Internal Violence Splits Iraqi Insurgents

BMT (RIP) · 11-12-2005, 19:50

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/ic/2...2/115318.shtml

BMT

rubberneck · 11-12-2005, 20:35

I really hope that is right but this is at least the fourth story that has reported the infighting over the past two years. While I don't doubt that it is happening I wonder if it is an odd occurrance. I would like nothing better than to hear about the loacls turning on the AQ and hanging their burned bodies from the light posts.

Spook · 11-14-2005, 00:10

This is just my 2 cents...

I think that AQ in Iraq have overstayed there welcome in country. They're now seen by the general population as an insurgency that indiscriminately targets fellow followers of Islam, where as the other insurgencies primarily target US Mil and/or contract workers from the west...or those Iraqis supporting the new govt. I think AQ in Iraq took a huge gamble when it began to try and incite a civil war between the religious factions over there...and what we're seeing now is the negative effect of a failed attempt and the beginning decline of any support the group may have had from the indigenous people of Iraq.

If you look at their original attacks, they were initially well planned, precise and carried out against specific targets of high value, both politically and economically. Then the group seemed to slacken the leash a bit and venture off that path and strike at targets of opportunity as well as specifics. In stark contrast, it would seem as if they now use more of a carpet bombing approach to their Ops, blowing up who and whatever they can to get the medias attention and maintain a presence at the table over there.

I think they have cheapened their actions compared to how they originally came onto the scene, if I may equate it to a boxer, they started out with a game plan and in round 1 were throwing and landing well-placed jabs...keeping their opponent at a distance so as to not get hit. Round 2 we saw them begin to put up there guard and the jab faded a bit as they tried to throw some combinations, enabling them to be struck in return. Round 3 they came out swinging all over the place, landing a lot of punches but with little behind them while looking a bit weak in the kness. We all know what happens to these kinds of guys in the 4th round...they get KO'ed.

Could this be because of a fatal error in miscalculating the Iraqi's (as well as it's neighbors in the region) and it's other insurgents views on AQ in Iraq trying to encite a factional-civil war? Is AQ in Iraq being seen by Iraqis as another form of a Saddam-type of repressive regime in it's treatment of the people...killing innocent Muslim women, children and old men? Is this a sign that we're hitting AQ in Iraqs top men and crippling it's decision and planning abilities, hindering it's operational capabilities and waining Iraqi support for the group. Or is this another grab for power by a different group or coalition of insurgencies, if you will, that don't respect the tactics and decisions of militants in Iraq from across it's borders? Are we seeing the aftermath of some relations that have been strained and are now beginning to come apart within the ranks of AQ in Iraq, a small portion of the group beginning to carry out these attacks...possibly without the support of the majority of the group...a splinter cell if you will?

Whatever the reasons, this is an interesting string of events that has recently surfaced and seems a pivitol point for whomever wants after the reigns of power.

I think we're seeing a combination of all of the above, based on my own time spent in the AO and understanding of the situation in country, coupled with intel that I follow from S-3.

I'd like to know what the QPs think...?

CoLawman · 11-14-2005, 10:01

Nice use of an analogy! Seems you have put some thought into this post and I enjoyed reading it. Am also anxious to see QP thoughts on your thoughts!

rubberneck · 11-14-2005, 10:08

I get the feeling that AQ's gross misjudgement in Jordan is going to really hurt them if it hasn't already. Maybe they can blow up some weddings in Syria and Iran while they are at it.

Spook · 11-14-2005, 13:59

Rubberneck,

It's obvious that AQ chose Jordan because it is the most moderate of Middle East nations, and clearly has the closest ties to the West, politically and economically. When I say closest ties, I mean without hidden agendas.

True, it may backfire on them to an extent, but not as much as if AQ were to begin Ops in Syria/Iran, where there is general distain for the US in particular and have been very little dialogue politically between those regimes and the US.

The Jordanian govt, it's monarchy in particular, have the back of the US. Where as others in the region are more of a conditional bunch and still take into great consideration how they will appear in the eyes of other followers of the Qaran-nations. Jordan on the other hand has always said, our relationship with the US is what it is and we don't care who sees it or what they think. So, to me it is of little surprise that AQ would strike at Jordan.

As for AQ launching Ops/campaigns in Syria and/or Iran...I don't see it happening anytime soon, if even at all. But if history has taught us anything, it's that you never know what will happen next.

One thing is certain, AQ is going global in the sense that it doesn't fear reprisal or fallout of other Muslim nations when it is in the planning stages of it's Ops. They have crossed the LOD when it comes to attacks on it's own.

aricbcool · 11-14-2005, 17:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spook

As for AQ launching Ops/campaigns in Syria and/or Iran...I don't see it happening anytime soon, if even at all. But if history has taught us anything, it's that you never know what will happen next.

The only way I could see attacks happening in either country is if they suddenly try to hinder all the foreign terrorists using their borders to get into Iraq.

Thoughts?
Aric

Spook · 11-14-2005, 23:14

I agree with you Aric.

It's highly unlikely that either Syria/Iran will do ANYTHING to stop the influx of foreign insurgents crossing their borders enroute to Iraq.

Actually, I think there's a better chance of AQ laying down there weapons and taking up origami, as oppossed to Syria/Iran monitoring the border of Iraq.

CoLawman · 11-15-2005, 00:44

http://people-press.org/reports/disp...3?ReportID=206

I know this is a dated poll but it shows the Jordanians opinions on suicide bombers against US troops as justifiable. 70 percent felt it was justifiable. As a side note......70 percent of Jordanians felt Iraq would be worse off without Saddam.

**The Reaper** · 11-15-2005, 08:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoLawman

http://people-press.org/reports/disp...3?ReportID=206

I know this is a dated poll but it shows the Jordanians opinions on suicide bombers against US troops as justifiable. 70 percent felt it was justifiable. As a side note......70 percent of Jordanians felt Iraq would be worse off without Saddam.

Over half of the population of Jordan is Palestinian.

That might explain a large part of that statistic.

Be critical in your analysis and always look for root causes.

TR

CoLawman · 11-15-2005, 13:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Reaper

Over half of the population of Jordan is Palestinian.

That might explain a large part of that statistic.

Be critical in your analysis and always look for root causes.

TR

No argument with the Palestinian factor. In this instance searching for root causes would boggle the mind. Palestinians, Islamofacists, poor, uneducated, unemployed and disenfranchised all lead to the results in that poll. The point being, the lack of difference in public opinion, between Syria and Jordan populace, is the governments attitude toward the US. As it specifically relates to this thread

**The Reaper** · 11-15-2005, 15:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoLawman

No argument with the Palestinian factor. In this instance searching for root causes would boggle the mind. Palestinians, Islamofacists, poor, uneducated, unemployed and disenfranchised all lead to the results in that poll. The point being, the lack of difference in public opinion, between Syria and Jordan populace, is the governments attitude toward the US. As it specifically relates to this thread

In the Islamic World, the views of the US by the governments of Syria and Jordan are about as far apart as you can get.

The King of Jordan is very pro-US. President: Bashar Al-Assad of Syria is clearly not.

The views of the people are influenced by a number of factors, including the media.

TR

CoLawman · 11-15-2005, 15:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Reaper

In the Islamic World, the views of the US by the governments of Syria and Jordan are about as far apart as you can get.

The King of Jordan is very pro-US. President: Bashar Al-Assad of Syria is clearly not.

TR

Exactly what my post reflects! The populace of these two nations share the same opinion, but the governments are on different ends of the spectrum. Oops just re read my previous post. Poorly worded and confusing. My apologies. Anyway, I agree with you completely, even though my post does not reflect it: