Survival: Conditions of Emergency

[LarryW]

The attachment represents my own attempt at developing a plan, or at least an approach to a plan, for survival of an emergency situation that could happen in my community. I tried sending this back-channel to a couple of members for their comment before publishing this but could never figure out how to send an attachment via PM. I admit to being one of the rubber knives in the drawer.

I wrote this document addressing my own individual (single with dog) perspective. I offer it to the PS.com site only as it may be personnally beneficial to members. In order to make improvements, I invite comments either in this open forum or via PM or email. The opinions of the QP's subscribing to this site are invaluable resources, and I receive their comments with my humble thanks in advance.

Standing by…

Edit Note: As was pointed out by one of the members, this is my plan and not yours. Win or lose, I have to own it, and I do. Your experiences and requirements are and should be unique to serve you. Just wanted to say that. Thanks.

Conditions of Emergency.pdf

[The Reaper]

Very interesting.

Not sure what you expect to find by bugging out vs. staying in place. Urban or suburban residents may wish to bug out, if they have a better place to go (which is prepared), and adequate warning/resources to reach it. If you return from bugging out, you should anticipate that your home has been looted, destroyed, or occupied by armed squatters.

You live in a relatively rural area, are you temporarily bugging out to a better place, and are prepared to lose your home?

As far as your plan goes, I like your graduated evacuation criteria, even if I might disagree with some of them.

If you have the ability, I would consider getting rid of the .22 revolver and .25 Colt auto. A good .22 auto pistol, like the Ruger, would, IMHO, be a much more useful weapon. Still, if you can get close enough to a deer to kill it with a .22LR, without bait, you are a better man than I. The .25 ACP is actually inferior to the .22, and the Colt is an antique. A good .380 compact pistol, like the Kel-tec, SIG, Ruger, etc. would be a much more effective hide-out gun. Even better would be a compact 9mm, like the Kahr, or a Glock.

21 cases of MREs takes up a lot of space. Unless you are bugging out in a van or a pick-up, you may want to choose something more compact and lighter. Don't forget to store them cool, and remember that they have a limited shelf life.

I would add an air mattress or ground pad to the sleeping gear in your pack.

The value of a good axe is hard to hard to beat, especially when you may have to fell or remove trees. Do not forget to add a file or large stone for sharpening it.

Remember that many things can be preserved or made palatable with salt and spices. A bag of salt and a small container or two of spices could come in handy.

I would consider possibly trading some water for fuel (or replacing some of the MREs with another can), depending on your worst case estimate of the amount needed to get to your destination.

Traps, snare wire, or fishing gear might come in handy in the field. OTOH, in my opinion, most people vastly overestimate the amount of game in an area, even without dozens of people trying to subsist on it.

Do you have any signalling gear? Tools or vehicle repair kit? A comealong?

What, no multitool?

Well thought out plan, overall.

TR

[LarryW]

Excellent comments, TR. Making several revisions now (esp re: MREs, ground pad, edged tools, etc). Each comment is critical and very much appreciated.

Some of my thought processes:

Re: decision to evacuate (abandon) the security of the known: The risks associated with remaining during a calamity such as civil anarchy (IMHO) could require organizing a more complex resistance effort (enlisting the support of neighbors, etc) to mount some form of organized defense. This takes time and tends one to be committed to a course of action that may be unsustainable without additional resources. Forming interdependencies with others makes the issue of indiividual survival more complex. Granted, lots of pros/cons to be (and are being)considered.

Re: firearms: The .22 revolver is a simple design. Had a .22 Ruger auto once but had brass fouling problems after a couple of magazines. Probably that individual weapon. Valid point re: .25 and have since in the plan replaced with .380 Bersa for backup (other brands you cite would be much better, but the Bersa is a bird in the hand). Re: Survival/ Papoose .22 rifle vs deer: The notion is that if I can hit a deer from a tree stand with a bow I should be able to hit a small deer from a sim distance (< 35 yds) with the Papoose. Head shot the only option, certainly. The primary virtue of the .22 is weight of ammo, compact configuration, and commonality of ammo domestically. Also, sometimes it's better to appear to be unarmed.

Goal is to survive. Evacuation in this plan is "advancement to the rear" when the only other option is surrender (a non-option).

[Maytime]

As a general framework this is some excellent work. Of course everybody's situation is different, and we can all apply different parameters to the model to fit each scenario.

After reading through the document, I got to thinking about the fluidity of the conditions. How fast do you escalate or de-escalate a condition? Is there a process by which you change conditions? Moreover, what factors do you include in the decision making process to change a condition/plan? All these questions are semi-rhetorical, and I may be coming out of left field with them, as I am in no way a survival expert. I guess changing your plan may hinge on how much risk you are willing to accept, i.e. figuring out the consequences of altering your general course of action (which can be what-if'd to death). TR touched on that, I'm just curious what others may think about dealing with change and mitigating risk.

Good stuff!

[JJ_BPK]

Larry

Couple points.

I like your matrix, but as you are in a very good rural area, I think it needs tweaking..

One of the most stabilizing commodities to a disaster is "community". The fact that you have friends & family close at hand make any problem more livable. With few exceptions(atomic bomb) staying in place is advisable,, WHEN your already in a rural area.

If there are riots or Martial law is declared, your family and friends are your defensive cadre. Additionally, If there is civil unrest IN YOUR AREA, you are probable parts of it. As you stated, 500 people in a town are either going to be for or against, and you will personally know most if not all who will defend you. Again your friends & family are your support troops.

For Natural Disasters, Pandemic, & Economic problems,, again friends and family,, and in your case FARMS are the best defense. In a rural area, lower populations densities allow all resources to last longer. Also the rural area will put large green buffers between those that may carry infectious disease.

*********************

Now the one topic you did not cover,, You live in a rural area and hopefully have established a support community.

What are you going to do if the masses from the big cities come looking for food & shelter.

I am not suggesting roving bands of zombies with mini-guns mounted on their motorcycles. I am talking about starving families that need help.

Simple answer is to use claymores or foo-gas on the perimeter.

But that's not going to last more the the first wave.. At most you kill 200 maybe 300. Then what do you do with the stinking bodies?? Open up a BBQ stand??

Or enlist them in your community, make them productive, add to your resources, and capitalize upon their abilities.

Sound simple,, HELL NO.
Is it doable,, Only with a lot of work.

Do I have a plan, Yes, but much less verbose and limited to natural disasters. Which, by the by, covers just about all other problems.

In the last 14 years, living here in the Conch Republic, we have executed our plan several times. During Georges(1998) and Wilma(2005), we ended up with 24-30 inches of water covering our neighborhood. Averaged about 8 hours of flooding. Lose of power, phones, water, & services lasted 13 days & 8 days, respectively.

And after each execution, we got together with our neighbors and commiserated on the things we did correctly and what we did wrong.

• We have never had zombies, but have had local looters..
• We did not have pandemics but the flooding did float "stuff" out of everyone's septic tanks.
• We did not encounter civil unrest, but we had our share of dummies that had no plan and thought they deserved better.
• We did have a fair share of economic collapse, as this is a Tourista area, we had a hard time convincing them to return.

I think you have a great start. Involve your community. Plan more for the long duration IN PLACE. Try to limit E&E to the extreme cases. Get your dog a ruck and take him on your marches.. He needs to carry his own..

Good Luck.. My $00.0002

[LarryW]

Excellent comments, JJ. Re: some of the points you make:

Collaboration with others: The strength/security in numbers is compelling. Organizing the needy tens/hundreds is a challenge but probably manageable with some kind of martial constabulary oversight.

SIP in a rural setting: This is also a reasonable notion except for the extreme nuclear attack or massive pandemic problems. One thing about growing your own food is the need to have it planted, or harvested and preserved before the SHTF. Timing is everything.

What I tried to consider in the draft is worse case. I figured it would be easier to back down from a "pre-planned response" if conditions allowed. If evacuation is required it's better to do it earlier than later, and that was in my mind.

Thanks very much for your comments. All are being incorporated in on going second draft work.

[ChickenMcFuggit]

Originally Posted by JJ_BPK

Larry[*]We have never had zombies, ..

But you concede, it COULD happen.

My 2 cents is just personal experience in the Coastal South Carolina area, not advice, just bringing up a war story that might be relevant. Our Emergency Management/Hurricane Evacuation plan worked beautifully last time it was used (Thank you LtC Baxley). Most everyone that was going to leave was gone from Hilton Head within around 8 hours of the Governor's orders. HH has a natural choke point as US 278 is the only road on and off the island of some 25K people in the summer. The problem occurred once they left. Our county had a plan, others didn't. Then South Carolina Highway Patrol refused to reverse one lane on I-95 and tales of it taking 4 days to reach Columbia, SC, normally a 2 and a half hour drive, were prevalent. Even with several SC Highways leading out of the county. Hotels from here to Atlanta were booked tight. The only people that made it with their sanity intact were those who were fleeing to family/friends elsewhere. Relying on commercial services became a fools errand and the government had very limited resources. The Red Cross was stretched thin and has since been downsized if you can believe that. I lived out of the trunk of my patrol car for a few days but it was still better off than those trying to flee.
Take from this anything you think useful.