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Originally Posted by smp52
I wouldn't bet on anyone becoming a 'superpower' anymore. It's simply too costly to do so. Sure, India will probably have better long term growth potential that is far more manageable, but a superpower on the level of the USA, I think not. They have a long way to go. This in no way implies it won't hold strong economic influence, but there is still a difference between a superpower economy built on solid infrastructure (energy, roads, education, military reach). India doesn't have near the necessary resources for its population (nor does China). We don't either, right now, BUT when we needed local resources during our ascent, we had it all. Now that we're at the top, we're simply sustaining it. Maybe if India or China had say, North American natural resources, it would really help them out.
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I agree China will never mature to a super power in any 20th century sense of the meaning of super power...Those days are over. The U.S. is, and probably will be, the last super power as we think of it (
unless the planet sees some kind of global fascist dictatorship - a successful global jihad for example <read Mark Steyn -
America Alone >- God forbid).
China is powerful and will become more so as they progress and this will be true even if they're economy falls apart; their sheer numbers guarantee that they will always be formidable.
Here's a thumbnail measure concerning the character of a country.... When a country perceives itself as big and strong what do they do then? I think China is starting to sense that they are big and powerful - and, globally so - What are they doing then? Seems like they are endeavoring to throw their weight around - intimidate their neighbors, threaten their "customers"...show-off by reminding folks what they could do if they wanted to.
The U.S. on the other hand has been a
REAL super power now for at least 60 years (not a wanna-be)- How often has the U.S. used its power gratuitously? Yes, we have done so - but, not often and not much by degree.
I'm currently reading
Legacy of Ashes by Tim Weiner - Great read. It's a fascinating history of the CIA since its founding in 1948. The book provides many examples of America’s global machinations. The United States has certainly abused its power - But, no power in history has never not abused its power. What is remarkable is how much the U.S. COULD HAVE abused its power and CAN abuse its power and hasn't and doesn't. As noted in another thread, like George Washington walking away from absolute power - It's amazing - simply mind-boggling amazing at the restraint, generosity and innocence of this nation. I think of that Mel Brooks film, with the theme that the fastest way to prosperity for a country was to fight and lose to America.
In comparison to other nations and/or empires down through history America has been a gentle giant and a benign power - America enabled a global industrial revolution and even now an information based world; while at the same time stabilizing our world and keeping it relatively free. As we survey our past, the world is more free today than it has ever been.
China is growing-up and what do we see? Some disturbing things...Its alliances with the enemies of freedom, its giving short shrift to law and order, its shoulder-shrugging approach to global institutions, its disdain for its own people's human rights...I expect we'll see some unsightly muscle flexing by the Chinese nation, its people, and its culture - and, why is this so? - As Thomas Freidman says when speaking about the Arabs, "
The most difficult challenge for a people and a culture to overcome is its historical humiliation." The Chinese have been global losers for 300 hundred years and now they're hungry to overcome that historical humiliation.
IMO, China will not imbibe well the strong liquor of power.
I'd
so love to be wrong....And, as my wife likes to remind me - It happens.
Three Soldier Dad...Chuck
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