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Not necessarily a classic political insurgency - yet. But classic markers of insurgent activity are evident. It requires thinking outside the normal box of political analysis.
While Mexico may not be undergoing an all out political insurgency, it is important to remember that it is not being touted a political insurgency in the classic sense.
The criminal insurgency in Mexico definitely contains the elements of initial stages of classic insurgency however. No matter what RAND’s sometimes conflicting opinion may be - and they appear to ride the fence at the moment for who knows what political reasons, they are not the definitive word on any subject matter but simply another source of opinion.
The debate is often contentious regarding the situation in Mexico but one thing that is not debatable is Mexico’s situation has deteriorated with violence approaching or exceeding some of the main theaters and AO’s of operation the US is currently engaged in. Mexico is labeled the "Kidnapping Capital of The World" now. Typically it is Mexican's kidnapping other Mexicans, businessmen etc.
The oft touted number of “40,000 murders have occurred in the drug war since 2006” is being increasingly considered as vastly under-reported by at least 10,000.
In 2006 President Caldron stated that the Drug cartels were trying to take over the country – by every measure signs of "insurgent" activity.
Since then more than 250,000 civilians have been displaced in Mexico due to the situation - by every measure a result of insurgent-type activity and something not seen in Mexico in recent memory.
In 2010 President Caldron stated that the Cartels were “trying to take over or replace the government” – this is the language of a government facing an insurgent threat.
The Cartels run virtual shadow or parallel government in some areas and the theft and control of Petroleum by Cartels and gangs is in the hundreds of millions of dollars and helps fund much of what they do. This is vastly under-reported in the story and Saga of today's Mexico.
Infiltration into Mexican government is heavy. This is a deliberate strategy by Cartels to gain even greater political control. It is estimated that as much as a third of the AFI, Mexican Federal Investigations are believed to be corrupted and even working for Cartels. This does not even count the myriad of local police and other agencies. Entire police forces have been found to be simply part of Cartels in some towns.
“Let’s talk about 40 percent of the national territory where the State no longer governs, a 40 percent that is slowly spreading.”
–retired Mexican Major General Luis Garfias Magaña, in the news magazine Proceso, May 5, 2011.
The Mexican government “has lost territorial control, and, in sum, governability…in more than 50″ percent of Mexico’s land area.
–Jorge Carrillo Olea, founder of Mexico’s lead civilian intelligence agency, to EFE news service on August 28, 2011.
The demeanor and language of Cartels is increasingly paramilitary with use of nearly full combat load infantry weaponry and tactics to include many military weapons smuggled in from what’s left over of the 35 year Guatemala civil war and other global arms trafficking sources. This far exceeds the norm and profile associated with "gang activity".
Increasingly narco banners and blog messages such as; "We are the armed wing of the people, and for the people," & "We are anonymous warriors, faceless, but proudly Mexican."
No, it is not entirely a classic political insurgency occurring in Mexico. But it is a hyper-violent Narco-Criminal insurgency that is destabilizing the fabric of society and posing increasing risk to the USA.
I predict that America will largely continue to try to ignore it as much as possible until we enter a reactionary mode at some point in the future. I have doubts about the sincerity of the Mexican government to stop it despite putting on a good show. The narco trade brings tens of billions into the Mexican economy. And obviously our current government is not blameless what with the various Fast and Furious debacles and nefarious agendas.
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"No freeman shall be debarred the use of arms."
Thomas Jefferson
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