Be Prepared

[Gypsy]

Originally Posted by echoes

2. Have a back-up phone, if you are like me and connect the home phone though the cable company...Hint: When IT goes out, so does the phone.
3
Holly

That is exactly why I refuse to bundle my services. Especially since it seems Comcast loses service if one sneezes too hard.

Glad you survived the storm, luckily it missed us for the most part.

Originally Posted by Pete

Holly/All;

I was raised in the UP and learned at an early age to turn off everything before you shut off your car in the winter. On a real cold morning if you have everything on high and turned the key through the Acc. position you could drain it just enough to be stuck.

On another note on this subject. If you shut off your car but leave the wipers "On" during an ice or snow storm the blades can freeze to the windshield. When you jump in the car to turn it on so it can warm up while you clean off the ice you can blow the fuze to the wipers.

Some of those fuze boxes are at the darndest angle down there near the floorboard.

Pete

A power down, extra fuze, flashlight plug.

Many moons ago when my dad taught me to drive, he expressed the exact same points. Good advice all around.

[echoes]

Originally Posted by Gypsy

That is exactly why I refuse to bundle my services. Especially since it seems Comcast loses service if one sneezes too hard.

Glad you survived the storm, luckily it missed us for the most part.

Gypsy,

It is so true about the "bundled services." Cox practically has a monopoly here, but I am switching my phone back to AT&T. Funnier still is that even though my apt. has power...still not cable/phone/net.
(Staying with my sis right now.)

I hope your AO continues with its good fortune...I wouldn't wish this war-zone aftermath on anyone I know...and here comes another storm.

EDIT to add: Also, there is nothing like the sound of a "chainsaw symphony" to lull one to sleep..we should cut a demo!

Holly

[warrottjr]

As an old commo maintenance warrant (256A), I can assure you that bundled services do not meet the Army's standards for continutity of operations (COOP). I have a cable modem with land line dial-up for backup. If the land line goes out, I can still get out using Net2Phone.

[The Reaper]

I have bundled service, and figure that a UPS on the modem, a couple of cells, a linesman's phone, some CB and FRS radios should be adequate for PACE.

The hardlines will only be good as long as the lines are up, and the batteries and/or generator at the local switching office lasts.

Don't overly rely on any one means of support.

TR

[echoes]

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Don't overly rely on any one means of support.
TR

So true Sir.

Honestly, the advice given in this thread is without a pricetag. Invaluable for anyone IMHO.

And Gypsy... Hope you are okay now that this storm is headed to your AO.

Holly

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by mugwump

Yikes. I actually put the text together a while back and just got around to posting it (I've got trunking-scanner and comms ones in the queue that need cleanup and posting, too.) I'll check, but I didn't pay any $13.

Shipping ripoffs are real pet peeve of mine. They must have 60" plasmas in their personal yurts.

ETA: They say they had to raise shipping to pass through increased charges due to the box size needed for the filter plus padding (the filter is very brittle). He knows they're losing sales, but won't budge. The filter is about the size of a roll of toilet paper; seems fishy but then who knows...

Well, it looked so neat that I bought the "special packaging" story and ordered one. $19.95 of product in $13 shipping.

The box is plain cardboard, approx. 10"x10"x7.5" deep. Weight less than 3 pounds. Packaging consisted of roughly 8 feet of crumpled brown paper, with the sock and spigot tossed in. The filter itself was in bubble wrap in a white cardboard box 4"x4"x5.5" packed in the aforementioned brown paper. Sent UPS Ground service.

If it cost $13 to pack and ship, they must have taken it unboxed to the most expensive Mail Boxes Etc. in town and waited with a big "Screw Me" sign.

Definitely a shipping rip-off.

No markings on any of the components, but I strongly suspect that the filter and spigot are COTs purchased in bulk in the plain commerical wrapping.

Not sure about the cost of brown paper or cardboard boxes, but the shipping itself was probably less than $7.

TR

[Peregrino]

For those of you who take a mid-long term view on preparedness here's an article sent to me by a friend. Real scientists have been waving the BS Flag at Al Gore et al. for a while now. The potential implications if this report turns out to be accurate are enormous. The one thing the NP committee got right is the social disruption caused by climate change. Food for thought - Peregrino


http://www.spaceandscience.net/id16.html



PRESS RELEASE: SSRC 1-2008

Changes in the Sun’s Surface to Bring Next Climate Change

January 2, 2008

Today, the Space and Science Research Center, (SSRC) in Orlando, Florida announces that it has confirmed the recent web announcement of NASA solar physicists that there are substantial changes occurring in the sun’s surface. The SSRC has further researched these changes and has concluded they will bring about the next climate change to one of a long lasting cold era.

Today, Director of the SSRC, John Casey has reaffirmed earlier research he led that independently discovered the sun’s changes are the result of a family of cycles that bring about climate shifts from cold climate to warm and back again.

“We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet. This is not however a unique event for the planet although it is critically important news to this and the next generations. It is but the normal sequence of alternating climate changes that has been going on for thousands of years. Further according to our research, this series of solar cycles are so predictable that they can be used to roughly forecast the next series of climate changes many decades in advance. I have verified the accuracy of these cycles’ behavior over the last 1,100 years relative to temperatures on Earth, to well over 90%.”

As to what these changes are Casey says, “The sun’s surface flows have slowed dramatically as NASA has indicated. This process of surface movement, what NASA calls the “conveyor belt” essentially sweeps up old sunspots and deposits new ones. NASA’s studies have found that when the surface movement slows down, sunspot counts drop significantly. All records of sunspot counts and other proxies of solar activity going back 6,000 years clearly validates our own findings that when we have sunspot counts lower then 50 it means only one thing - an intense cold climate, globally. NASA says the solar cycle 25, the one after the next that starts this spring will be at 50 or lower. The general opinion of the SSRC scientists is that it could begin even sooner within 3 years with the next solar cycle 24. What we are saying today is that my own research and that of the other scientists at the SSRC verifies that NASA is right about one thing – a solar cycle of 50 or lower is headed our way. With this next solar minimum predicted by NASA, what I call a “solar hibernation,” the SSRC forecasts a much colder Earth just as it has transpired before for thousands of years. If NASA is the more accurate on the schedule, then we may see even warmer temperatures before the bottom falls out. If the SSRC and other scientists around the world are correct then we have only a few years to prepare before 20-30 years of lasting and possibly dangerous cold arrive.”

When asked about what this will mean to the average person on the street, Casey was firm. “The last time this particular cycle regenerated was over 200 years ago. I call it the “Bi-Centennial Cycle” solar cycle. It took place between 1793 and 1830, the so-called Dalton Minimum, a period of extreme cold that resulted in what historian John D. Post called the ‘last great subsistence crisis.’ With that cold came massive crops losses, food riots, famine and disease. I believe this next climate change will be much stronger and has the potential to once more cause widespread crop losses globally with the resultant ill effects. The key difference for this next Bi-Centennial Cycle’s impact versus the last is that we will have over 8 billion mouths to feed in the next coldest years where as we had only 1 billion the last time. Among other effects like social and economic disruption, we are facing the real prospect of the ‘perfect storm of global food shortages’ in the next climate change. In answer to the question, everyone on the street will be affected.”

Given the importance of the next climate change Casey was asked whether the government has been notified. “Yes, as soon as my research revealed these solar cycles and the prediction of the coming cold era with the next climate change, I notified all the key offices in the Bush administration including both parties in the Senate and House science committees as well as most of the nation’s media outlets. Unfortunately, because of the intensity of coverage of the UN IPCC and man made global warming during 2007, the full story about climate change is very slow in getting told. These changes in the sun have begun. They are unstoppable. With the word finally starting to get out about the next climate change, hopefully we will have time to prepare. Right now, the newly organized SSRC is the leading independent research center in the US and possibly worldwide, that is focused on the next climate change. Some of the world’s brightest scientists, also experts in solar physics and the next climate change have joined with me. In the meantime we will do our best to spread the word along with NASA and others who can see what is about to take place for the Earth’s climate. Soon, I believe this will be recognized as the most important climate story of this century.”

More information on the Space and Science Research Center is available at: www.spaceandscience.net

The previous NASA announcement was made at:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2..._longrange.htm

January 7 Update: Responses to Press Release. Please accept our thanks for the many who have responded to the company's first release of 2008. The first ten replies strongly endorsed (9 to 1 in favor) of what the SSRC is trying to do. For those who have sent in questions about the web site and the newly started SSRC we have taken those comments and where appropirate made immediate changes to improve the web site. Everyone's assistance in making the SSRC web site better is appreciated. Keep it up!

We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet.

So, are we going to see suggestions for increasing the carbon released into the atmosphere to keep temps up?

[sofmed]

Originally Posted by Peregrino

“We today confirm the recent announcement by NASA that there are historic and important changes taking place on the sun’s surface. This will have only one outcome - a new climate change is coming that will bring an extended period of deep cold to the planet.

That'll make things a little more tolerable during my next deployment to the sandbox, unless of course it's during the winter months...bar-dah!! With my terp standing right here he says that's really the only way to spell "cold" from Arabic into English.

Going to do PT now. Only real way to keep warm right now.

[PSM]

I found this recipe a couple of years ago and gave it a try. I cut the bars into eight 125 cal. cubes. I wrapped the cubes in aluminum foil (mistake) then froze half and stored half in the pantry.

After 12 month, the remaining cubes in the pantry were still edible. (My son had used a few as snacks at school.) After 18 months a little mold was forming on the pantry batch. The frozen ones were fine.

During the first year, I used one to make a hot cereal and it was pretty good.

Like all of the “hard tack” type of rations you need lots of water, but, other than that, these little suckers are pretty tasty…and cheap.

The foil stuck to the cubes (and I don’t like aluminum chewing gum) so I now use Press ‘n Seal and flatten the cubes more like a thick cracker so that they are easier to carry in a pocket. We make these when we make jerky and store them in the freezer until we need them. We also keep some in the vehicles.

Emergency Ration Bars


3 cups rolled oats, barley, or wheat
2 1/2 cups nonfat milk powder
1/2 package citrus flavored Jello powder
1 cup sugar
2 tablespoon honey
3 tablespoon water

Preheat oven to 300 degrees.

Heat together water and honey, stir in Jello powder.

Stir dry ingredients together, stir in Jello water, and mix well. Add additional water 1 tablespoon at a time, until the mixture can be formed into two bars.

Dry in oven, wrap in foil (not the best choice) to store. Each bar is 1000 calories. May be eaten as is, or cooked in a pint of water.

Pat

[GratefulCitizen]

The recent flooding in the midwest prompted a visit to this thread.
Some of my relatives live in Cedar Falls, Iowa.

The town was well-prepared, and endured the problem well.
(My relatives live at the highest point in town, and weren't directly affected.)

News coverage has highlighted some finger-pointing concerning two 500-year floods occurring during a 15 year interval and insufficient levees.


In this thread, the topic of estimating risk was addressed a few times:

Originally Posted by The Reaper

The intent of this thread is to discuss Disaster Preparedness and assist members of PS.com with their personal disaster planning.

Disaster Analysis

Frequency of Occurrence:

• Highly likely (Near 100% probability in the next year)
• Likely (Between 10% and 100% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 10 years)
• Possible (Between 1% and 10% probability in the next year, or at least one chance in the next 100 years)
• Unlikely (Less than 1% probability in the next 100 years)

Originally Posted by mugwump

Time article on risk. I didn't know that New York was considered the second biggest insurance risk for hurricanes after Miami.

Floods, Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Wildfires, Earthquakes ... Why We Don't Prepare

mugwump

Risk-estimation can be difficult due to the misnomers used to describe the probability of a major event and the non-intuitive nature of probability.
In the case of the recent flooding, it has been called a "500-year" flood.

What does this mean?
According the the USGS: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=1963

"...a 0.2 percent chance - 1 in 500 - of happening in any given year in a particular location."

What does that mean?
How safe are we for X years to come? (not as safe as you think)

A "500-year" flood happened in 1993.
What are the odds of at least one more "500-year" flood occurring in the next 15 years?

1 - ((1-.002)^15) = 0.0296, or about 1 in 34.
In other words, the second "500-year" flood occuring in next 15 years is more likely than a person winning on their first spin at the roulette wheel.


There is a reason the Netherlands protects populated areas against a "10,000-year" flood.
Buy flood insurance if it is warranted. Don't delay preparations.

Thanks for the thread, TR.
It has given me much to consider in protecting my own clan.

[Monsoon65]

I didn't see these in this thread, but came across them a few days ago.

I was doing a search for the Gamma seals that Walton Feed sells, and I found that the Gamma Plastics makes these:

http://www.gammaplastics.com/new/vittles_vault.html

I found them at PetSmart today. They are food grade plastic, easy spin off lids, come in a bunch of different sizes and are suppose to keep pests out. They might be a pretty good deal for storing dry goods like oats or rice.

[Pete]

Lets not forget it's Hurricane Season once more.

Things will not kick up for about 30 more days but this weekend will be a good time to test run the 5Kw, check your battery supply, radio, couple of cases of bottled water, easy cook rations, etc, etc, ......

.......read through this thread.

[The Reaper]

Originally Posted by Monsoon65

I didn't see these in this thread, but came across them a few days ago.

I was doing a search for the Gamma seals that Walton Feed sells, and I found that the Gamma Plastics makes these:

http://www.gammaplastics.com/new/vittles_vault.html

I found them at PetSmart today. They are food grade plastic, easy spin off lids, come in a bunch of different sizes and are suppose to keep pests out. They might be a pretty good deal for storing dry goods like oats or rice.

I recently purchased a bunch of the Gamma Seal lids and have been very happy with them so far. They really make the 5 gallon buckets great for storage, as long as you use the Mylar bags for the contents.

This would be an excellent time to review your kit and make sure of the quantity and condition/shelf life of your gear.

As a minimum, I would want to have the following in a tuff box, storage container, bag or bags for quick grab and go situations.

The first thing to have is a plan, and a well-known one that every member is aware of. If the levee breaks, the power goes out, or the hurricane shifts at the last moment, everyone needs to know what to do, where to go, how you are getting out, what the destination is, contact info, etc.

Toss the contents of your wallet onto your local copier and burn a few sheets with the front and back of all ID, credit cards, passports, birth certificates, etc. Keep this in a secure, but quickly accessible place. I would keep several hundred dollars in small bills locked up as well. $1,000 would be better, if you can swing it.

Spare meds (see your Doc and tell him it is for travel). Make sure that your shots (and your families) are up to date as well.

First aid kit, covering trauma, illness, etc. Basically a broad selection. Make sure you know how tro use what you have. Get training if necessary.

At least one defensive weapon. If you have not fired it lately, get some ammo (scary prices) and burn a box or two, along with the nasty carry ammo you have had in the mag for the past year. Do not be surprised if it misfires, just do your clearing drill and drive on. I would have plenty of non-lethal options as well. Bring spare mags and ammo.

Sleeping bags, woobies, sheets, etc.

Tents, tarps, ponchos, or just sheet vinyl, and a bunch of 550 cord, a hammer stapler, and some duct tape.

An axe, machete, etc. Leatherman or SAK. Shovel, or E-tool. Chainsaw with fuel and oil, or a bow saw. Rope, straps, come-along, etc. Hand tools for carpentry and mechanical repair.

Fuel (I would keep a couple of cans at home). Use Sta-Bil, and rotate the stock periodically. If you leave, take at least a couple of gallong in an approved container. A couple of quarts of oil and a gallon of anti-freeze as well.

Depending on the size of your party, a Coleman stove (with fuel), Sterno, a multi-fuel stove, candles, a lantern, Chemlites, Microlights, and several flashlights (with spare bulbs and batteries).

Several collapsible water containers, Camelbacks, Nalgenes, canteens, cans, etc., and at least one gallon of fresh water per person, per day, stored at home.

Water purification, either mechanical or chemical.

Toilet paper and wet wipes. A folding chemical toilet at home, or the ability to make one.

Camp type cookware, flatware, etc.

Food (MREs, freeze dried, canned, etc.) adequate for at least one cold and one hot meal per day, per person. A couple of weeks worth, if you can. Food prices have gone wild as well lately. Probably not coming down anytime soon. Look for long shelf life. At least two weeks supply of non-perishables on hand at home. Don't forget the spices.

Plenty of soap, shampoo, hand sanitizer, and detergent. Towels.

Bug juice and sunscreen. Lots.

Cell phones, FRS/GMRS radios, laptop, ham gear, etc., with batteries. Have a commo plan and a RV/link-up plan with family members.

GPS, a home state gazetteer, and maps or an atlas with at least the surrounding states.

Spare batteries, chargers (120v. and 12 v.), etc. A solar charging panel is a nice to have item, as is an inverter.

Spare clothing, to include seasonably appropriate under and outerwear.

Make sure that your vehicle is well maintained, recently serviced, good all-season tires, reliable battery, and keep the fuel above 1/2 tank.

If you have a bike rack, or a way to carry one (or two), that is not a bad idea. Murphy is out there.

If you have pets, and plan to bring them, have them tattooed or chipped, shots up to date, and keep a close watch on them. Then bring plenty of food and extra water.

Game Boys, video player, personal audio devices, cards, a board game or two, if you wind up in a shelter, or waiting out an evacuation, you may need the diversion. Plus it is a touch of home for the kids.

Probably left some stuff off there, hope that helps everyone at least think about their preparations.

TR

[Monsoon65]

TR:

I really liked the Gamma seals, but my wife has a problem with something not being "food grade plastic" (she's a chemist with Hershey foods). I was going to get the 5 gallon containers like you, then found out about these. I'm thinking about sealing rice in maybe 2 cup packages with a food sealer, then putting them in the containers.

We're doing the review right now!