Wuhan Coronavirus

[mugwump]

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....07.20021154v1

[echoes]

Originally Posted by InTheBlack

So Emetrol is nothing more than a flat Coke !!! Well, I haven't check the P content... is that a critical ratio of ingredients? Why is it effective?

https://healthjade.com/emetrol/
>
Emetrol is a phosphorated carbohydrate (sugar) solution used for the relief of upset stomach associated with nausea due to overindulgence in food and drink. Emetrol active ingredients in each 5 mL are: 1.87 g Dextrose (glucose) + 1.87 g Levulose (fructose) + 21.5 mg Phosphoric acid

Inactive ingredients: FD&C red no. 40, flavors, glycerin, methylparaben, and purified water.
>

Interesting analysis. Obviously I am no doctor, it is just what works for our family, and has for decades. Funny too because we are a household that does not drink sodas of any kind.

I did check with my doc this morning though, and he gave the all clear for Emetrol use.


JMHO, back to the discussion...


Holly

[mugwump]

Largest study to date from China CDC of first 4021 laboratory confirmed cases w/ #2019nCoV #COVID19 from 30 provinces. Preprint, undergoing peer review now.

R0 ~3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05)

Case fatality rates (CFR) ~3.06% with significant gender difference
- Male 4.45%
- Female 1.25%

Case fatality rates (CFR) difference between age groups are even more pronounced than gender:

<60 y 1.43%
≥ 60 y 5.30%

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....10.20021675v1

I urge everyone to start identifying as a 22 yo female. Immediately.

[mugwump]

Why I think you shouldn’t count on a vaccine or pharmacological therapy...no time.

The projection below assumes no effective non-pharmacological measures (i.e. whatever they're doing in China, and ultimately here, won’t work), a Ro of 2.5 (which is low in light of current US and Chinese studies) and no significant drop in cases during warm weather (which seems possible from surface infectivity studies).

Note we're way ahead of this “worst case” projection now, probably because their Ro assumption is low/wrong. And note the staggering growth near the bottom of the chart...exponential growth is an absolute bitch.

Prepare to isolate. Don’t assume you'll get water when you turn on the tap. Or power. Or grocery deliveries. If the bottom of the chart comes true it’s going to get Old Testament biblical for a period of time. We may lose an entire crop. Remember the chain for getting seeds in the ground and harvested: functioning financial systems, power, fertilizer/insecticide/herbicide synthesis, transport, fuel delivery, spare parts, healthy farmers. And this is coming on the heels of one of the worst harvests since the Great Depression.

Supply chain disruption could cause more deaths than the virus.

Pray the chart is wrong.


09E5EC0F-CB91-41F8-AE42-CCF3EF9307E5.jpg

[PedOncoDoc]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Why I think you shouldn’t count on a vaccine or pharmacological therapy...no time.

The projection below assumes no effective non-pharmacological measures (i.e. whatever they're doing in China, and ultimately here, won’t work), a Ro of 2.5 (which is low in light of current US and Chinese studies) and no significant drop in cases during warm weather (which seems possible from surface infectivity studies).

Note we're way ahead of this “worst case” projection now, probably because their Ro assumption is low/wrong. And note the staggering growth near the bottom of the chart...exponential growth is an absolute bitch.

Prepare to isolate. Don’t assume you'll get water when you turn on the tap. Or power. Or grocery deliveries. If the bottom of the chart comes true it’s going to get Old Testament biblical for a period of time. We may lose an entire crop. Remember the chain for getting seeds in the ground and harvested: functioning financial systems, power, fertilizer/insecticide/herbicide synthesis, transport, fuel delivery, spare parts, healthy farmers. And this is coming on the heels of one of the worst harvests since the Great Depression.

Supply chain disruption could cause more deaths than the virus.

Pray the chart is wrong.


Attachment 36206

Time will tell with regards to this outbreak - they cast similar predictions with other viral outbreaks starting in China over the past 20 years. Necessity may lead to some care breakthroughs if things continue to escalate.

What I'm most worried about is those "Cum Infections" they mention in that chart. - those working girls are going to have to be extra careful!

[Surf n Turf]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Hope I’m wrong but the consensus I’m hearing is 18 months until there’s a legit vaccine, manufactured in sufficient quantity to be useful.

The only guys with the production capacity and know how to spin up vaccine in quantity are Glaxo, Merck, and Sanofi. . And then who gets the vaccine first from a Brit company? Or Sanofi in France? Hope Merck's involved.

Mugwump,

Looks like funding and participation are not going to be a problem this time

Hate to use NPR as a source for anything…..but this was the only place I could find the current players.

Also noted, they replaced previous “The previous day, the People’s Liberation Army Daily reported that Chen Wei, China’s top expert in biological warfare, has been leading the efforts to overcome the deadly, pneumonia-like pathogen for the last nine days.”

I wonder if CEPI is a division of DARPA

SnT

(From the middle of the Article)

Both Chappell's team in Australia and Weiner's team in Philadelphia, in collaboration with the pharmaceutical company Inovio, are getting financial support from a fairly new organization called CEPI, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. CEPI is a global partnership of public, private and philanthropic organizations; it's also supporting efforts at the biotech companies Moderna and CureVac.

Among other vaccine efforts worldwide, the pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson is working on a vaccine, and GSK has also offered to help new vaccine efforts. Researchers at Imperial College London have developed a vaccine that's already being tested in animals, and vaccine efforts are also reportedly underway in China.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...aybe-this-fall

[EricV]

Originally Posted by Surf n Turf

Mugwump,

Looks like funding and participation are not going to be a problem this time

Hate to use NPR as a source for anything…..but this was the only place I could find the current players.

Also noted, they replaced previous “The previous day, the People’s Liberation Army Daily reported that Chen Wei, China’s top expert in biological warfare, has been leading the efforts to overcome the deadly, pneumonia-like pathogen for the last nine days.”

I wonder if CEPI is a division of DARPA

SnT

(From the middle of the Article)

Both Chappell's team in Australia and Weiner's team in Philadelphia, in collaboration with the pharmaceutical company Inovio, are getting financial support from a fairly new organization called CEPI, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. CEPI is a global partnership of public, private and philanthropic organizations; it's also supporting efforts at the biotech companies Moderna and CureVac.

Among other vaccine efforts worldwide, the pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson is working on a vaccine, and GSK has also offered to help new vaccine efforts. Researchers at Imperial College London have developed a vaccine that's already being tested in animals, and vaccine efforts are also reportedly underway in China.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-...aybe-this-fall

Sounds great. Sounds like we have Top People on it, Top People!! Course, if Mugwump's chart is correct, most of us will be dead.

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by mugwump

The projection below assumes no effective non-pharmacological measures (i.e. whatever they're doing in China, and ultimately here, won’t work), a Ro of 2.5 (which is low in light of current US and Chinese studies) and no significant drop in cases during warm weather (which seems possible from surface infectivity studies).

Attachment 36206

The chart does not factor in reduction in rate of increase due to proactive social distancing.

What exactly is the material used to make surgical masks? Wonder if a field expedient would be to use gauze pads which have that woven blue non-stick layer ? Or just the blue woven fabric that is used on beds to keep the patient from touching the sheets directly, and to catch spills? What is that stuff called?

EDIT: followup comment by creator of that chart (dated 27JAN20):
Beyond China
Matt Sterett Feb 10
The model’s early forecasts were, in fact, conservative.
***We actually underestimated the near-term risk***
By a factor of 6x.
Reported figures now tally at >40k infections.
Now, back to our critics.

https://reservereport.substack.com/?no_cover=true

the spreadsheet itself, you can modify presumptions:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=2146925776

[InTheBlack]

Someone should modify that spreadsheet so you can change the R0 for every row (weekly) -- that would account for social distancing measures.

Figuring out a "good" number for how much quarantines etc reduce R0 might be difficult, or maybe not if data can be analyzed from measles, polio, Ebola, etc outbreaks.

[InTheBlack]

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/...ong-scientists

The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital worked with the Science Park to devise the do-it-yourself method
...

Joe Fan King-man, the institution’s assistant hospital chief executive, said the home-made masks had undergone laboratory tests by City University and were proven to have achieved 80 to 90 per cent of the function of regular surgical masks in terms of their filtration of aerosol and droplets.

How to make your own masks and protective shield at home.

Required items: kitchen roll, strong tissue paper, elastic bands, a hole punch, paper tape, scissors, plastic-coated steel wire, a pair of glasses, plastic file folders and binder clips.

Preparation:
For the mask:
Wash your hands thoroughly with soap and clean your items
Put one piece of kitchen roll, with proper hygiene certification, on top of another
Place a piece of tissue paper, which will act as the bottom layer of the mask, on top of the two pieces of kitchen roll
Cut the stack of paper into two
Use the paper tape to seal off the two sides of the mask
Make two holes at each sealed side with the punch
Attach the metallic wire with paper tape to the top edge of the mask to make the nose bridge wire
Tie four rubber bands through the holes on the mask’s sides

For the protective shield:
Cut the file folder into two pieces
Attach one piece on the edge of the glasses with binder clips
The shield can be reused after disinfection for each usage
Note: The hospital said other materials such as cling film, air conditioner filter paper, and cotton cloth were not suitable for making the masks.

[InTheBlack]

Can you use Denatured Ethyl Alcohol for skin disinfection, or will the denaturants penetrate the skin & be toxic?

EDIT: obviously methanol is toxic, but I'm seeing other denaturants listed instead:

I see there are several chemicals that can be used as denaturants.
2-propanol, 2-methyl (CAS 75-65-0)
tert-Butyl alcohol
denatonium Benzoate (CAS 3734-33-6) as a bitterant.

and probably others.

EDIT: this is good info but I'm still wondering about the amount used:

https://thedermreview.com/alcohol-denat/

Safety

The Cosmetic Ingredient Review Expert Panel (CIR) concluded that safety of ingredients containing denatured alcohol should be predicated on the safety of the denaturants used since dermal application or inhalation of cosmetic products containing these ingredients will not produce significant systemic exposure to ethanol. The Panel considered that the adverse effects known to be associated with alcohol ingestion do not suggest a concern for Alcohol Denat. or SD Alcohols because of the presence of the denaturants.

The safety of the alcohol denaturants Denatonium Benzoate, t-Butyl Alcohol, Diethyl Phthalate, and Methyl Alcohol were reviewed by the CIR Expert Panel in 2008 and found to be safe as used.

Despite the approval of denatured alcohol by the CIR Expert Panel, the safety of this ingredient in skin care products is controversial. When high concentrations of denatured alcohol are used in the formulation of skin care products, this ingredient can cause drying and irritation.

Denatured alcohol can also cause erosion of the skin’s surface layer, leading to a weakened skin barrier. However, according to FutureDerm, if lower concentrations of denatured alcohol are used, this ingredient may simply be acting as a degreasing agent, making for a better texture of the skin care formulation.

Ultimately the safety of Alcohol Denat. in cosmetics and personal care products depends on both the type of denaturant and also the concentration that is used to create the formulation.

References: Cosmetics Info, “Alcohol Denat”, Wikipedia, “Denatured Alcohol”, The Naked Chemist, “Astringent products, their role on the skin”, 2015, Paula’s Choice, “Alcohol in Skincare: The Facts”, Int J Toxicol. 2008;27 Suppl 1:1-43, FutureDerm, “The Most Misunderstood Skincare Ingredient: Alcohol”, 2007.

[The Reaper]

I thought the goal was an N95 mask, not a surgical mask.

TR

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

I thought the goal was an N95 mask, not a surgical mask.

TR

Exactly. Surgical masks limit spread, N95 mitigates spread and offers limited protection to the wearer if worn properly

[EricV]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Exactly. Surgical masks limit spread, N95 mitigates spread and offers limited protection to the wearer if worn properly

It shows the system is running out of masks and/or breaking down... no N95 masks available.


This is war. The #wuhan gov announced today all residential complexes will be sealed up. People need to get permission to exit. My mom told me there’s only one food market in our complex, and she couldn’t even get flour. #coronavirus

My aunt’s parents-in-law are in their 80s and my uncle sends 3 meals to them every day. They don’t live in the same complex. Now that the gates are sealed, they can only rely on the community volunteers, who are swamped with other tasks, for food supplies.

My youngest uncle, a middle school PE teacher and Communist Party member, has been sent to work at a remote residential compound as a security guard. It’s a 7-day shift and no masks were provided.


https://twitter.com/xinyanyu/status/...777962496?s=21

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by EricV

It shows the system is running out of masks and/or breaking down... no N95 masks available.

This is war...

https://twitter.com/xinyanyu/status/...777962496?s=21

Well, yeah, that’s what happens in a pandemic. Supply chains, poof. If you read about plagues it’s the follow-on stuff that really kills people. Famine. Political upheaval. War.

That’s why I wonder about getting a crop in and feeding 1.6B people when there’s also swine fever and avian flu just ripping through their ag system.