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Old 03-14-2020, 14:23   #11
Flagg
Area Commander
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 1,423
Quote:
Originally Posted by Penn View Post
ABC123

Russian, China, and Iran in less than a week present a direct threat, arguably coordinated, while also holding a duplicity of deniability. Two of the actions include the acceptance for the loss of life. Those incidents where loss of life is recorded occur in china as a deniable byproduct of zoonotic transfer in an outdoor market, covering the actual intent of releasing a 2nd novel virus with pandemic potential.

The 2nd virus corrected the deficiencies that the 1st SARS virus lacked. Released in Wuhan, layers the plausible denial for China’s leaders to argue, and later to lay elsewhere. The concept of state sponsored genocide is unthinkable for the West, but not for China. The strategy embraces the risk of unimageable loss of life, the goal to humble and hallow out America’s ability to defend/react, while China holds hostage the entire American/world financial system, offering the opportunity to complete China’s long term goal of reincorporating its ancestral rouge territories: Hong Kong Taiwan; consolidate influence and expansion in SEA locally and the whole of the Pacific generally.

Russia has similar interest looking west, where Russia goal is to control all of western & Central Europe via energy. While Iran plays the linchpin where Russia, China and Iran engage America in a war of attrition in the unresolvable ME, impacting the political situation in America’s primary Presidential election year.

Maximum pressure campaign by three ideologically aligned state actors. All possess mutual interest and seek Regional hegemony.

Their actions taken separately and together, painted with a broad-brush stroke, engage the Trump Administration by capitalizing on and encouraging through surrogates, the continued domestic political discord.

This is not a product of happenstance or coincidence. It is not by chance that Russia decides to up the ante to gauge response by flying a routine mission into AM/CA airspace, while the Administration is confronting pandemic hysteria and the accusation by China that America is responsible for the virus, mixed that opaque color with the MSM Propaganda charging incompetence and uncertainty, while Iran reenters the mix by attacking and killing Americans, a Red line crossed, confirming Iran also is willingly prepared for the loss of life in pursuit of its Regional ambition, is not accidentals.

Imo, this is not by chance, but by mutual interest that China, Russia, and Iran act, if not by formal verbal mutual consent and agreement, (Obama/Putin) but by understanding political opportunity, these three have capitalized with the understand that the enemy of my enemy is my friend philosophy.

Further, I suspect and have no faith that Kerry on his trip to Iran, acted in America’s best interest. Possibly encouraging these events, by explaining the possible outcome that would be mutually beneficial if Trump was not reelected in 2020.
While I strongly agree with the premise that Russia wants to control Western Europe with energy(based on the following):

Early 80’s energy pipeline deal smashed by Reagan

Western Europe pushing hard for Libya intervention to diversify supply

Russia/Turkey nexus(unthinkable years ago) to monopolise EU access to energy out of Central Asia.

BUT, the implosion of OPEC and collapse of energy prices puts Russia at risk in the same way the Oil Glut of the 80’s directly contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union a few years later.

Russia is utterly dependent on oil export revenue(higher energy prices) to maintain power.

The same applies to Iran.

China wants/needs cheap energy to keep the machine going.

I think that’s where their key economic interests diverge significantly.

If China lost a few hundred million old folks it would rebalance the artificial lump of old people in the demographic chart from long term one-child policy.

But it would eliminate a lot of energy consumers as well.

Common enemies align, but incongruent economic interests disrupt.

Perhaps there is another “only Nixon could go to China” moment in the next few years.
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