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A possible implication of the new health care laws
As matters stand, we do not know what the Senate bills says, nor can we imagine what will emerge from Reconciliation. It seems likely the costs will be high, and the complexity may be such that we cannot calculate the costs at this time.
That said, I came across a paper by Tainter...(yes, I hear that groan)...it's about 11 pages long, with another couple pages of references. If you want to see what we're heading into, I think it may offer a glimpse.
Here's a quote to whet the appetite: (page 96 - the sixth page in the article)
The Roman government was financed by agricultural taxes that barely sufficed for ordinary administration. When extraordinary expenses arose, typically during wars, the precious metals on hand frequently were insufficient. Facing the costs of war on the eastern frontier with Parthia and rebuilding Rome after the Great Fire, Nero began in 64 AD a policy that later emperors found irresistible. He debased the primary silver coin, the denarius, reducing the alloy from 98 to 93% silver. It was the first step down a slope that resulted two centuries later in a currency that was worthless and a government that was insolvent (Fig. 5).
NMAP: Notice how we, too, have extraordinary expenses. Our taxes do not cover our costs, even during normal times. And our currency seems to show signs of decline.
In the half-century from 235 to 284 the empire nearly came to an end. There were foreign and civil wars almost without interruption. The period witnessed 26 legitimate emperors and perhaps 50 usurpers. Cities were sacked and frontier provinces devastated. The empire shrank in the 260s to Italy, the Balkans, and North Africa. By prodigious effort the empire survived the crisis, but it emerged at the turn of the fourth century AD as a very different organization.
NMAP: Similar to the current financial meltdown? Time will tell.
In response to the crises, the emperors Diocletian and Constantine, in the late third and early fourth centuries, designed a government that was larger, more complex, and more highly organized. They doubled the size of the army. To pay for this the government taxed its citizens more heavily, conscripted their labor, and dictated their occupations. Villages were responsible for the taxes on their members, and one village could even be held liable for another. Despite several monetary reforms a stable currency could not be found (Fig. 6). As masses of worthless coins were produced, prices rose higher and higher. Money changers in the east would not convert imperial currency, and the government refused to accept its own coins for taxes.
NMAP: Rome doubled its army. While the current administration may not do that, it does appear determined to increase other costs. In addition, it is possible that geopolitical developments might require increased defense spending just as costs from domestic programs increase - thus leading to a duplicate of Rome's situation.
So...if you're so inclined...you might want to read the attachment.
My interpretation: Much higher taxes, substantial drop in the value of the dollar, possible economic coercion to increase the number of doctors with a resulting decline in the quality of medical care.
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