Wuhan Coronavirus

[mugwump]

I'm a Chinese troll, PSM.

Sorry I ghosted, I don’t do 16 hour days very well anymore. We got dragged into data interchange efforts between ad hoc testing labs and the CDC, first with a Pharma, then a state govt, then two more state health services. Not our forte but we were asked if we could help. It’s been enlightening.

I’m just as baffled as everyone else with the lockdown strategy. When I was involved with these things long ago there was enormous time and effort put into strategizing how to keep everyone working. Sporting events, movie theaters, other large groups were always planned to be closed. All businesses and manufacturing, never. Madness.

The two extremes the nation has polarized into are both wrong IMO. This isn’t a disease catastrophe (although it’s turning into a medical system catastrophe) and it’s not a nothingburger. If I had to guess at this stage I’d say the CFR will shake out to be 0.4%-0.6% over 12-28 months. Not insignificant but not the body blow I feared from what we were seeing in Wuhan.

The HCS has been overwhelmed in very few places, unfortunately in media hubs. The HCS collapse we're facing now is due to underuse, not overuse. My daughter spent 12 days in the hospital with COVID...clots and disseminated coagulopathy (ironic because she was managing coagulopathy patients before being retasked into covid efforts) and then was furloughed from her job on the day of her release because her clinic is shut down. She’s 31 years old, a runner in outstanding shape, and has no comorbidities. It was terrifying. She's out of the woods for now and hopefully for good.

That’s why I think it’s middle ground. None of her friends or acquaintances who know her story are anxious to go out for a movie and a meal. Behavior would have changed without a lockdown and it will be slow coming back.

Current studies indicate brief casual contact with an infected person isn’t a serious contagion risk. Sustained exposure is needed. Think of having a convo over several minutes or public transport exposure as needed. The biggest transmission risk is within the household.

Regarding hydroxychloroquine...using the drug when the patient is seriously ill tells you nothing. Existing antivirals have to be administered when symptoms are mild or they don’t work at all. Studies are starting now to see if it works if administered early but they’ll take a long time.

That “Plandemic” video is total drek. I’m all for 1A but “the virus is ‘activated’ by wearing a mask”? There’s never been an effective vaccine against an RNA virus? The SARS2 virus has been in the influenza vaccine sine 2015? It’s ridiculous.

I’m thrilled we're not seeing a 1-2% CFR and everyone is now talking about how this is nothing, but remember where we were a month ago watching NYC. It’s significantly worse than seasonal flu but significantly less dangerous than the Spanish flu. Right on the cusp where everyone can apply their personal Rorschach test and be at least partially right.