Does America Have a Muslim Problem?

[NosceHostem]

Originally Posted by nmap

I found your thoughts most interesting, NosceHostem. I would very much appreciate any views you had about the timing of more aggressive behavior on the part of Islam.

Thank you nmap and Saoirse. My thoughts on the timing of more aggressive action from Islam are as follows: Islamic terrorism in America is undoubtedly on the rise; of the 30 or so attempted attacks since 9/11, one-third occurred in 2009. We’ve seen further arrests in 2010 with an increase in home-grown domestically born plotters. In addition, I’m inclined to believe that the violent Islamists have established extensive networks throughout the West and could therefore conduct tactical strikes against us virtually at will. For instance, Hizballah and al Qaeda teamed up in the 90’s and have been using Latin America to great effect (particularly the Tri-border region and Venezuela) in order to procure cash, arms, and forged travel documents. Jihadis have been marrying into drug cartels as well. Moreover, “Other Than Mexicans” have been caught crossing our border in droves, along with their Qurans and prayer rugs found in the desert. The enemy is here. Again, Lt. Col Joseph Myers details the threat extensively at archive.org here and here.

So a reasonable conclusion is that these jihadis could be blowing up gas stations, shopping malls, trains, preschools, etc. Why haven’t they? My hunch is that rather than escalate the rage of America with smaller strikes and incur our subsequent wrath, they will wait patiently until they have the capacity for a system collapsing attack. They may already have this capability. Such an attack would use chemical, biological, and/or nuclear weapons to cripple us. Some experts are greatly concerned with the threat of an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) to do just that. The fact that Zawahiri called off an NYC subway attack with sarin gas in lieu of “something better” indicates that al Qaeda has adopted this strategy of pursuing a truly crippling attack. There are really only 3 arguments for a lack of a WMD attack by al Qaeda: disruption, deterrence, and patience. As I discuss below, I seriously doubt the efficacy of deterrence with this adversary. Ominously, Harvard University’s Graham Allison, author of Nuclear Terrorism, expects such an attack in the near future.

Furthermore, there have been reports that Usama bin Laden has enough highly enriched uranium for multiple nuclear weapons. Also, both he and Zawahiri claim that al Qaeda has nuclear weapons. Clearly, this revelation would not be surprising considering the cash the jihadists have (through the heroin trade and other illicit activities as well as Islamic “charity” [zagat] which is often simply financial support for jihad from individuals and oil rich regimes). In addition, by their very criminal/terrorist natures, jihadis have the connections within the underworld necessary to access the illegal arms market. Procuring HEU is really the only difficult step in making a Hiroshima-style bomb, a design that is simple, reliable, and readily available. Likely, they have the money, the connections, and the will to do so.

Regarding deterrence, the Mutually Assured Destruction which kept nuclear stability/stalemate throughout the Cold War is predicated on the international actors being rational. Arguably, our current foes are not. For example, former CIA head Jim Woolsey, former SecDef William Perry, Princeton University Islamic expert Bernard Lewis, and others believe that the rulers of Iran truly think we are at the end-time approaching the return of the 12th Mahdi. According to Shia eschatology, the Mahdi will return at a time of great suffering for the Muslim world in order to avenge them and vanquish the infidels. Apparently, Ahmadinejad believes it is his role to usher in the Mahdi. His spiritual adviser, Mesbah-Yazdi, is the leader of an Islamic end-time cult called the Hojjatieh. Not very comforting. And I’m not persuaded that the Sunni jihadis are any less suicidal.

So…as far as timing goes, I suspect Israel will soon attack the Iranian nuclear program (weeks/months?) and possibly the seats of regime power as well. This is an atrocious option but exponentially better than allowing the Iranian thugs to get nukes, at best sparking a nuclear arms race by the volatile Sunni nations. It would not surprise me in the least if WMDs were used against Israel and/or the U.S. in crippling fashion as “retaliation” for Israel attacking Iran. I sure hope I’m very wrong.