Ebola: "Out of Control in West Africa"

[Go Devil]

Originally Posted by mugwump

To keep things in perspective, about 50,000 people die of seasonal flu each year.

For you preppers out there, this is a fascinating exercise that's unfolding before us. All diseases exist in an ecological and sociological context. We're seeing how the media and the 24-hour news cycle contribute to that context.

I said it before in the panflu thread: cultures can generally hold things together until there are unprocessed bodies in the street. In 1918 there were bodies placed curbside in Boston, Philly, Chicago, etc, but the mortuary carts kept rolling and picked them up. There are bodies rotting in the street in West Africa -- that's what has the WHO spooked.

There's no reason for events to progress to that point in the US -- barring the MSM whipping public perception into a frothing panic.

The numbers that you provided concerning death from the flu each year.....
What is the demographic of the deceaced and common ages?
What is the survivability rate?

[Paslode]

Originally Posted by MAB32

They are also talking about possible charges against Ms. Vinson if she lives.

What a joke......It's the the Obama Administrations fault she has Ebola in the first place......Tom Frieden is guilty of spreading lies and disinformation....if she dies they are guilty of murder.

Originally Posted by PedOncoDoc

Hopefully this wasn't in reference to an inquiry about a previously unnoticed rash on her person.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Go Devil

The numbers that you provided concerning death from the flu each year.....
What is the demographic of the deceaced and common ages?
What is the survivability rate?

This is your assignment for the week. Report back to the class.

[Razor]

Let's review the bidding:

1) Not a lot of research regarding the aerosol transmission of the virus, and CIDRAP is taking a "better safe than sorry" approach (e.g., N95 masks, gloves and eyepro don't cut it)
2) Not a lot of research or scientific certainty on cross species transmission, but has been observed in dogs, pigs and rodents (with some evidence of asymptomatic infection)
3) One supposedly isn't contagious until symptoms present, yet early symptoms are very similar to the flu (and we're entering flu season); a nagging cough and low grade fever can be symptoms
4) The virus can live outside a host on contaminated surfaces for varying times, depending on conditions and what research you choose to endorse
5) Transmission has been shown through experimentation to occur through contact with body fluids up to 7 weeks following patient "recovery"
6) It's a virus; they tend to mutate to adapt to changing environments rather handily

Sounds like there's still a great deal we just don't know about the virus, despite all the reassurances from the talking heads (Sheppard Smith, until you can show me a med school diploma with your name on it, shut the F up).

[PSM]

Originally Posted by mugwump

To keep things in perspective, about 50,000 people die of seasonal flu each year.

How many of those are health care workers who treated them?

Pat

[Paslode]

BREAKING>> Emergency Dallas Commissioners Ct. Meeting Set for tomorrow at 2pm to declare Local State of Disaster

https://twitter.com/MeredithNBC5/sta...41395899609088

While the message from the President is 'keep calm and avoid bodily fluids', it appears the commissioners in Dallas are slightly more concerned at the potential for Ebola to escalate:

*DALLAS COMMISSIONERS TO DECLARE LOCAL STATE OF DISASTER TOMORROW: NBC-TV
*DALLAS COUNTY CONSIDERS DECLARING STATE OF DISASTER FROM EBOLA
*DALLAS DISASTER DECLARATION WOULD ACTIVATE EMERGENCY PLAN

While we are not sure where a "state of disaster" ranks relative to a "public health emergency" such as the one in Connecticut, we are certain of one thing - it will mean civil liberties will be reduced as government takes control.

BREAKING>> Emergency Dallas Commissioners Ct. Meeting Set for tomorr

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...er-ebola-fears

[Go Devil]

Originally Posted by mugwump

This is your assignment for the week. Report back to the class.

Based upon my readings from the CDC, comparing the flu to Ebola is an off the cuff comparison as in "Apples to Oranges", and I believe that you understand this.

Over a 30 year period, mortality rates range from 3 - 40 thousand with the flu exacerbating existing conditions such as heart and respiratory disease. The aged and children being the primary victims.

http://m.cdc.gov/en/HealthSafetyTopi...About/keyFacts

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease...bile=nocontent

Ebola doesn't kill it's host by preying on existing physical conditions or ailments.
Ebola's victims cover the spectrum of age.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

Just want to make sure I am not misunderstanding something, but how can an event have an effect disproportionate to its true risk? Wouldn't it's "true risk" be the disproportionate effect itself?

Things could change, but right now the risk of you or me or any average Joe catching Ebola appears minuscule. But if the markets crash there will be a lot of misery out there. If people stop traveling there will be a lot of people out of jobs. If everyone is consumed by this issue when there are other serious issues being ignored, it could have serious consequences. If healthcare workers stay home in droves then a lot of sick folk are going to die who might otherwise have lived. That's what I mean by an effect disproportionate to its true risk. Large consequences from a small risk.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Go Devil

Based upon my readings from the CDC, comparing the flu to Ebola is an off the cuff comparison as in "Apples to Oranges", and I believe that you understand this.

Over a 30 year period, mortality rates range from 3 - 40 thousand with the flu exacerbating existing conditions such as heart and respiratory disease. The aged and children being the primary victims.

http://m.cdc.gov/en/HealthSafetyTopi...About/keyFacts

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease...bile=nocontent

Ebola doesn't kill it's host by preying on existing physical conditions or ailments.
Ebola's victims cover the spectrum of age.

Over the last five years flu mortality averaged about 36k in the US, with most epidemiologists thinking it's under reported by 100-200%. I'd wager a mortgage payment that 50k is closer to reality than 3k. I'll also bet you that more healthy young adults, 18-35 years old, without a single co-morbidity factor, die of flu in 2014 than die of Ebola in the same cohort. Influenza is the scariest disease on the planet. If the wrong one breaks out it could end civilization.

Ebola is also a scary disease and the public health agencies have bungled things badly. But unless the attack rate changes pretty drastically this just doesn't seem to be a major threat. We'll know more in the next few weeks. But if the symptomatic "second nurse" who flew to Kent state and back only spawns two new infections, or less, then this disease is going to burn out in the US. My opinion only.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Broadsword2004

Ahhh, okay, I see now. Basically a mountain out of a molehill.

Ha. Yes. Never use a two dollar word when a fifty-center will do.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Over the last five years flu mortality averaged about 36k in the US, with most epidemiologists thinking it's under reported by 100-200%. I'd wager a mortgage payment that 50k is closer to reality than 3k. I'll also bet you that more healthy young adults, 18-35 years old, without a single co-morbidity factor, die of flu in 2014 than die of Ebola in the same cohort. Influenza is the scariest disease on the planet. If the wrong one breaks out it could end civilization.

Ebola is also a scary disease and the public health agencies have bungled things badly. But unless the attack rate changes pretty drastically this just doesn't seem to be a major threat. We'll know more in the next few weeks. But if the symptomatic "second nurse" who flew to Kent state and back only spawns two new infections, or less, then this disease is going to burn out in the US. My opinion only.

That assumes that the government somehow keeps additional Ebola carriers from arriving here in the US, correct?

How do you think they will accomplish that?

TR

[LarryW]

Originally Posted by mugwump

If everyone is consumed by this issue when there are other serious issues being ignored, it could have serious consequences. If healthcare workers stay home in droves then a lot of sick folk are going to die who might otherwise have lived. That's what I mean by an effect disproportionate to its true risk. Large consequences from a small risk.

You're right. Guess our Government needs to get its head out of its ass and start managing emergency responses instead of waiting until after the situation is turning to crap. "Prior planning prevents, etc, etc..."

What we've seen to date out of CDC and our Dear Leader for Life reeks of the roll out of Obamacare. "Nothing new, here. Same old shit. Move along. Period."

(For cryin' out loud!)

[Pete]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Over the last five years flu mortality averaged about 36k in the US, with most epidemiologists thinking it's under reported by 100-200%. I'd wager a mortgage payment that 50k is closer to reality than 3k. I'll also bet you that more healthy young adults, 18-35 years old, without a single co-morbidity factor, die of flu in 2014 than die of Ebola in the same cohort. ....

Hey Mugwump;

I did a fast search and could only find the stats where they lumped the 18 - 65 people into the adult category and that it was up last flue season from 47% to 61%.

You have any stats on death rates from flue broken down by like 1 - 18, 19 - 35, 36 - 65 and older than 65?

[BryanK]

I'm just hoping that this thing doesn't go much further than it already has. The nurse diddly-bopping into Cleveland knowing full well she just aided in the direct treatment of an Ebola patient, was indeed a dumb ass move. Wedding or not, she should have stayed her ass home just in case. That's what Skype is for.

[Go Devil]

Maybe the TSA can reprogram their body scanners to check for body temperature as well as pathogen?!!