From the Brookings Institute comes an analysis of how long it will take to recover from the job losses experienced in the current recession. At the current rate, it will take about 136 months. If a much more optimistic scenario is assumed, it will still take 57 months.
In my opinion, this suggests that housing, the overall economy, and the stock market are unlikely to recover quickly.
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Complete article at LINK
Excerpt:
The "job gap" underlying these numbers is daunting. In recent months, on this blog, we described the job gap -- the number of jobs it would take to return to employment levels from before the Great Recession, while also accounting for the 125,000 people who enter the labor force in a typical month.
After today's employment numbers, the job gap stands at almost 11.3 million jobs.
How long will it take to erase this gap? If future job growth continues at a rate of roughly 208,000 jobs per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year for job creation in the 2000s, it would take 136 months (more than 11 years). In a more optimistic scenario, with 321,000 jobs created per month, the average monthly job creation for the best year in the 1990s, it would take over 57 months (almost 5 years).
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