OK, last time with the pandemic flu warning, I promise. I don't want to be Chicken Little, but I saw a lot of heavy hitters with "deer-in-the-headlights" looks in their eyes last week.
I'm as far as you can get from a QP. I mostly hang out with virologists and clinical researchers. I followed NDD here from another forum to read a review, and I stayed because I like the no-BS environment. Anywho, I sent this out to some family/friends and thought I'd put it out here...take it or leave it.
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As some of you know my company develops software for the medical research community. I am
not a primary researcher -- I just carry water for those who are. I met w/ several of these scientists last week and the buzz was all about a paper to be released on 16 March in the respected journal
Science (writen by very bright buys at Scripps and CDC). It has them all very spooked; it's found here:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/conten...ract/1124513v1
I'll cite the (incomprehensible) abstract and then present the explanation I was given by a virologist/geneticist.
"The hemagglutinin (HA) structure at 2.9 angstrom resolution, from a highly pathogenic Vietnamese H5N1 influenza virus, is more related to the 1918 and other human H1 HAs than to a 1997 duck H5 HA. Glycan microarray analysis of this Viet04 HA reveals an avian {alpha}2-3 sialic acid receptor binding preference. Introduction of mutations that can convert H1 serotype HAs to human {alpha}2-6 receptor specificity only enhanced or reduced affinity for avian-type receptors. However, mutations that can convert avian H2 and H3 HAs to human receptor specificity, when inserted onto the Viet04 H5 HA framework, permitted binding to a natural human {alpha}2-6 glycan that suggests a path for this H5N1 virus to gain a foothold in the human population."
I know, sheesh. Here's what this means: They gene-sequenced the H5N1 (bird flu) virus that killed many people in Viet Nam last year and compared it with H5N1 virus originally isolated in 1997. The Vietnamese virus has mutated to a form very similar to that of the 1918 strain that caused the last big pandemic
without losing it's lethality. Further, the probable mutation path suggests that the current highly pathogenic H5N1 virus can easily mutate for human-to-human (H2H) transmission.
This is Very Bad Juju according to them. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR - percentage of those who present with symptoms and then subsequently die) of the current strain is very high - around 55%. All official projections for CFR if a H5N1 pandemic breaks loose hover around 1.5 - 2.5 %. Why about 2% and not 55%? Three reasons: 1) the alternative is unthinkable; 2) 2.5% was the death rate in 1918 (although note that's an average - 7% of all 20-40 year old Bostonians died in October, 1918 along with 50% of all pregnant women); 3) the thinking was that as the virus mutated to H2H form it would lose much of its lethality.
The fact that the H5N1 virus has mutated so far while remaining extremely lethal is very sobering.
Note that a CFR of about 50% would not mean that half the poplulation would die, but that half of those infected would die. If a pandemic followed 1918 infection rates, that would mean 25-30% would catch it. A CFR of 50% would mean 37.5 million Americans could die.
See Bob Webster here (you'll have to watch a commercial):
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=1725519
He's one of the top virologists in the world, and arguably
the top guy in H5N1. He comes off a bit dotty, but that's due to an editing hack job and nervousness. He's sharp as a tack. Note that this topic is the third-rail of virology; making this type of warning endangers ones reputation . Mike Leavitt, Director of DHHS ("Should we wrap that can of tuna fish with duct tape before we store it under the bed?") is getting this treatment:
Government officials are officially insane. Several years ago Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge advised Americans to protect themselves against terrorism by buying duct tape and plastic sheeting (to wrap themselves up in it?) Now HHS Secretary Mike Leavitt says Americans should store tuna fish as a precaution against bird flu.)
In a remarkable speech over the weekend, Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt recommended that Americans start storing canned tuna and powdered milk under their beds as the prospect of a deadly bird flu outbreak approaches the United States.
What he actually said was it would be prudent to begin gradually stockpiling food.
Can this turn out to be nothing? Most defnitely. Could this be "the defining event of the last 1000 years" as one scientist said to me? Possibly. I suggest you do your own research and make up your own mind. Google will point you to many sites (
www.pandemicflu.gov,
www.who.int, etc.) but a good one that consolidates the medical, social, and economic issues is
http://www.medcko.com (formerly fluwikie . com).
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