Wuhan Coronavirus

[Old Dog New Trick]

Here’s a question for all you mathematicians on here.

According to the CDC/WHO how many people get influenza (of some known type) worldwide?

According to the CDC/WHO how many people die from influenza worldwide?

According to the CDC/WHO how many people worldwide see a doctor, go to a healthcare professional and get tested for influenza, and how many of those tests are reported to the CDC/WHO?

How many more people self medicate with OTC drugs or home remedies, actually have the flu and get better in under five days and infect their workplace, classmates and communities on a daily, weekly, monthly basis without anyone actually reporting their illness to the CDC/WHO?

Just asking for a friend.

P.S. I’m trying to imagine how many more people were either infected with COVID-19 or just exposed from the few carriers (hosts) that have returned from a source of this virus? What was the method of community transmission in the Life Care Center? Was it one to one or a single group function? I hope they are getting those questions asked and answered.

[T-Rock]

It ain't Influenza. Although I'm not a mathematician, just a "common Joe health care worker," your friend should probably know that out of the reported cases known, 2 - even up to 10 times the amount of those cases went unreported, which would change the numbers significantly into our favor, meaning less CFR's. That's probably what'll change when the numbers come out next year, exponentially, and everyone will be like, WOW, that whole SARsCov-2 thing was overblown (JMHO). Lol. This will probably be a little worse than the 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic, but even then, during that whole time frame the whole thing was hyped up and overblown. I've resigned myself that I've had a fruitful life and eventually we can't defeat age and gravity. May as well help everyone we can, and contribute to the betterment of society, right? Came to that conclusion last weekend when I participated in the treatment of a patient who was on one of the notorious "Princess Cruise Lines." It's here, we just gotta deal with it rationally. (I'm symptom free BTW).

[Mustang Man]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

Here’s a question for all you mathematicians on here.

According to the CDC/WHO how many people get influenza (of some known type) worldwide?

According to the CDC/WHO how many people die from influenza worldwide?

According to the CDC/WHO how many people worldwide see a doctor, go to a healthcare professional and get tested for influenza, and how many of those tests are reported to the CDC/WHO?

How many more people self medicate with OTC drugs or home remedies, actually have the flu and get better in under five days and infect their workplace, classmates and communities on a daily, weekly, monthly basis without anyone actually reporting their illness to the CDC/WHO?

Just asking for a friend.

P.S. I’m trying to imagine how many more people were either infected with COVID-19 or just exposed from the few carriers (hosts) that have returned from a source of this virus? What was the method of community transmission in the Life Care Center? Was it one to one or a single group function? I hope they are getting those questions asked and answered.

I can somewhat answer some of what you're asking. From a number of sources I've gathered 40% - 70% of global population will get this virus. The WHO just announced the mortality rate of COVID-19 being 3.4%, the seasonal flu in the U.S. is 0.1%. Let's round the mortality rate to 4% on account of China's shady numbers and let's be conservative and say 40% of the world gets this virus. If the infection rates continue we're looking at about 120 million dead world wide.

40-70 percent infection
https://thehill.com/changing-america...-preparing-for

3.4 percent mortality rate
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-1...it-should-drop

Seasonal flu mortality rate in the U.S.
https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Mustang Man

I can somewhat answer some of what you're asking. From a number of sources I've gathered 40% - 70% of global population will get this virus. The WHO just announced the mortality rate of COVID-19 being 3.4%, the seasonal flu in the U.S. is 0.1%. Let's round the mortality rate to 4% on account of China's shady numbers and let's be conservative and say 40% of the world gets this virus. If the infection rates continue we're looking at about 120 million dead world wide.

40-70 percent infection
https://thehill.com/changing-america...-preparing-for

3.4 percent mortality rate
https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-1...it-should-drop

Seasonal flu mortality rate in the U.S.
https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...-with-flu.html

Random points:

Lipsitch walked back the 40-70% number, now says 40% max. He's tweeted the new numbers but no one seems interested in publishing a retraction, it ruins the “Trump/Pence are idiots, listen to the scientists” narrative.

Korean CFR is more like 0.6%, or six times worse than seasonal flu, and nowhere like 3.4%. Korea has gold-standard testing and a first world medical system. They have drive-through free testing with results texted to cellphones in 10 minutes. Their CFR denominator is considered reliable.

The WHO number of 3.4% CFR will likely be correct, possibly low, in places like Iran, India, and Africa. I’d expect a CFR OF <=1% in the US, or ten times worse than seasonal flu.

A 40% attack rate with 1% CFR will overwhelm the US healthcare system. No country can afford excess ICU beds and staff for “surge capacity” and Democrat statements otherwise are pure politics. That said, having 1% stockpile of necessary PPE for a moderate pandemic is governmental malpractice.

Nursing home death rates should not be extrapolated to the general population. It can be 20% with seasonal flu.

It’s going to be bad, but not Spanish flu bad, at least from what we’re seeing now.

[mugwump]

My daughter reports today that she still has to get testing approval from the director of infectious disease and they’re still being stingy.

She now has two ER doctor friends at home very ill with respiratory disease and negative flu titers. Neither tested for covid.

So much for my theory that they’d take good care of medical staff.

[EricV]

Looks like we'll have a collapsing medical system in another few weeks.

Here's an interesting take...

https://twitter.com/clarewenham/stat...46249681657857

[Old Dog New Trick]

You guys aren’t answering my questions, just regurgitating what’s recently being said. Said mostly by the “experts - speculating without facts” which is nothing more than a “Wild Ass Guess” which is what they are doing with COVID-19, making WAGs and assumptions based on different circumstances worldwide. You see, we really don’t know what happened in China (again speculation and assumptions based on hearsay and misinformation) and the Diamond Princess was a disaster! But even from that “Petri dish” only a small handful of people have died. Many not receiving more than symptomatic care, common remedies and recovering with rest.

Here, I’ll help you out with the influenza questions (these aren’t exact numbers but wildly known facts about influenza.) It is suspected that between 40 to 50 million ‘Americans’ get the flu every year and of that 16 to 34 thousand die from it every year in ‘America.’ And that’s just what’s reported for statistics. What if half the American population (170 million people) actually gets infected with the flu but self medicate and don’t report their illness to any ‘record keeper?’ Your 0.1% mortality rate gets skewed, doesn’t it? Almost enough so that we can continue to freak out over motor vehicle and gun deaths each year, but I digress. What is the world population percentage of influenza morbidity v. mortality and are certain places more likely to have a higher mortality rate than others? My guess is yes, we just don’t follow it unless it’s something new, like SARS, MERS, or something with a catchy name - Novel Coronavirus. Right now there is a worldwide issue with Dengue Fever but you wouldn’t know it from the news. Thankfully most people recover from it. Remember Zika?

Remember, some, if not all sources are biased of their own medical opinion or political bias (depends on which sideline you stand and what financial backers you receive support from - don’t cut the hand that feeds you. Or, “Don’t pick a fight with the President.”) It’s far too early to tell what kind of global death rate will be attributable to COVID-19 based on the known and unknown numbers of suspected cases of infected people. Right now the experts are guessing for whatever reasons they have (self aggrandizement or political ideology.) Most have caused panic and fear than calm and rational responses so far. I suspect that >~<50% of the elderly hospice patients in Washington will die from this but we will learn much from their sacrifice.

[mugwump]

I'm convinced that part of the "Trump sucks" narrative--harping on him for 'failed' covid response--is a desperate attempt at distraction by the scientific community.

The "only trust the scientists" narrative is ridiculous. Those ivory tower researchers are hip-deep complicit in the release of this virus.

There are many more, and I assume even nastier, biologic agents just one slip away from release. The H5N1 virus, modified to add the last two minor mutations needed for full pandemic potential, could wipe out 20%-30% of the world population.

This 'pathogen enhancement' research has to stop. Immediately.

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by mugwump

I'm convinced that part of the "Trump sucks"narrative --harping on him for 'failed' covid response--is a desperate attempt at distraction by the scientific community.

The "only trust the scientists" narrative is ridiculous. Those ivory tower researchers are hip-deep complicit in the release of this virus.

Well,, it is not getting better.

A county-level swamp critter in Washington State publically told everybody to stay home.

Washington county recommends all 2.2M residents to work from home, tells over 60's to stay indoors
https://www.foxnews.com/us/washingto...work-from-home

What's Up Next??:

Costco, McDonald's, KFC and other food sources close for the protection of their values employees.

NYC and LA permanently close US Customs warehouses pending complete incineration of all Fur'n Food in bio-isolation containment efforts.


How to start worldwide panic without really trying.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Old Dog New Trick

You guys aren’t answering my questions, just regurgitating what’s recently being said. Said mostly by the “experts - speculating without facts” which is nothing more than a “Wild Ass Guess” which is what they are doing with COVID-19, making WAGs and assumptions based on different circumstances worldwide. You see, we really don’t know what happened in China (again speculation and assumptions based on hearsay and misinformation) and the Diamond Princess was a disaster! But even from that “Petri dish” only a small handful of people have died. Many not receiving more than symptomatic care, common remedies and recovering with rest.

Here, I’ll help you out with the influenza questions (these aren’t exact numbers but wildly known facts about influenza.) It is suspected that between 40 to 50 million ‘Americans’ get the flu every year and of that 16 to 34 thousand die from it every year in ‘America.’ And that’s just what’s reported for statistics. What if half the American population (170 million people) actually gets infected with the flu but self medicate and don’t report their illness to any ‘record keeper?’ Your 0.1% mortality rate gets skewed, doesn’t it? Almost enough so that we can continue to freak out over motor vehicle and gun deaths each year, but I digress. What is the world population percentage of influenza morbidity v. mortality and are certain places more likely to have a higher mortality rate than others? My guess is yes, we just don’t follow it unless it’s something new, like SARS, MERS, or something with a catchy name - Novel Coronavirus. Right now there is a worldwide issue with Dengue Fever but you wouldn’t know it from the news. Thankfully most people recover from it. Remember Zika?

Remember, some, if not all sources are biased of their own medical opinion or political bias (depends on which sideline you stand and what financial backers you receive support from - don’t cut the hand that feeds you. Or, “Don’t pick a fight with the President.”) It’s far too early to tell what kind of global death rate will be attributable to COVID-19 based on the known and unknown numbers of suspected cases of infected people. Right now the experts are guessing for whatever reasons they have (self aggrandizement or political ideology.) Most have caused panic and fear than calm and rational responses so far. I suspect that >~<50% of the elderly hospice patients in Washington will die from this but we will learn much from their sacrifice.

I agree this isn't going to be the end of the world but it is going to be very significant. I think it's wrong to dismiss the entire scientific community as partisan hacks, because that's what you've done above. Many are on the front lines, like my daughter, and they're desperately trying to plan for this. It's glib to imply these people don't care about their patients and communities and are presenting estimates based upon their political biases.

Every time I see someone equate covid to seasonal flu, I ask myself "Why did the Chinese crash their economy?" Because they DID crash it with potentially fatal consequences for the CCP regime. Why would they risk their Silk Road initiative, their South Seas power grab, and their 2025 tech dominance goals? Because they've risked all of those with their aggressive containment strategy and the subsequent massive hit on businesses, many which aren't expected to survive.

Riddle me this: Someone with seasonal flu gets on a cruise ship in Hong Kong. How many infections would you expect to be produced from that one patient? The answer is six. Over 700 on that ship came down with covid.

How many deaths would you expect if it was the flu? Zero. There are six covid deaths to date and over 20 remain in serious/critical condition, many on ventilator support. Most, as you say, just had the sniffles.

In seasonal flu, 19% are asymptomatic and are considered non-infectious. With covid that percentage is assumed much higher (still unknown, but I hope it's true) and they are infectious. Some are highly infectious--the so-called super spreaders.

In the 2017-2018 flu season (worst in the last 10 years that we have stats for, this year was baaaad but no data tabulated yet) there were 45M infections (estimated, not confirmed), 810K hospitalizations, and 61k deaths.

While total cases of Covid including asymptomatic/mild may be a WAG, hospitalization numbers are not. Current NEJM and Lancet studies cite 15%-20% of hospitalized covid cases going serious/critical and requiring respiratory support and 90% of those dying. So in equal numbers of hospitalized covid patients (810k x 15% x 90%) that's 109k projected deaths.

Assuming the same 45M covid patients as 2017-18 seasonal flu, and 20% need hospitalization (currently a WAG but based upon optimistic Chinese stats) and 20% of those need ventilator support (not a WAG) that's 1.8M patients needing an ICU bed and if 90% mortality (not a WAG) that's 1.6M deaths.

So, 61K flu deaths vs 1.6M covid deaths in the same 45M patients. The WAG in that number is the number of expected hospitalizations. We're still awaiting the disease to peak in Korea before we can get an accurate number.

I don't know for sure, but this feels like a middlin' pandemic in the 1st world, about 10x worse than seasonal flu. I hope I'm wrong because that will crash our health system.

[Old Dog New Trick]

I’m not taking this “lightly” and respect those in the medical field tasked with identifying and treating this, but I’m not jumping overboard because a communist regime unleashed a virus on the world. This is the 21st century not the 19th or early 20th centuries. (Those still living there may find this more difficult to control.)

The best thing some of these modern medical cities could do is identify and use one treatment facility per 100,000 or use an existing structure to isolate and treat the disease without continuing to infect places and people that haven’t yet been exposed.

I’m not seeing that. I didn’t see that in Washington. They now have hospitals throughout King County that have all been exposed to one patient or a carrier. Not good management.

Again, I’m not busting your chops over this and I’m not trying to correlate a connection between influenza and COVID-19. Only that one we are not afraid of because we know much about it and the other is causing mass hysteria and panic.

[Cynic]

This article discusses by using scientific process instead of media hyperbole.
COVID-19 isn't as deadly as we think

[T-Rock]

My daughter reports today that she still has to get testing approval from the director of infectious disease and they’re still being stingy.*

I'm not so sure they're being stingy. I think it's because we just don't have the capability to do widespread testing yet. Last weekend our hospital didn't have the capacity to do testing and CDC guidelines were way too narrow. All that is beginning to change. Currently 67 Public Health labs in 45 states now have verified testing of SARsCov-2/COVID19. This is a huge improvement from just 8 weeks ago. Good news is, Quest Diagnostics now offering tests on demand for hospitals and clinics in its labs across the country. Buy stock in Quest. Lol
https://newsroom.questdiagnostics.co...-COVID-19-Test


Edited to add:
More good news. As of 6pm today, LabCorp has the capacity to test for SARsCov-2/COVID19.

https://ir.labcorp.com/news-releases...-2019-covid-19

[Old Dog New Trick]

Originally Posted by Cynic

This article discusses by using scientific process instead of media hyperbole.
COVID-19 isn't as deadly as we think

Good overall analysis and I agree with the findings from the “known” Petrie dish that was the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

Rumsfeld quip: things we know, things we don’t know, and things we don’t know we don’t know. (I think Chinese data is something we don’t know and know not to believe it.)

[InTheBlack]

Originally Posted by Cynic

This article discusses by using scientific process instead of media hyperbole.
COVID-19 isn't as deadly as we think

>
This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low).
>

Vs Mugwump saying seasonal flu should have produced 6. OTOH if they were confined as on that ship, maybe more ?

It was not an internal quarantine -- what are the details? Did people stay in their rooms & get served meals? & what about linen service? Were the crew the only transmission source? Was the "guest service" crew isolated from the other crew?

Why does this article assert that 705 is low?
***

I want to separate the "quantitative" aspect from the "qualitative" for COVID-19. How much more infectious is it than seasonal flu - the end result being more cases that enter the health care system at the lowest level? Is "infectious" simply the R0? What is the seasonal flu R0 range for past years?

>
In the 2017-2018 flu season (worst in the last 10 years that we have stats for, this year was baaaad but no data tabulated yet) there were 45M infections (estimated, not confirmed), 810K hospitalizations, and 61k deaths.

While total cases of Covid including asymptomatic/mild may be a WAG, hospitalization numbers are not. Current NEJM and Lancet studies cite 15%-20% of hospitalized covid cases going serious/critical and requiring respiratory support and 90% of those dying.

So in equal numbers of hospitalized covid patients (810k x 15% x 90%) that's 109k projected deaths.

Assuming the same 45M covid patients as 2017-18 seasonal flu, and
20% need hospitalization (currently a WAG but based upon optimistic Chinese stats) and
20% of those need ventilator support (not a WAG)

that's 1.8M patients needing an ICU bed and
if 90% mortality (not a WAG)
that's 1.6M deaths.

So, 61K flu deaths vs 1.6M covid deaths in the same 45M patients.

The WAG in that number is the number of expected hospitalizations.
>