Predicting the future through game theory

nmap · 04-19-2009, 20:27

This is an odd one - but, perhaps, worthy of consideration.

It appears that a professor of political science has found a way, using computers and game theory, to accurately predict world events. He has, according to third-party reports, established a favorable track record with the CIA.

The first link discusses him, his background, and his methods.

The second link is a 20 minute video with predictions for Iran and its nuclear program.

LINK 1

LINK 2

Sadly, there are no stock market predictions.

**Kyobanim** · 04-19-2009, 20:42

I saw that guy on the Science Channel a while back. His predictions were pretty accurate. Very interesting stuff.

MILON · 04-19-2009, 21:06

I just saw Mr. Bueno de Mesquita on the History channel tonight actually. The show was comparing him to Nostradamus. Interesting show.

http://www.history.com/shows.do?acti...isodeId=428212

Go Devil · 04-20-2009, 05:21

Thank you NMAP,

What I found most interesting in Mr. Bueno de Mesquitas talk is stressed at 16:47 in the link that NMAP provided.

At 17:50 in the link, I looked in the mirror and noticed that my tinfoil hat had increased in size.

I would like to see their predictions on the American populace.

GreenSalsa · 04-20-2009, 06:24

Thanks for the link--I will review it a little later.

Game theory is one of the tools they use to teach us here, at Naval Postgraduate School. In fact, they brought John Nash (man behind the movie "A Beautiful Mind") here to talk to us. I found the subject interesting and nearly wrote my thesis on it.

In essence, it takes seemingly "fuzzy" choices and quantifies them in such a manner that makes it possible to determine if it is best to move first, second, make threats, promises, or not play at all.

Really interesting stuff.

Warrior-Mentor · 04-20-2009, 20:50

Thanks for the POSTS!

I considered going to TED this year...now I'm kicking myself for not going....