Where's Bin Ladin?

**The Reaper** · 07-07-2007, 08:49

My vote is that first he was hiding, now he is dead.

I believe that the last confirmed contact with him was April of 2003, when an arrested al-Qaeda leader, Tawfiq bin Attash, disclosed having met him in the Khost province of Afghanistan three months earlier. Where is he now? I believe in an unmarked grave.

Anyone have any indication or sign of him that can be confirmed since then? That is a personal live sighting, not a recycled old videotape or statement on his behalf by al-Zawahiri.

Why would he not have made a statement or appearance in over four years if he were still alive? Al-Zawahiri has made plenty.

Thoughts?

TR

rubberneck · 07-07-2007, 09:21

I obviously don't know for sure, but I find it very interesting that we never hear from him. It is always number 2's mug on those propaganda video's. Where is the big guy?

IMHO he is dead and neither side waill admit it. AQ would lose a powerful icon that brings them a ton of "street cred", and our government, after being burned at the stake for relying on faulty intel, will not announce that he is dead until they confirm his remains through DNA.

JMI · 07-07-2007, 09:27

I was reading the article of Zawahiri's latest video, and they kept referring to him as the #2 member of AQ. I kept thinking #2? Where's #1? I think he is dead simply because of the silence.

x-factor · 07-07-2007, 10:35

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

In American electoral politics we have the tradition of "VP as hatchetman" meaning on the campaign trail the Presidential candidate sticks to a rosey positive message while the VP goes hard negative on the other candidate (Eisenhower-Nixon was the quintessential example of this). I think what AQ is doing is kind of the same thing. Most of what Zawahiri does these days is talk trash (and equivocate about the battlefield pastings they're taking) on Iraq and Afghanistan and criticize other Muslims (he loves to scold Hamas) for not carrying out jihad in an "appropriate manner".

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.

Trip_Wire (RIP) · 07-07-2007, 12:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by x-factor

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

In American electoral politics we have the tradition of "VP as hatchetman" meaning on the campaign trail the Presidential candidate sticks to a rosey positive message while the VP goes hard negative on the other candidate (Eisenhower-Nixon was the quintessential example of this). I think what AQ is doing is kind of the same thing. Most of what Zawahiri does these days is talk trash (and equivocate about the battlefield pastings they're taking) on Iraq and Afghanistan and criticize other Muslims (he loves to scold Hamas) for not carrying out jihad in an "appropriate manner".

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.

I tend to agree with your thought train here. I wish the 'SOB ' was dead and buried in a Pig's skin somewhere ... but I doubt he's dead.

JMI · 07-07-2007, 12:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by x-factor

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.

Can you tell me the last time you saw him on Video? And if they do not have any victories to crow about, isn't now the time for OBL to "gather the flock?"
Every month? What has it been, 40+ months?

x-factor · 07-07-2007, 12:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMI

Can you tell me the last time you saw him on Video?

If I'm not mistaken, his last video was June 2006. It was 19 minutes commenting on the death of Zarqawi. "The banner of Islam will be passed to another lion" or something like that.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/middle_east/5131818.stm

Quote:

And if they do not have any victories to crow about, isn't now the time for OBL to "gather the flock?"

No battlefield victories, by that I mean no cases where they can say they stood and fought Americans and won (by any measure).

They must certainly view the disunified state of American politics and the general negative impression of Iraq as a strategic victory. He's probably waiting to see how the surge and the American election process play out too.

Quote:

What has it been, 40+ months?

13, see above.

Five-O · 07-07-2007, 14:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by x-factor

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

In American electoral politics we have the tradition of "VP as hatchetman" meaning on the campaign trail the Presidential candidate sticks to a rosey positive message while the VP goes hard negative on the other candidate (Eisenhower-Nixon was the quintessential example of this). I think what AQ is doing is kind of the same thing. Most of what Zawahiri does these days is talk trash (and equivocate about the battlefield pastings they're taking) on Iraq and Afghanistan and criticize other Muslims (he loves to scold Hamas) for not carrying out jihad in an "appropriate manner".

They take a longer view of the conflict and they want to preserve UBL as a larger-than-life "unifying symbol of victory for all Muslims" and to do that they can't be trotting him out every month to take out the garbage. If there's a spectacular attack or somekind of battlefield "success" for AQ, then I think you'll see UBL again.

My .02c,

Understand the above train of thought but I think it is "over thinking" the issue. While the news media does not mention it....we kick the crap out of AQ every bloody day. The American public does not know this but AQ sure as hell does. Given that the The Arab culture is so very patriarchal and so focused on the father figure, it would seem highly unlikely that UBL would not have made an attempt to rally the true believers to the cause and urge on the terrorist cowards. Couple that with a deteriorating renal condition, his inability (assumed) to seek proper medical care and the intense pressure we are putting on him...to me it adds up to UBL is dead. If you have never seen a renal patient...most needing dialysis are extremely sick people.

The Dave · 07-07-2007, 14:33

I'm going with the dead option. With the dialysis and unlikelihood that he's getting the treatment he would need, that alone leads to me to think he's muerte. On top of that, his lack of any apppearances on video.

Ranger Luna · 07-08-2007, 12:34

He's working at a local liquor store here in Ca.

MardiGras · 10-22-2007, 16:54

Bin Ladin maybe dead. But then again that may be exactly what he wants us to think. He is definitely laying low and either living in a cave or buried in one. IMHO, it really does not matter. What does matter is the fact that these radical zealots who follow him are still out there and still looking to put a bulls eye on Uncle Sam's back. IMHO it is far more important to take apart his organizational infrastructure and disrupt his ability to plan and execute attacks than it is to capture him personally. Why? Because IMHO there will always be some nutjob, crackpot, who wants to impress the almighty with how well he can kill "infidels" (ie..you and me) on his behalf looking to become the leader. So if Bin Ladin gets bumped off it will not be too long before a new guy pops up with a video proclaiming he is jihadist numo uno. Don't get me wrong nothing would make me happier than seeing that SOB taken out, but I am just as anxious to see his followers laid low permanently.

rubberneck · 07-07-2007, 15:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by x-factor

If he were dead, there'd be no way for AQ to contain the news or the infighting. I think he hasn't been on TV because AQ has not had any substantial victories to crow about and they don't want UBL's imaged mired in the day-to-day stuff.

The last known video tape showing OBL was released on October 29th 2004 just a few weeks prior to our general elections. Since then AQ has pulled off two rather large mass murders in Bali (10/1/05) and London (7/7/05). To say that AQ has had no big victories to crow about since the last known video tape is flat out wrong.

x-factor · 07-07-2007, 15:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by rubberneck

The last known video tape showing OBL was released on October 29th 2004 just a few weeks prior to our general elections. Since then AQ has pulled off two rather large mass murders in Bali (10/1/05) and London (7/7/05). To say that AQ has had no big victories to crow about since the last known video tape is flat out wrong.

Which would explain why there were four Bin Laden audio statements in early 2006 when they had momentum, but none since Zarqawi's death.

Your argument only works if you believe the audiostatements are not actually UBL. That is not unthinkable, but I disagree.

82ndtrooper · 07-07-2007, 10:39

If his kidney's didn't finally give out, expecially without dialysis, then He's been killed and in an unmarked grave as TR mentions.

It's interesting though how "quite" those that are captured, and may know have been about his where abouts or death.

Just when we discontinued "water boarding" ..............or not ?

lksteve · 07-07-2007, 10:56

toes up in a cave somewhere...