Porter Goss has resigned

[Roguish Lawyer]

"Top talent" or incompetent morons in top positions?

(Not that I would know . . .)

[NousDefionsDoc]

I think Negroponte is going to end up being the mistake in this whole deal. There's no way I would have picked from State for that position.

[Cincinnatus]

Out of my lane, but I agree. Negroponte's appointment has the earmarks of a mistake of monumental proportions.

[Danila]

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

I don't like this analysis. Let's take the first block.
1. How exactly does infiltrating a terrorist group stop the violence? Eventually you will be able to destroy the group, but I don't see this at all. And look at the implied tasks that go with this. Much easier said than done.

2. Again, how is this on the Agency? There are billions of Muslims. AQ's grandparents were born in Egypt. How in the hell are they supposed to influence events in the Territories? Algeria? COME ON!

3. How?

Of course I can only speculate as I have no experience in intelligence -- I was just a grunt in the IDF for a very short while. But DEBKAfile gathers its information from their connections in various intelligence communities around the world (probably mostly Mossad and Shabbak) and their analysis likely reflects comments they've heard from such agents.

1. Infiltrating a terrorist group -- whether by placing agents who are native speakers of the language and know the culture (much more difficult for the US in Iraq than for Israel in the West Bank or Gaza, of course) or buying those connected to a group -- allows for access to information such as hide-outs, movements of operatives, and painting targets. Israel has been using these techniques for a while. Then again, Israel has far better knowledge of its territories from a longer history than the US of Iraq. Israel also has a large population of native- or heritage-speakers of Arabic who look like Arabs in its military and in its other security services. The United States does not.

2. If the CIA were to identify terrorist organizations' operatives and track their movements, they would better be able to inform other governments of infiltrations and, hopefully, of where these operatives have been setting up camp. Egypt, notably, has recently had extremely low success in battling Al Qaeda camps in the Sinai. Al Qaeda has been there for a while and appears to be fairly secure there. It looks like they were not sufficiently monitored.

Further, according to Debka, the US military has claimed that it is near to catching Zarqawi. If it's so hot on his trail, how can he be expanding his organization so successfully? From what I've been reading, Zarqawi's Al Qaeda wing relies on central planning and hierarchical structure to a greater extent than bin Laden's Al Qaeda. When Israel started hitting Hamas targets about a year ago, Hamas's activities dropped significantly when leaders' communications and mobility were hampered. We don't see that in the case of Zarqawi. Does this indicate that
(a)al-Qaeda in Iraq is not a centrally-planned organization? I recall that the Jordan bombings were apparently planned in part by Zarqawi himself, with his right-hand man sent as a suicide bomber.
or,
(b)Zarqawi isn't really all that close to being caught?

3. No clue. But I wonder why no action seems to have been taken? Should Iranian agents be given free access to Iraq and especially its government?

All that I see -- from far away, of course -- is that the CIA doesn't seem to be doing an amazing job at stemming terrorist organizations' growth and continued operation. The expansion of Zarqawi's network is particularly troubling, and part of the fault lies with Israel's new government in my opinion. Maybe these tasks are extremely difficult for any intelligence agency to accomplish. But should that be an excuse for a lack of success in these times when good actionable intelligence is of central importance?

[NousDefionsDoc]

1. As you said. You identified very well just a few of the problems with, "Just bop on down there and sign up." Also, there are issues with anybody joining AQ. The information is available.

2. To compare HAMAS with AQ is in my opinion, not valid. HAMAS is a fixed target. Clearly defined limits and limitations. Not really even covert. Iraq is much different. HAMAS could probably be better compared with the IRA in this discussion.

3. Don't assume no action is being taken with regards to the nuclear issue. It wouldn't be covert if everyone knew about. Not that I'm saying there is. As for the Iranians crossing - The Agency is not a border patrol. There is no fence or wall there, and that is a large border.

In addition, the CIA is not autonomous in Iraq. It is not our country. The agencies are operating thousands of miles from their bases in a language and culture not many understand with no real possibility of blending in.

If you want to compare with Israel, let's discuss a hypothetical situation in which the CIA is operating in Canada.

[Roguish Lawyer]

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

If you want to compare with Israel, let's discuss a hypothetical situation in which the CIA is operating in Canada.

LOL

[Warrior-Mentor]

Tied to contractor's poker parties -
hints of bribes & women
BY RICHARD SISK and JAMES GORDON MEEK
DAILY NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU

WASHINGTON - CIA Director Porter Goss abruptly resigned yesterday amid allegations that he and a top aide may have attended Watergate poker parties where bribes and prostitutes were provided to a corrupt congressman.

Kyle (Dusty) Foggo, the No. 3 official at the CIA, could soon be indicted in a widening FBI investigation of the parties thrown by defense contractor Brent Wilkes, named as an unindicted co-conspirator in the bribery conviction of former Rep. Randall (Duke) Cunningham, law enforcement sources said.

A CIA spokeswoman said Foggo went to the lavish weekly hospitality-suite parties at the Watergate and Westin Grand hotels but "just for poker."

Intelligence and law enforcement sources said solid evidence had yet to emerge that Goss also went to the parties, but Goss and Foggo share a fondness for poker and expensive cigars, and the FBI investigation was continuing.

Larry Johnson, a former CIA operative and a Bush administration critic, said Goss "had a relationship with Dusty and with Brent Wilkes that's now coming under greater scrutiny."

Johnson vouched for the integrity of Foggo and Goss but said, "Dusty was a big poker player, and it's my understanding that Porter Goss was also there \[at Wilkes' parties\] for poker. It's going to be guilt by association."

"It's all about the Duke Cunningham scandal," a senior law enforcement official told the Daily News in reference to Goss' resignation. Duke, a California Republican, was sentenced to more than eight years in prison after pleading guilty in November to taking $2.4 million in homes, yachts and other bribes in exchange for steering government contracts.

Goss' inability to handle the allegations swirling around Foggo prompted John Negroponte, the director of National Intelligence, who oversees all of the nation's spy agencies, to press for the CIA chief's ouster, the senior official said. The official said Goss is not an FBI target but "there is an impending indictment" of Foggo for steering defense contracts to his poker buddies.

One subject of the FBI investigation is a $3 million CIA contract that went to Wilkes to supply bottled water and other goods to CIA operatives in Iraq and Afghanistan, sources said.

In a hastily arranged Oval Office announcement that stunned official Washington, neither President Bush nor Goss offered a substantive reason for why the head of the spy agency was leaving after only a year on the job.

"He has led ably" in an era of CIA transition, Bush said with Goss seated at his side. "He has a five-year plan to increase the analysts and operatives."

Goss said the trust Bush placed in him "is something I could never have imagined." "I believe the agency is on a very even keel, sailing well," he said.

The official Bush administration spin that emerged later was that Goss lost out in a turf battle with Negroponte, but Goss' tenure was marked by the resignations of several veteran operatives who viewed him as an amateur out of his depth.

White House officials said Bush would announce early next week his choice to succeed Goss. Air Force Gen. Michael Hayden, Negroponte's top deputy, heads the list of potential replacements, with White House counterterror chief Fran Townsend also on the short list.

Negroponte "apparently had no confidence" in Goss, and Bush's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board was also "very alarmed by problems at the CIA," said a congressional source involved in oversight of U.S. spy agencies.

"Supposedly the \[Cunningham\] scandal was the last straw," the source said. "This administration may be on the verge of a major scandal."

http://www.nydailynews.com/front/sto...p-350961c.html

Withdrawn.

I got to learn how to type faster.

[Danila]

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

1. As you said. You identified very well just a few of the problems with, "Just bop and down there and sign up." Also, there are issues with anybody joining AQ. The information is available.

It is very difficult, of course. But how successful has the CIA -- together with the military's HUMINT resources -- been at recruiting local help? Not necessarily turncoats but local informants as well? This is not a rhetorical question, I simply don't know this. There have apparently been successes but AQ in Iraq does not appear to be slowing down.

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

2. To compare HAMAS with AQ is in my opinion, not valid. HAMAS is a fixed target. Clearly defined limits and limitations. Not really even covert. Iraq is much different. HAMAS could probably be better compared with the IRA in this discussion.

I have to respectfully disagree with that analogy. Hamas is part of the pan-Arab Muslim Brotherhood and receives funding and recruits from multiple Muslim nations, including Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Egypt. Probably Jordan as well, considering the huge Palestinian population there. And even if the point were to be ceded, the IDF and Shabbak must contend with Jihad Islami, PFLP, PRC, Tanzim, Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, and now Zarqawi's Al Qaeda. Recruits -- males and females as young as 16 -- join an organization, receive training in a matter of days or weeks, and are sent off with explosives. This is in addition to the estimated 10,000 to 20,000 permanent "employees" of the terror organizations. It appears something similar is true in Iraq. The command structure of AQ in Iraq appears fairly fixed with identifiable leaders, and recruits for suicide bombings are generally not longtime members but raw recruits.

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

3. Don't assume no action is being taken with regards to the nuclear issue. It wouldn't be covert if everyone knew about. Not that I'm saying there is. AS for the Iranians crossing - The Agency is not a border patrol. There is no fence or wall there, and that is a large border.

I certainly don't assume inaction on proliferation. But I would surmise that Mossad is heavily involved, perhaps more so than the CIA.

Regarding the crossings, I also don't know what could be done specifically. But shouldn't identified Iranian agents be arrested and tried as spies?

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

In addition, the CIA is not autonomous in Iraq. It is not our country. The agencies are operating thousands of miles from their bases in a language and culture not many understand with no real possibility of blending in.

This appears to be the major problem. That's where local informants would come in, I presume, or perhaps vetted members of the IA. But is that really an excuse? This appears to me to be a obstacle that, while surely daunting, is certainly not insurmountable.

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

If you want to compare with Israel, let's discuss a hypothetical situation in which the CIA is operating in Canada.

Shabbak operates in the territories. But Mossad has a long history of successes around the globe, not the least of which being identifying the nuclear reactors in Iraq a couple decades ago. In any case, I made clear that Israel has a great advantage in terms of its proximity with the Palestinians. But the United States enjoy much greater support in Iraq than Israel does in its territories. That, it seems to me, should facilitate the recruitment of useful informants, not obstruct it.

EDIT: I guess the question I'm asking is, what realistic objectives have been or should be set for the CIA and the American intelligence community in general with regards to Al Qaeda in Iraq and Zarqawi's network as a whole? Or with regards to Iranian influence -- both political and terrorist -- in Iraq and throughout the Muslim world? And are the problems standing in the way of realizing the objectives set for our intelligence organizations attributable exclusively to external sources (e.g., impenetrability of terrorist organizations) or to internal ones (e.g., ineffective leadership, lack of adaptability) as well?

[The Reaper]

Danila:

AFAIK, you have no inside knowledge of CIA actions, agents, or operations.

It occurs to me that for someone without that knowledge, you are assuming much. This would be akin to us pronouncing the Mossad as ineffective because we have heard of few successes. In most cases, intel agencies do not boast or their exploits, or even acknowlege them. Frankly, we could probably be doing a better job, but we are still trying to reestablish an agency which was stripped 30 years ago and left to founder from 1992-2000. I will give them the benefit of the doubt and presume that they are doing the best they can.

I will say that one of the biggest foreign intel collectors in the US is the Israeli government. That is public knowledge.

TR

[Danila]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Danila:

AFAIK, you have no inside knowledge of CIA actions, agents, or operations.

It occurs to me that for someone without that knowledge, you are assuming much. This would be akin to us pronouncing the Mossad as ineffective because we have heard of few successes. In most cases, intel agencies do not boast or their exploits, or even acknowlege them. Frankly, we could probably be doing a better job, but we are still trying to reestablish an agency which was stripped 30 years ago and left to founder from 1992-2000. I will give them the benefit of the doubt and presume that they are doing the best they can.

I will say that one of the biggest foreign intel collectors in the US is the Israeli government. That is public knowledge.

TR

Sir,

Admittedly, I know next to nothing specific about the CIA. But the failures here appear to be great and wide-ranging. The two I see as the greatest are:

1. The massive expansion of Zarqawi's network in worldwide reach and operational capabilities.

2. Iran's successful infiltration of Iraq's government and Iranian terrorist influence in Iraq.

The CIA doesn't make public much of what it does. We know, however, what it hasn't done. When the problems facing American foreign policy in the Middle East stem from intelligence failures, is the best the CIA can do good enough? And how much blame should the man in charge of the CIA take?

Dan

[NousDefionsDoc]

I have to respectfully disagree with that analogy. Hamas is part of the pan-Arab Muslim Brotherhood and receives funding and recruits from multiple Muslim nations, including Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and Egypt. Probably Jordan as well, considering the huge Palestinian population there. And even if the point were to be ceded, the IDF and Shabbak must contend with Jihad Islami, PFLP, PRC, Tanzim, Al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, and now Zarqawi's Al Qaeda. Recruits -- males and females as young as 16 -- join an organization, receive training in a matter of days or weeks, and are sent off with explosives. This is in addition to the estimated 10,000 to 20,000 permanent "employees" of the terror organizations. It appears something similar is true in Iraq. The command structure of AQ in Iraq appears fairly fixed with identifiable leaders, and recruits for suicide bombings are generally not longtime members but raw recruits.

Stop whining. Ok fine, Canada as part of the english commonwealth. Happy now?

You assume a lot of shit.

The point is you can't compare working in your own backyard with working half-way around the world. How hard do you think it would be for us to totally fuck up Mexico and Central America if we really wanted to?

If you don't like the way the CIA is run and you think you can do better, go sign up. But don't come on here and criticize them for not showing results in the field.

And just so you'll know, the Mossad ain't all that and a bag of chips and some of us on here know it. You want to start pointing fingers at intel agencies, that shit goes both ways.

The massive expansion of Zarqawi's network in worldwide reach and operational capabilities.

Bullshit.

Iran's successful infiltration of Iraq's government and Iranian terrorist influence in Iraq.

Lib talking points.

[tk27]

Originally Posted by Danila

The CIA doesn't make public much of what it does. We know, however, what it hasn't done. When the problems facing American foreign policy in the Middle East stem from intelligence failures, is the best the CIA can do good enough? And how much blame should the man in charge of the CIA take?

Intelligence is a tool to support decision makers and shooters, it is not a panacea. Director Goss likely left or was forced out for political matters, not as a result of possible failures.

The United States and Israel on balance are a lot alike, but history and locale dictate that Israel focuses its statecraft squarely on physical survival, thereby placing a large emphasis on military and intelligence matters. This often differs from American statecraft. So I disagree with the comparison between the two. The best Mossad/IDF can do, is good enough because Israel lives another day. The best CIA/DoD can do is inhibited by where our priorities lay.

[Pandora]

Originally Posted by NousDefionsDoc

If you want to compare with Israel, let's discuss a hypothetical situation in which the CIA is operating in Canada.

Interesting.

The analogy to the IRA was enlightened.

I would hope the enlightenment extends beyond Montreal where HAMAS is concerned. Likewise AQ?

Without furher commentary, the asessment of our British Commenwealth appears to be apt.