GWOT War Game

[NousDefionsDoc]

I keep hearing libs crying about Iraq and taking resources from 'Stan, being unnecessary, etc. Let's war game it a little.

What is the sitrep today if:
1. We did not conduct operations against Iraq
2. We sent 170k troops in Afghanistan

This seems to be what they are saying, so I'll play.

You mean, we are isolated in a mountainous country and busy providing logistical support to a huge number of soldiers that have no mission?

[NousDefionsDoc]

Roger GH, or we can talk about doing 'Stan like we did it and no follow on to Iraq.

[Roguish Lawyer]

I see at least two questions:

1. To what extent was Iraq providing (or likely to provide) support or safe haven for terrorists before the invasion?

2. To what extent would the replacement of Hussein's regime with a democratic republic strategically disadvantage the terrorists?

:

Originally Posted by Roguish Lawyer

I see at least two questions:

1. To what extent was Iraq providing (or likely to provide) support or safe haven for terrorists before the invasion?

Abu Nidal was there. The Arab Liberation Front was founded by the Iraqis.

2. To what extent would the replacement of Hussein's regime with a democratic republic strategically disadvantage the terrorists?

:

Assuming success as a capitilist society, a huge amount of pressure on the regimes in the region.

Look at SE Asia and think of Thailand as Iraq.

[NousDefionsDoc]

1. Before OEF - as GH said, he was already providing safe haven for terrorists in general. Let's not forget the WRC bombing AWG that ran there after the did. There are others. After OEF and before OIF - I think he would have invited the Mossad in if he thought it would help him stay in power.

2. I'm not sure I follow the question - but I see GH's point.

I'm sure Jimbo or somebody else will correct me, but I don't see AQ as an operating system, but rather as a virus. Look at what they did to the Taliban in 'Stan. They come in, take over, ruin everything and move on. This is not uncommon - the 26 of July Movement did it to the communists in Cuba.

Maybe a good analogy for AQ is the Department of Homeland Defense. Its not really an organization, but rather a collective of previous organizations kind of working together in some cases and kind of not in others. Does anybody really think Tom Ridge is telling the Border Patrol or Coast Guard what to do? Does anybody really believe the FBI and CIA are working together?

I am thinking that if we did OEF and not OIF, the AQ simply move to Iraq, where they are welcomed with open arms by Hussein. I think POTUS put his queen (the elections) at risk to deny the enemy part of the board. A very ballsy move if that is true. I think it is a logical assumption that they would go to Iraq when forced out of 'Stan. We know there were overtures before. And we thought (I still do) that Iraq had WMD. So, knowing we couldn't get them all in 'Stan and the Pakistanis etc would help them, OIF kept them from taking Iraq whole and in league with Hussein. See what I mean? OIF wasn't about WMD or freeing Hadji so he could vote - it ws about denying AQ Iraq.

POTUS is playing chess and everybody assumes he's playing checkers. Good position to be in.