Ebola: "Out of Control in West Africa"

[LarryW]

The tragedy which is Iraq and the threat that is ISIS may soon bow to a much bigger elephant in the room. This may be a greater threat.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/w...reak/11110943/

Ebola called 'out of control' in West Africa
By Michael Winter, USA TODAY

" The deadliest-ever outbreak of the Ebola virus has surged in West Africa after slowing briefly, and the pandemic is now "out of control," according to Doctors Without Borders.

Nearly 600 infections and 340 Ebola-related deaths have been recorded in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, the most since the virus was discovered in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan almost 40 years ago, the World Health Organization said this week. There's no cure or vaccine for the highly contagious disease, which has mortality rate of up to 90%.

"The reality is clear that the epidemic is now in a second wave," Bart Janssens, the medical charity's operations director, told the Associated Press on Friday. "And, for me, it is totally out of control."

He criticized the WHO and African governments for not doing more to contain the outbreak and to thoroughly trace everyone who has had contact with the sick or the dead.

"There needs to be a real political commitment that this is a very big emergency," he said. "Otherwise, it will continue to spread, and for sure it will spread to more countries."

As of Friday, the WHO was not recommending any travel or trade restrictions to the three countries.

"We think that the situation can be controlled with the measures that are being vigorously implemented," Francis Kasolo, the director for disease prevention and control at the WHO's regional office in Republic of Congo, told the German broadcaster Deutsche Welle.

The virus, one of the world's most virulent, is transmitted by contact with the blood, fluids or tissues of infected animals or people. It causes high fever, vomiting, muscle pain and diarrhea, and can result in unstoppable internal bleeding and organ failure.

Transmission risk is especially high among doctors, nurses and other health care workers.

The latest outbreak began in January or December in the forests of southeastern Guinea and spread to urban areas. Guinea has been the hardest hit, with 264 deaths recorded by Wednesday. Sierra Leone has reported 49 deaths and Liberia 24.

"This is the highest outbreak on record and has the highest number of deaths, so this is unprecedented so far," Armand Sprecher, a public health specialist with Doctors Without Borders, told the AP.

Sierra Leone has stepped up measures to prevent and contain the disease, the country's health minister said Thursday.

In Liberia, nurses fearful over the Ebola death of a colleague abandoned a hospital in New Kru Town, forcing it to close. During a solidarity visit to the hospital Tuesday, President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf declared the outbreak a national emergency. "

[Flagg]

I''m no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing Ebola simply burns far too quickly and doesn't transmit well enough to be a global or even major regional threat.

But it's certainly yet another warning indicator of the very real risk and near inevitability of a truly global viral fire that could burn a significant percentage of monkeys off this rock via 1st and 2nd order effects.

It makes me hope that the likes of DARPA, CDC, and DHS are coordinating and investing in rapid/real-time mass testing for air travel.

Instead of looking at my junk on a scanner maybe they should be checking if Passengers are ticking viral bombs.

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Flagg

I''m no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing Ebola simply burns far too quickly and doesn't transmit well enough to be a global or even major regional threat.

But it's certainly yet another warning indicator of the very real risk and near inevitability of a truly global viral fire that could burn a significant percentage of monkeys off this rock via 1st and 2nd order effects.

It makes me hope that the likes of DARPA, CDC, and DHS are coordinating and investing in rapid/real-time mass testing for air travel.

Instead of looking at my junk on a scanner maybe they should be checking if Passengers are ticking viral bombs.

Ebola, although highly virulent, contagious, and lethal it is not transmissible like influenza (low infectivity rate). Ebola requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids, like HIV. Containment measures will prevent widespread spread of this disease. At highest risk are the health-care workers.

[LarryW]

If any travel is necessary into the West Africa areas please take precautions.

Greatest respects for the comments below, but still ...

Originally Posted by Flagg View Post
I''m no epidemiologist, but I'm guessing Ebola simply burns far too quickly and doesn't transmit well enough to be a global or even major regional threat.

But it's certainly yet another warning indicator of the very real risk and near inevitability of a truly global viral fire that could burn a significant percentage of monkeys off this rock via 1st and 2nd order effects.

It makes me hope that the likes of DARPA, CDC, and DHS are coordinating and investing in rapid/real-time mass testing for air travel.

Instead of looking at my junk on a scanner maybe they should be checking if Passengers are ticking viral bombs.

(Posted by Trapper John) Ebola, although highly virulent, contagious, and lethal it is not transmissible like influenza (low infectivity rate). Ebola requires direct contact with infected bodily fluids, like HIV. Containment measures will prevent widespread spread of this disease. At highest risk are the health-care workers.

Just be damned careful, y'all.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/23/health...html?hpt=hp_t1

[Trapper John]

Originally Posted by Brush Okie

What are the chances of something like this morphing into something that has a higher infectivity rate? I understand viruses tend to adapt over time sometimes quickly. Is it holiweird fantasy to think this may turn to something that is worse?

I'm not a virologist nor a gene jockey, but I did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. So my short answer is - "I don't have a f'n clue"

My guess is though, it's going to be a rare event and hard for this virus to naturally mutate. I say that because their is no driving force to do so and there are fewer opportunities. We are talking about a zoonotic disease that is quite well adapted to its primary host. A deliberate contact (monkeys as a food source) with a closely related species was the only reason Ebola emerged in humans. This is not at all like a swine or avian virus adapting to an unrelated species to find a new host.

Of greater concern to me is the intentional mutation to make Ebola transmissible via the airborne route, to survive outside a host for longer periods of time, increase the prodromal period (lag time between infection and outbreak of symptoms), etc.

There are folks operating in this AO that would have such intentions and could acquire the capability. That's the greater threat IMO.

[BrokenSwitch]

Someone's been reading too much Tom Clancy (Executive Orders and Rainbow Six).

With that said... I suppose some of his ideas were prescient.

[DJ Urbanovsky]

The White House says it's not a threat, and will be continuing plans to host a three day summit of African leaders. Meanwhile, the CDC has this to say about the Ebola:

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/...g/ebola-guinea

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/.../ebola-liberia

http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices/...a-sierra-leone

And then they published this:

http://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/air/ma...-airlines.html

But it's not a threat, right?

I'm no medic, and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but I do know that Ebola is incredibly virulent, and is present in all of the host's bodily fluids and excretions. Including sweat. Sweat!

I'm not trying to be alarmist here, but this is kind of a big deal. UK and US residents (aid workers) have already been infected and are dead.

Usually an outbreak starts in the hinterlands, and burns itself out quickly. This time, it started in major population centers, and hosts have boarded aircraft and traveled...

Do a Google search and start reading.

Just sayin'...