Wuhan Coronavirus

[Penn]

ITB

The scientists found that the RBD portion of the SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins had evolved to effectively target a molecular feature on the outside of human cells called ACE2, a receptor involved in regulating blood pressure. The SARS-CoV-2 spike protein was so effective at binding the human cells, in fact, that the scientists concluded it was the result of natural selection and not the product of genetic engineering.

Which would be a point of departure using the inherent qualities of COV-2 as a base on which to create a new novel virus that capitalizes the “effective binding to human cells” that COV-2 exhibited.
It would be an immediate point of interest to any Bio-weapons researcher. In that sense, imo, intentionally constructed and released.

[JJ_BPK]

Received from a friend in Hong Kong.

A lot of statics, no idea of the legitimacy of the source.

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance
What the Next 18 Months Can Look Like, if Leaders Buy Us Time
Tomas Pueyo, Mar 19

This article follows Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now, an article with over 40 million views translated into over 30 languages describing the urgency of the Coronavirus problem. If you agree with this article, consider signing the corresponding White House petition. Translations available in 6 languages at the bottom.

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

Within a week, countries around the world have gone from: “This coronavirus thing is not a big deal” to declaring the state of emergency. Yet many countries are still not doing much. Why?

Every country is asking the same question: How should we respond? The answer is not obvious to them.

Some countries, like France, Spain or Philippines, have since ordered heavy lockdowns. Others, like the US, UK, Switzerland or Netherlands, have dragged their feet, hesitantly venturing into social distancing measures.

Here’s what we’re going to cover today, again with lots of charts, data and models with plenty of sources:

What’s the current situation?
What options do we have?
What’s the one thing that matters now: Time
What does a good coronavirus strategy look like?
How should we think about the economic and social impacts?

When you’re done reading the article, this is what you’ll take away:

Our healthcare system is already collapsing.
Countries have two options: either they fight it hard now, or they will suffer a massive epidemic.
If they choose the epidemic, hundreds of thousands will die. In some countries, millions.
And that might not even eliminate further waves of infections.
If we fight hard now, we will curb the deaths.
We will relieve our healthcare system.
We will prepare better.
We will learn.
The world has never learned as fast about anything, ever.
And we need it, because we know so little about this virus.
All of this will achieve something critical: Buy Us Time.



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coron...e-be9337092b56

[Badger52]

As a brief counterpoint to JJ's interesting & candid link, this 'dry' humor, seen in front of an attraction down in Wisconsin Dells, a major regional recreation/hotel-conference/camping destination, currently taking it in the shorts like everyone else.

[mugwump]

The epidemiology of this virus is established. ROK answered any remaining questions with their extensive testing program. Fear is not getting ahead of the data. It’s being driven by it.

Best case scenario is 1% CFR and that requires an intact HC system. So, 10x worse than a bad seasonal flu. ROK, Taiwan, Singapore will achieve that unless the wheels fall off. The rest of the world, no hope of a CFR that low.

330,000,000 * 40% attack rate * 1% CFR = 1,320,000 deaths in the US.

Note that is the lowest attack rate (40%-70% per Harvard health, 55% per Johns Hopkins, 60% in UK and Germany for their modeling) and the best case CFR. I think we'll see double that number of deaths.

Wuhan CFR was about 5.8%. Italy is in chaos and is 8.5% but their denominator is suspect and it’s probably 5%. Spain, France will follow that trend. Germany and the UK are unknowns.

Taiwan, Hong king, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Phillipines are all in warm latitudes and they are seeing cases. Don’t hang your hat on warm weather to stop this.

That said, I expect a late May to mid June peak for this wave. Summer lull by August, then a larger main peak in late November. That will be the big one as NPI measures are seen to be too tough and fatigue sets in. Then a final smaller wave March April 2021. Then small bumps like aftershocks.

This will be an 18 month acute phase, then endemic thereafter. Combined flu/covid annual CFR will be 0.4ish, four times a historical bad flu year. We'll need more ICU beds.

There is no Chinese vaccine. This started in late October and lied about it, it would be shocking if they didn’t have multiple candidates in play. But they have nothing. They’d tout it, social media leaks would report it, satellite would see preps for distribution.

France/Germany/UK are seeing riots and steamroll thefts of liquor and food now with their multicultural brethren. Imagine last-mile vaccine deployment in that environment.

That Nature article saying “natural virus” is CCP propaganda. I believe this was released due to negligence but I also believe it’s the result of enhancement research. Can’t be proven either way and that’s a hard fact unless someone talks.

We will have no vaccine that mere mortals will see for 18 months. Antiviral therapy is slightly better track, but if chloroquine/zinc doesn't work the other candidates are looking at serious supply chain constraints.

I too fear for the economy, imposition of unconstitutional civil “management” measures and a host of other issues. But when those gazillion gen Z mouth breathing spring breakers return home...5 day avg incubation, 20 day average course until death, their parents and grandparents will start dying in late April and then the jig will be up.

[Badger52]

Originally Posted by mugwump

That Nature article saying “natural virus” is CCP propaganda.

That exact phrasing is currently in wide use from many of the media who get their talking points from the Party (regardless of physical location of their office HQ). "natural phenomenon" virus created by nature" etc., ad nauseum.

[GratefulCitizen]

A bit sensationalized, but generally accurate.
Only a matter of time before it sweeps though the UPS system:

We'll keep the supply chain running so others can isolate for as long as it takes.
Hopefully, it will buy enough time to minimize the damage.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/21/terrifi...-to-work-sick/

[mugwump]

I have relatives or good friends working in hospitals in Modesto, Denver, Madison, New Haven, Brussels, Cambridge. They are all out of PPE or less than 2 days away. Denver and Madison are begging for sewing circles to make cloth masks. The others will follow suit when they get over the embarrassment.

I’m bringing all my remaining PPE to Madison tomorrow...400 masks is about a ten minute supply. They’re working with scarves over their faces.

Scarves.

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

A bit sensationalized, but generally accurate.
Only a matter of time before it sweeps though the UPS system:

We'll keep the supply chain running so others can isolate for as long as it takes.
Hopefully, it will buy enough time to minimize the damage.
https://dnyuz.com/2020/03/21/terrifi...-to-work-sick/

Point to one single statement that that I’ve sensationalized

[GratefulCitizen]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Point to one single statement that that I’ve sensationalized

I was referring to the article linked in my post.
I was not referring to your post or anyone else's

[mugwump]

Good summary. Latest symptoms, including GI

https://www.msn.com/en-us/Health/cor...11pWbr?ocid=sf

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by GratefulCitizen

I was referring to the article linked in my post.
I was not referring to your post or anyone else's

Sorry getting touchy, you’re always solid.

I'd just got off the phone with an idiot administrator who says they won’t take individually wrapped, completely labeled 3M N95 masks unless they’re in their original box. Of course I’d taken them out of boxes and into Tupperware tubs years ago, they take up so much room otherwise.

Sorry again, I’m pissed at the world atm and testy. Scared for my kids

[Ret10Echo]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Sorry getting touchy, you’re always solid.

I'd just got off the phone with an idiot administrator who says they won’t take individually wrapped, completely labeled 3M N95 masks unless they’re in their original box. Of course I’d taken them out of boxes and into Tupperware tubs years ago, they take up so much room otherwise.

Sorry again, I’m pissed at the world atm and testy. Scared for my kids

Had a Fed office that is shutting down....staff going through things before shutting off the lights and find a PILE of PPE in a closet. Suggestion is made to donate to the local Hospitals and Responders. Supervisor told them 'NO' ....

Really?

[mugwump]

Originally Posted by Ret10Echo

Had a Fed office that is shutting down....staff going through things before shutting off the lights and find a PILE of PPE in a closet. Suggestion is made to donate to the local Hospitals and Responders. Supervisor told them 'NO' ....

Really?

I’ve been calling all the trades businesses, tell them the problem, they say I’ll get back to you, and they do. Many have protective gear. Got good hits at a window manufacturer and a commercial door company, over 1500 n95 masks and some face shields.

I’ve given up on HC management, it’s all going straight to the wards.

[WarriorDiplomat]

Originally Posted by Trapper John

I thought you'd see this as intentional, but was wondering where you were hiding?

As you know my friend the Chinese and Russians sponsored much of the interrogation techniques used in Vietnam and Korea and used the techniques to gage U.S. and western in general resiliency....I remember reading the Cuban experiment on there much smaller but extremely brutal version...the axis powers have been studying us like we have studied them but it is western civilization that today thanks to socialist ideology that has the shaky foundation....I think the Chinese are having high level behind closed door discussions on strategy for what they do next...buy all the stocks they can, sponsor the Democrat candidate (maybe not this year but soon....how do they move forward and exploit this opportunity? The next few moves on the risk game board could determine who THE superpower will be...notice I said singularly THE not plural. Hey these leftists wanted globalism a one world government well??????

I honest to god think they accidently stumbled across reaction and were not prepared for how extreme western civilization has responded and the political pressure placed on every elected official to CYA and initiate extreme government procedures to control the new plague. This is the golden hour for them if they want it the opportunity is there.....I will leave the science to non political scientist not media or politics I am looking at the geo-political impact of the global economy and what it is saying to us who think in that realm

What is funny is those of us who experienced in our youth the more normal American way of life where kids spent all day outside, getting dirty stepping on nails getting into rocks fights and playing with everyone in the neighborhood...getting sick....getting exposed to germs building strong immunities. This is pre unnatural fear of germs that began perhaps with the spread of AID's and associated sensationalism that has turned our nation into a society of fearful people.....Yes disease spread being controlled through hygiene practices because we have the resources to do so separates us from third world nations but our magnificent collection of people from around the world the greatest social experiment on the planet....has given us access to exposure and adaption to germs from all over the world.....but it is irrational fear that has frozen mankind

What do you think?

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by WarriorDiplomat

As you know my friend the Chinese and Russians sponsored much of the interrogation techniques used in Vietnam and Korea and used the techniques to gage U.S. and western in general resiliency....I remember reading the Cuban experiment on there much smaller but extremely brutal version...the axis powers have been studying us like we have studied them but it is western civilization that today thanks to socialist ideology that has the shaky foundation....I think the Chinese are having high level behind closed door discussions on strategy for what they do next...buy all the stocks they can, sponsor the Democrat candidate (maybe not this year but soon....how do they move forward and exploit this opportunity? The next few moves on the risk game board could determine who THE superpower will be...notice I said singularly THE not plural. Hey these leftists wanted globalism a one world government well??????

I honest to god think they accidently stumbled across reaction and were not prepared for how extreme western civilization has responded and the political pressure placed on every elected official to CYA and initiate extreme government procedures to control the new plague. This is the golden hour for them if they want it the opportunity is there.....I will leave the science to non political scientist not media or politics I am looking at the geo-political impact of the global economy and what it is saying to us who think in that realm

What is funny is those of us who experienced in our youth the more normal American way of life where kids spent all day outside, getting dirty stepping on nails getting into rocks fights and playing with everyone in the neighborhood...getting sick....getting exposed to germs building strong immunities. This is pre unnatural fear of germs that began perhaps with the spread of AID's and associated sensationalism that has turned our nation into a society of fearful people.....Yes disease spread being controlled through hygiene practices because we have the resources to do so separates us from third world nations but our magnificent collection of people from around the world the greatest social experiment on the planet....has given us access to exposure and adaption to germs from all over the world.....but it is irrational fear that has frozen mankind

What do you think?

I think we don’t need to worry about the US Dollar being kneecapped anytime in the short-to-medium term.

It’s the least bad option of US Dollar, Euro(fragile), Yuan(not trusted).

If the US prints too much and screws foreign dollar/T Bill holders it could really hurt the US Dollar.

The Chinese Digital Yuan is on hold right now(due to COVID), but will relentlessly continue.

If China successfully exports a triad of:

WeChat(100% market share in China)
Associated Surveillance(make 3rd world gov’ts “moderators” and retain “admin”)
Digital Yuan(nudge US dollar out of developing world for platform transactions)

Then the US will have some big problems down the track, but it would likely take 10-20 years to really bite.

More short-term, OPEC ceased to exist in anything but name recently.

It’s like a return of the 80’s Oil Glut.

That led directly to collapse of the Soviet Union and invasion of Kuwait in half a decade.

Russia and Iran now have well aligned foreign policy interests(raise energy prices) that will likely include unconventional activities to achieve that desired endstate.

High cost of energy production nations will be screaming in pain and likely leading to disruption.

I could imagine Russia/Iran nexus loosing collaborating on intimidating/kneecapping competitor energy producers.

China and the US/west have short term alignment on the recovery tailwind low energy prices offer.

This sounds weird, but it is in the best interest of US/China to work together to mitigate against Russia/Iran causing mischief, especially with Saudi Arabia(e them being a bunch of turds) and to a lesser extend with other producers at risk of disruption like Libya, Algeria, Angola, and Venezuela.

I suspect SF may be busier this decade than any decade prior in terms of C-UW.

I completely agree that mental and social resilience is required.

However, we need to knock down the viral waves enough to get on with things.

The concept of risk/loss aversion in behavioural economics is critically important here. It is a very powerful behavioural construct that must be broken, with high perceived competence, reputation, and trust.

Broadly bifurcated partisanship in the US is a huge headwind to this.

The western “plane” is at low altitude(interest rates), low airspeed(economic activity) with the need to restart engines and regain economic lift and altitude.

I actually think the following 3 concepts are critical:

1)crew/cockpit resource management(CRM), think Tom Hanks as Sully

2)OODA loop by John Boyd

3)Principles of a gunfight

All are important

1) keep it simple stupid and solve the problem(S)

2) we need to observe, orient, decide, and act faster than before(and keep cycling). Velocity matters.

3) shoot first, shoot last, don’t target fixate, cycle to the next target, repeat