck here.
2. Still have my Ammo and Guns. I have a Go Bag with extra Mags and my AR locked and loaded by it's side. But thats more for the LEO in me. If an India type of Terrorist Attack happens here I want to be ready for them. I also have my personal Body Armor marked with Police on the front and back. Plus my Police Hat. Friendly fire is a big concern.
3. Have about two weeks of water and food.
4. $1000 in cash
5. Battery operated Radio and lantern/plenty of batteries.
6. All of my camping/wilderness survival Gear is stored in one container that I can easily grab.

Please add your recomendations..........

[Defender968]

Originally Posted by Surf n Turf

nmap,
I believe that the “thin blue line” has just about kept its head above water for the last 10 years. In the larger cities they have already lost – they are outnumbered 10 to 1.
If a SHTF moment comes, LE will not be able to control their environment, then your thread starts, and its every person for themselves (and family)
SnT

Completely concur, I was pondering this last night driving back from DC, I would guess most large depts will be able to last maybe 14 days MAX, providing very minimal services. I visited the Spy museum this week and one of the scenario’s there was a hack into the power grid causing 100% of the power to go out, which got me to thinking about a complex attack beginning with a cyber attack on power followed up by an EMP from a nuclear device in the right place, and how such an attack would affect local LE.

Local LE (large depts.) will be able (if they have sufficient numbers of officers who stick around) to respond for a few days. My old department had a backup generator (powered by natural gas IIRC) and it's own gas station. The problem as I see it is that if all power goes down, there won't be calls to respond too as all civil communication will be down, so they will be reduced to simple patrolling to maintain order, this works minimally until they are ambushed or the gas pump goes dry, and they won't be able to come to anyone's aid like people are used to. They will be able to help only if they happen on the situation during a patrol. Also if we're talking about 100% power outages how long does the Natural Gas flow to their generator, I assume somewhere there is a pump requiring power that makes it flow? If you lose power to control (dispatch) to direct officers to each other for backup the police force will quickly be overwhelmed and likely neutralized (read killed) by the mobs, you could go to patrolling in 2 cars with 4 man squads but that is manpower intensive and even with 4 LEO's I suspect they'll be quickly overwhelmed by an angry mob. Without power I don't think the local LE will be a player after 14 days, which as others have said, means you're on your own 100% at that time, smaller departments with less resources will be ineffective much quicker IMO. If the governor called out the National Guard quickly to Large cities that may prolong the situation for a little while, but I think ultimately we get to the same place.


Just my .02

[Paslode]

I am set pretty well for say an ice storm and a week or two at home. If things were looking really serious, my plan is to head to the deep woods with my many cousins.