Economy - NorCal Job Market

[Richard]

An interesting piece in today's Sacramento Bee on the 20 toughest job markets in Norhtern California.

http://www.sacbee.com/1098/story/1926578.html

Modesto (#20 @ 13.4%) to Watsonville (#1 @ 24%).

I'm sure there are other areas hitting some of those same numbers; we're currently at 6.7% in Texas.

Richard's $.02

[greenberetTFS]

Originally Posted by Richard

An interesting piece in today's Sacramento Bee on the 20 toughest job markets in Norhtern California.

http://www.sacbee.com/1098/story/1926578.html

Modesto (#20 @ 13.4%) to Watsonville (#1 @ 24%).

I'm sure there are other areas hitting some of those same numbers; we're currently at 6.7% in Texas.

Richard's $.02

Richard,

Funny thing your mentioning that,because in the Mississippi coastal area it's 3rd in the nation for jobless claims.... And,you know what,we don't have a minimum wage requirement in our state and people like myself working in security are making only $8.00/hr,and required to carry a weapon ... It's great to have a job in this economy,but I've been here 10 years now and that's the highest I'll get for the next 5 years per my boss who signed a 5 year contract that froze our pay for the next 5 years...... Sure if I don't like it you may say get another job,but again where?????

GB TFS

[nmap]

Interesting trends.

Snarky comment: Gee, I wonder how the housing market will recover when people keep losing their job?

In all seriousness, the ongoing decay of employment undercuts all efforts to revitalize the economy. The housing market will continue to decline, as will the securities that are based on home mortgages. Perhaps even more importantly, defaults on credit cards will further undermine bank capitalization.

But these are merely the surface. Looking deeper, the U.S. economy depends on consumer spending. With unemployment continuing to increase, with housing still in decline, with banks becoming less sanguine about their credit card customers, there is little reason to suppose the consumer can or will start spending. It may be 101, but there is a cold wind blowing.

greenberetTFS: Sir, if there is any way you and your company can get into the residential monitored burglar alarm business, I truly believe you would find the effort worthwhile. In Texas, a licensed security firm can easily add alarms to their activities, and the increase in overhead is negligible. Perhaps your locale is similar?

[JJ_BPK]

Down here in the Conch Republic we are modestly prosperous.

April had us at 5.8%,
Florida is floating around 9.6%.
FLAGLER county was 14.4%

Between the Touristas and Agro we have a large seasonal swing.

BUT, the housing market is suffering. My neighbor sold her house 3 yrs ago at 645K to a Miami Doctor. It's now a short sale at 321K.

[mojaveman]

When it comes to joblessness NorCal's always worse than Socal because of the difference in the amount of industry/commerce but it's pretty bad down here too. The Inland Empire is suffering an unemployment rate of over 13%. The only time that I can remember it being this bad was during the recession that we had in the early 80s.

A few weeks ago a respectable looking guy approached me in the parking lot at work as I was walking in and told me that he was in desperate need of work. I guess he was losing his house and had a family to feed. I told him that we had just laid a few people off and weren't looking for anyone. I watched him as he walked down the street to the next business and went inside. I really felt sorry for the man and also thankful that I am still employed.

[ZonieDiver]

Well, the Bahamas is dying! Exuma - where I "vacationed" - has serious unemployment - a major resort closed, cancelling out 500 jobs on an island with about 4,000 people. Their economy is almost totally dependent upon ours - and they are not hopeful.

[Richard]

Doesn't look as if this thing is quite over yet...especially out on the left coast.

California's unemployment rate climbed to 11.5 percent in May, the highest in modern record-keeping, the California Employment Development Department reported today. Sacramento County unemployment was at 11.1 percent in May, up from April's 10.8 percent.

http://www.sacbee.com/1089/story/1960863.html

Richard's $.02

[nmap]

Over?

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Forty-eight states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate increases in May, the government reported Friday. One state registered a rate decrease, and one state had no rate change.

LINK

June 19 (Bloomberg) -- More than one-quarter of American states now have unemployment rates higher than 10 percent, and all but two saw a further job-market deterioration in May.

Tennessee and Indiana joined the rank of states, now 13, that have jobless rates exceeding 10 percent, and eight states - - including California, Florida and Georgia -- reached their highest level of joblessness in May since records began in 1976, the Labor Department reported today in Washington.


LINK

We've had a bear market rally - part of the much ballyhooed green shoots. But that's all it is. It is just a temporary and transitory rally.

There is a very good chance the market will break down through the mid-October time frame. Still worse, the ongoing efforts by the treasury to sell bonds is driving interest rates up, and hence is forcing housing prices down again. One might also ask the rhetorical question: How will housing (and thus the bank lending portfolios) improve when that many people are out of work?

Keep your eye on the Dow. There is a real risk we will go below Dow 6550 - and if the Transports confirm and go below about 2140, we are likely to get considerably worse. Those averages may sometimes seem arcane, but they do a pretty good job of taking the temperature of the economy - and, perhaps, giving us a cloudy, cracked crystal ball to see some hints of the future.

My opinion: we'll see unemployment get worse. Quite a lot worse.

[zuluzerosix]

I am in Mendocino County. We are pretty beat up also. My wife works for a youth center that has been open since 1901. It was announced recently that the place is closing. 102 people in a town of 15K are losing their jobs. The kids are being sent to the youth authority and other homes.

Some of the kids are mental health, others have one foot in prison as this youth center was their last chance. There are a few kids who are refugees from other countries who have no where to go; and the State can not find any one who will foster them. One little girl (13 years old) can not go to sleep at night unless she is in the sitting position, with the lights on and a female guard out side her open door. I guess a rape camp will do that to you.

She is going to the youth authority too, along with the underage sexual predators. There is just no money for these kids to get what they need. Except prison. The first thing that went a few weeks ago was their meds. So all the mental health kids are going off to boot camp with no meds.

The State can't find the money to take care of the kids in it's charge.

Good work Kalifornia.

So......Because there is no money and all these folks are out of jobs-my wife will get unemployment and vocational rehab for up to 18 months. She has reenrolled in the nursing program she had to quit when she had to go to work because my income dropped due to the state of the automotive industry.
Is somehting wrong here???

In California, having no money will cost the Tax Payers ....more money!

But we will take it. I can't wait until she graduates. Then we are off back to the Texas Motherland, where zero tolerance means zero tolerance!

[nmap]

Green shoots? No...

The following link considers railroad and truck transportation. Volume is down a lot. This suggests that we have not yet seen any recovery in economic activity.

LINK

[Richard]

The following link considers railroad and truck transportation. Volume is down a lot.

My middle son is 26, single and drives a long-haul 18-wheeler for Central Refrigerated Services - he's on the road 10 hrs/day x 7 d/wk cris-crossing the country - he'll make six figures this year - he has to periodically ask for time off.

Richard's $.02

[alright4u]

Originally Posted by nmap

Interesting trends.

Snarky comment: Gee, I wonder how the housing market will recover when people keep losing their job?

In all seriousness, the ongoing decay of employment undercuts all efforts to revitalize the economy. The housing market will continue to decline, as will the securities that are based on home mortgages. Perhaps even more importantly, defaults on credit cards will further undermine bank capitalization.

But these are merely the surface. Looking deeper, the U.S. economy depends on consumer spending. With unemployment continuing to increase, with housing still in decline, with banks becoming less sanguine about their credit card customers, there is little reason to suppose the consumer can or will start spending. It may be 101, but there is a cold wind blowing.

greenberetTFS: Sir, if there is any way you and your company can get into the residential monitored burglar alarm business, I truly believe you would find the effort worthwhile. In Texas, a licensed security firm can easily add alarms to their activities, and the increase in overhead is negligible. Perhaps your locale is similar?

Yes, it is Econ 101, but; it is fact. When one kills all incentives for small business, jobs will be at at premium with low wages as the owner can only afford so much. We seem to have some who think they can spend their way out of debt. MRC still ='s MRP.

On a side note, I am running into more folks cruising grocery store parking lots, Wallmart supercenters, etc. begging for money. I have plenty of work that needs to be done, but; it seems we have generation or so that refuses to work.

I think we have reached the point where the voters decided to vote themselves all the goodies from the public treasury. I hope I am wrong.

[Pete]

[QUOTE=alright4u;270439]....On a side note, I am running into more folks cruising grocery store parking lots, Wallmart supercenters, etc. begging for money. I have plenty of work that needs to be done, but; it seems we have generation or so that refuses to work.........QUOTE]

Work? That is work. Out on the corner, light cycle 3 minutes, three cars per cycle shell out $1 per, times 8 hours equals $480 all tax free. OK he's lazy and only puts in 4 hours. Thats still $240 a day tax free.

Edited to add: Some might wonder where I come up with those numbers.

In the first place every now and again there is a newspaper story about panhandlers. Once story was about a family in the mid-west living in a free hotel room while they took turns hitting the corners. They were pulling in over $400 a day.

Second, there are a number of panhandlers in the Fayetteville area, mostly around the Mall and the north end of the MLK Loop. I run through those areas many times during the week and see them at "work". Keeping a rough count in my head I'd say they average three cars a stop. Little change, mostly a single bill. I'll say a $1 to be on the conservative side.

All of you keep count in your neck of the woods and see if the average holds.

[alright4u]

What is the fine for panhandling in Fayetteville? Is there a number to call the police? I ask as they will arrest you here.

[Pete]

Originally Posted by alright4u

What is the fine for panhandling in Fayetteville? Is there a number to call the police? I ask as they will arrest you here.

Here is Fayetteville's Guide to Panhandling.

http://police.ci.fayetteville.nc.us/...dlingGuide.pdf

Not many teeth.