I came across the following material about oil supplies that may be of general interest.
Briefly:
1. World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. According to the IEA, the current peak production of 86.13 mbd occurred on July 2006 and only one year later, June 2007 total liquids production fell to an unexpectedly low 84.28 mbd. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.
2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012.
(Much more at:
This Link )
The numbers suggest a developing imbalance between oil supply and demand, with the implication that prices will advance significantly. With the existing issues in the mortgage and debt markets, the implications for the U.S. and global economies are unpleasant.
I suspect the impact on global politics will be even sharper. China and India have expanded their usage, the U.S. needs considerable fuel to supply our domestic needs, and as supply is constrained, the potential for conflict seems likely to increase. The Middle East seems poised to get more attention, as will other producing areas such as Mexico and Venezuela.
My background in securities brokerage has given me some comfort with considering results in the markets and the overall economy – but I’m not qualified to speculate about the impact on diplomacy and possible military implications. I would guess that Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, and Mexico would all face greater instability; but it would be an uninformed guess.
Assuming such speculation wouldn't violate any security considerations, I’d very much appreciate any thoughts on the matter.
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