Good News Stories

[The Reaper]

Yesterday's good news got me thinking.

Why not post the success stories here?

First one follows.

This war will not be one by bullets alone. Hearts and minds, people.

TR

Los Angeles Times
February 22, 2008

U.S. 'Micro-Loan' Effort Yields Big Results In Iraqi Province

Small amounts help Anbar entrepreneurs build up businesses.

By Tony Perry, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

HUSAYBAH, IRAQ —Here in western Iraq on the border with Syria, there are signs of recovery amid wreckage left from the chaos brought by insurgents in Husaybah and such major battleground cities as Fallouja and Ramadi.

Although the central government in Baghdad and much of this war-torn nation is beset by sectarian and geographic rivalries, the U.S. government's foreign-aid program efforts here are quietly showing what a little money can do. And, while still in their infancy, these efforts are catching on.

The war still plagues the nation, and recovery is a long way off. But consider the success that authorities are having in Husaybah and in all of Anbar province.

Al'laur Abd Mottar, 50, had a dream of starting a business to support his wife and eight children. He would buy and sell scrap iron, a material much in demand as residents seek to rebuild homes and businesses damaged by fighting between U.S. Marines and insurgents.

But he had no money. The one bank in town that lends money had been disrupted by the prolonged fight. Even if the bank was up and running, a loan to a penniless dreamer without collateral would not have been a priority.

In November, Mottar got a $3,000 loan from a program underwritten by the U.S. Agency for International Development that is bringing the "micro-loan" concept to war-ravaged Anbar west of Baghdad.

The office in Husaybah was the first in Anbar, reinforcing a view held by Iraqis and Americans that innovations start here and then move east toward the provincial capital of Ramadi. The tribal sheiks here were the first to turn against the insurgency and side with the U.S. "In Anbar, the sun rises in the West," Marine Col. Stacy Clardy said.

With his loan, Mottar began buying and selling scrap metal. His start-up business, run from his house, is showing a profit.

Husaybah is the largest city in the sprawling Al Qaim region along the Syrian border. It has made 210 loans totaling $501,250 for business development, renovation of homes and businesses, and vehicle repairs.

A committee appointed by Mayor Farhan Fetekhan Farhan oversees applications. The rules are loose -- the only prohibited uses are the purchase of land, gold and cars.

So far, 96% of the loans have been repaid in full or are in the process of being repaid, program officials said this month. The money is meant as a revolving fund, with money lent to new borrowers once older borrowers make their payments.

Micro-financing may be new to Iraq, but USAID has similar programs around the globe. It works best, said Gary Robbins, a USAID representative in Anbar, "when there are middle-class entrepreneurs who have business savvy but do not have access to capital."

That could be a description of Sahah Hamed Saleh, owner of a tire repair and balancing shop just off the main street of Husaybah. He borrowed $4,000 to get a computer program that allows him to evaluate where a tire needs balancing. Saleh backed up the investment with some advertising -- a few hand-painted signs. Business picked up almost immediately. "We're very busy," said Salah Shehab Hamad, his cousin.

Historically, Iraq has had a large and industrious merchant class, but the economy was devastated by decades of war, corruption, Baathist Party centralized planning and U.S.-led trade sanctions. Even as Marines rolled into Baghdad in 2003, the Iraqi economy appeared on the verge of collapse.

Fighting between Marines and insurgents for control along the border only deepened the economic trough for average Iraqis. But the alliance between Marines and Sunni tribal sheiks largely thwarted the insurgency here by late 2006.

In Husaybah, businesses reopened along the once-dormant main street. Late last year, a port of entry opened, allowing goods to flow between Iraq and Syria.

To oversee the micro-loan program, USAID turned to the Louis Berger Group, an international consulting firm based in Morristown, N.J. Supervision of the micro-loans is only a small part of a $154-million contract between USAID and the firm to promote economic growth in all 18 provinces.

To overcome strictures in the Koran against charging interest, local imams provided a "religious letter" of permission. Technically, the money is not a loan; it's a kind of partnership, with the borrower repaying his "partners." It was a price Mottar and others were willing to pay. "Now I have a chance to support my family," he said. "Before, I had nothing."

Before an overall economic recovery can be achieved, big-ticket projects beyond the reach of micro-loans will be needed, officials said.

Once-thriving farmland lies fallow because of a lack of electricity and an irrigation system, both destroyed in the fighting. Gasoline and heating oil are available nearly exclusively through the black market.

Still, the micro-loans are seen as grass-roots job creation, Robbins said. "Each loan helps create maybe one, two jobs, but it's a beginning."

[afchic]

We were just talking about this in my econ class. Great story, thanks for posting.

[Ret10Echo]

Trying to remember who it was exactly, but I think it was the Dutch. They had a program in B.H. that would give a family cash to rebuild. They had inspectors go out to verify the work, and if all was well another increment would be provided.

The U.N.H.C.R. weenies were losing their minds.....it was hilarious.

Their default rate was in the single digits.

[Gypsy]

I receive a newsletter from an organization named Families United, their mission is to support the Troops and their Missions.

Thought this would be a great story for this thread...

NEWS FROM THE FRONT

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q...jNlMmY0NTQzMWQ

Pete Hegseth of Vets for Freedom is in Iraq and sent the following message today:



A Neighborhood, Reborn
Seeing Baghdad again, for the first time.

By Pete Hegseth

Al Doura, Baghdad -- As I step out of the humvee into the street, I have two facts in mind: I've been here before; and this time, I don't have a weapon.

Recalling the tension of my first patrol in this neighborhood as a platoon leader, my five senses are sharp. The dusty road below greets my boots, some of the smells are eerily familiar, and the sound of idling humvees is my only comfort. My head swivels to scan the street. My hands are naked without an M-4, so I find the nearest soldier.

Soon -- as a young child approaches -- the wary familiarity gives way to fascination. I may be in the same geographic location, but I'm not in the same neighborhood. This is not Al Doura, at least not as I knew it. Where did all these people and shops come from? Where is all the trash, and the open sewage? Where is the fear -- the deep-seated fear?

Children approach, as they usually do -- but today it's not just children. Young men walk up, initiating conversation. Women cross the street between our humvees, seemingly unaware of the GIs. The people are friendly, but not assertively so. Our presence is natural, almost routine. My inner tension clashes with the calm scene unfolding around me.

I take a few steps into the middle of an intersection with a clear view in all directions. Along the main thoroughfare, my immediate surroundings are replicated: block after block of shops and bustling residents. The side streets that I remember as sewage-clogged gutters are clean and teeming with construction and activity.

This is not Al Doura. The Al Doura I knew was the heart of sectarian violence, with daily body counts in the dozens. As I keep walking, I pass a busy car wash, and then a fitness center where young men pump iron and tear-outs of Muscle Fitness adorn the walls. We pass two new playgrounds, where boys clamber up and down slides and bea utiful little girls play with dolls. A cart vendor offers me a bag of freshly popped popcorn -- but I decline and have some falafel instead.

Increasingly relaxed and curious, I duck into side streets. One leads me to a buzzing recreation center, where soldiers are challenged to a game of pool. In the next room, teenage boys fight it out in the computer game "Medal of Honor" (which my little brother plays constantly). The World War II battle simulator heats up as we enter: the "German" I'm watching turns a virtual corner and lobs a grenade at an "American." We all burst out laughing. That's as much hostility as my patrol would face this day.

The entire time, we have only nominal security. It was disconcerting at first -- I would never have come here unarmed two years ago -- but the commander I'm walking with eases my concerns: the people are our security. The neighborhood residents trust the Americans, as well as the "Sons of Iraq" (or CLCs, a s the Army calls them: Concerned Local Citizens) -- local residents who provide security for the neighborhood. In a place where al-Qaeda dominated just eight months ago, today they couldn't buy a bag of popcorn.

The unit's commander -- Lieutenant Colonel James Crider -- clarifies the new situation in Doura, "We made a deliberate attempt to engage the people and soon enough, when they realized we weren't going anywhere, that's when they started talking to us."

Beginning in June, while bullets were still flying, Crider's squadron held sit-down meetings with every family in Doura, walking house-to-house over the course of several months to forge personal relationships. This approach -- combined with a 24/7 presence in the neighborhoods -- eventually crippled al-Qaeda. LTC Crider notes, "Al-Qaeda had no idea who was ratting them out, because we went into every house." The relationships they fostered from these meetings provided intelligence that allowed the unit t o detain al-Qaeda members who were thriving on American ignorance and hiding in plain sight. One of Crider's lieutenants adds, "It was a battle of intel -- and we won."

These gains, however, were costly. In their first 30 days in Doura, the unit was attacked over 50 times. On the very streets we're walking today, LTC Crider has lost nine good men, with dozens more injured. But the unit persisted -- honoring the sacrifices of their brethren -- and has not been attacked in their sector since September 27. As compelling testimony to the unit's dedication to the task, LTC Crider's squadron had the highest reenlistment rate in all of Baghdad in 2007, exceeding their goal by over 500 percent.

As we walk, we see scars of the neighborhood's violent recent past -- bombed-out homes pepper the area and bullet-sprayed walls are everywhere. Some power wires dangle out of place. All is not perfect -- but signs o f life keep finding us. As we reach the end of the block, three young males approach, all looking for work and eager to join the "Sons of Iraq." This is typical, Crider informs me, and the unit jots down their names.

LTC Crider and his soldiers understand that the security gains, though real, are still tenuous -- if alternatives to insurgency are not soon in place. The unit has given out hundreds of business micro-loans, many of which were used for street-front stores. They fund only local contractors, who hire local workers to pick up trash, fix sewage pipes, and provide electricity. The people of Doura themselves are rebuilding Doura -- with the U.S. Army's help.

Before going to lunch with a local leader, I stop and talk with Omar, the owner of a small grocery. He's clean-shaven, well dressed, and roughly my age. He moved to Doura about two years ago (when my unit was here), after being displaced from his town by the Mahdi Army.

I ask him why hadn't he joined al-Qaeda either to expel Americans or retaliate against the Shia. He replied, "Because al-Qaeda kills civilians, including my aunt and three cousins." His uncle was a local contractor -- an offense to al-Qaeda, punishable by the killing of his wife and daughters. Omar speaks candidly of the U.S. presence here: "Americans have made many mistakes, but now they are fixing them. . . . If Americans leave now, it will be a disaster."

The most telling aspect of our conversation is where it takes place -- on the street, out in the open, and among Omar's fellow residents. He is not afraid, and vows to fight al-Qaeda if they ever return. I ask him why, of all places, he decided to move to Doura at the height of the violence here. "Because they are good people," he answers.

It was then that I realized I had never really been to this place -- I just thought I had. This is the real Al Doura, a neighborhood and a people reborn -- thanks to the bravery and sacrifice of LTC Crider and his men. Today, I saw Al Doura for the first time.

-- Captain Pete Hegseth , who served in Iraq with the 101st Airborne Division from 2005 to 2006, is executive director of Vets for Freedom. He's back in Iraq for the next week to cover the surge for NRO.

[swpa19]

T.R./Gypsy: Great articles. You just dont see enough of the good things this country does in Astan and Iraq. To offer a people hope and a way of betterment is small payment for a potential ally.

[The Reaper]

Hearts and minds, baby.

Could it be that more of the Arab world, even through the rose colored reporting of the regional media like Al Jazerra, is seeing AQ as the people of Iraq did?

Is it even possible to consider that ten or twenty years from now, if we continue to build on our success, that history might view our liberations of Iraq and Afghanistan and our dedication to staying the course there as a key stand in time that defeated Islamofacism? Stranger things have happened.

TR

Financial Times
March 5, 2008

Al-Qaeda Is Losing The War Of Minds

By Peter Wehner

The US “surge” in Iraq has been so manifestly successful that no serious person can deny that gains have been made. Even Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have (grudgingly) conceded progress. Yet both Mrs Clinton and Mr Obama are quick to add that progress has been purely on the military side and that those gains are ephemeral. This fits with their broader narrative – that the war has been a disaster on every front.

During a recent Democratic debate, for example, Mr Obama declared: “We are seeing al-Qaeda stronger now than at any time since 2001.” Mrs Clinton says President George W. Bush’s policies in Iraq have “emboldened our enemies”. We should leave Iraq, she says, so we can better focus on the threat of al-Qaeda.

In fact, in large measure because of what is unfolding in Iraq, the tide within the Islamic world is beginning to run strongly against al-Qaeda – and this, in turn, may be the single most important ideological development in recent years.

In November 2007 Sayyid Imam al-Sharif (“Dr Fadl”) published his book, Rationalizations on Jihad in Egypt and the World, in serialised form. Mr Sharif, who is Egyptian, argues that the use of violence to overthrow Islamic governments is religiously unlawful and practically harmful. He also recommends the formation of a special Islamic court to try Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s number two and its ideological leader, and calls the attacks on September 11 2001 a “catastrophe for all Muslims”.

Mr Sharif’s words are significant because he was once a mentor to Mr Zawahiri. Mr Sharif, who wrote the book in a Cairo prison, is “a living legend within the global jihadist movement”, according to Jarret Brachman, a terrorism expert.

Another important event occurred in October 2007, when Sheikh Abd Al-‘Aziz bin Abdallah Aal Al-Sheikh, the highest religious authority in Saudi Arabia, issued a fatwa prohibiting Saudi youth from engaging in jihad abroad. It states: “I urge my brothers the ulama [the top class of Muslim clergy] to clarify the truth to the public . . . to warn [youth] of the consequences of being drawn to arbitrary opinions and [religious] zeal that is not based on religious knowledge.” The target of the fatwa is obvious: Mr bin Laden.

A month earlier Sheikh Salman al-Awdah, an influential Saudi cleric whom Mr bin Laden once lionised, wrote an “open letter” condemning Mr bin Laden. “Brother Osama, how much blood has been spilt? How many innocents among children, elderly, the weak, and women have been killed and made homeless in the name of al-Qaeda?” Sheikh Awdah wrote. “The ruin of an entire people, as is happening in Afghanistan and Iraq . . . cannot make Muslims happy.”

These criticisms by prominent voices within the jihadist movement should be seen in the context of an even more significant development: the “Anbar Awakening” now spreading throughout Iraq. Just 18 months ago Anbar province was the stronghold of al-Qaeda in Iraq; today it is known as the birthplace of an Iraqi and Islamic grass-roots uprising against al-Qaeda as an organisation and bin Ladenism as an ideology. It is an extraordinary transformation: Iraqis en masse siding with America, the “infidel” and a western “occupying power”, to defeat Islamic militants.

Not surprisingly, al-Qaeda’s stock is falling in much of the Arab and Islamic world. A recent survey found that in January less than a quarter of Pakistanis approved of Mr bin Laden, compared with 46 per cent last August, while backing for al-Qaeda fell from 33 per cent to 18 per cent.

According to a July 2007 report from the Pew Global Attitudes Project, “large and growing numbers of Muslims in the Middle East and elsewhere [are] rejecting Islamic extremism”. The percentage of Muslims saying suicide bombing is justified in the defence of Islam has declined in seven of the eight Arab countries where trend data are available. In Lebanon, for example, 34 per cent of Muslims say such suicide bombings are often or sometimes justified; in 2002, 74 per cent expressed this view. We are also seeing large drops in support for Mr bin Laden. These have occurred since the Iraq war began.

Since General David Petraeus put in place his counter-insurgency strategy early last year, al-Qaeda has been dealt punishing military blows. Iraqis continue to turn against al-Qaeda and so does more of the Arab and Muslim world. In the past half-year an important new front, led by prominent Islamic clerics, has been opened. Militarily, ideologically and in terms of popular support, these are bad days for Mr bin Laden and his jihadist jackals.

If we continue to build on these developments, the Iraq war, once thought to be a colossal failure, could turn out be a positive and even a pivotal event in our struggle against militant Islam. Having paid a high cost in blood and treasure and having embraced the wrong strategy for far too long, we stayed in the fight, proving that America was not the “weak horse” Mr bin Laden believed it to be. Having stayed in the fight, we may prevail in it. The best way to subvert the appeal of bin Ladenism is to defeat those who take up the sword in its name.

We are a long way from winning in Iraq. It remains a traumatised nation and the progress made can be lost. But the trajectory of events is at last in our favour and a good outcome is within our grasp. If we succeed it will have enormously positive effects beyond Iraq.

[The Reaper]

Los Angeles Times
March 21, 2008

War-Ravaged Iraq City 'Alive Again'

Fallouja has been rebuilt since the 2004 battles. Stores again are doing a brisk business, and the population is nearly back up to 300,000.

By Tony Perry, Time Staff Writer

FALLOUJA, IRAQ — The one-lane bridge over the Euphrates River where a mob hung the charred bodies of slain Americans four years ago is now a focal point in the revitalization of this war-ravaged city.

The Iraqi government and the U.S. plan to widen the pedestrian pathways on either side of the bridge so shoppers can stream into Fallouja's western neighborhood and buy food, clothing and other goods from stores that again line the streets of a city once given up for dead.

The comeback of Fallouja, the site of two major battles between Marines and insurgents in 2004, surprises even the most optimistic U.S. planners.

"It continues to outpace all expectations," said Navy Capt. John Dal Santo, part of a State Department-funded effort called the Provincial Reconstruction Team for Fallouja.

City Council leader Sheik Hamed Ahmed said that he was pleased with the city's progress but that he needed more generators for his neighborhood. Ahmed's three predecessors were assassinated by insurgents, but he has refused to back down.

"Fallouja is alive again," he said.

Restaurants, bakeries, photo shops, tire stores, Internet cafes, a body-building studio and other businesses line the avenues and side streets. BMWs share lanes with donkey carts on congested thoroughfares.

The Anbar provincial government and the central government in Baghdad have poured tens of millions of dollars into street repair, rubble removal and school reconstruction. The governor has assigned what Americans might call ward heelers to tend to the needs of the city's nine districts.

In 2004, Fallouja was a major base for the emerging Sunni Arab insurgency. On March 31 of that year, it was also the site of one of the most macabre images since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq: young Iraqi men dancing in glee as the burned remains of American private security workers hung from the aging bridge.

Most civilians fled the city before the second Marine assault, in November 2004. And there are still signs of the fierce battles: crumpled buildings, downed power lines and bullet-riddled homes.

Other problems also remain: an undersized police department; shortages of electricity, clean water and gasoline; high unemployment; and a small but resistant cadre of insurgents waiting to launch a counterattack.

Yet Fallouja is vibrant again, and its population has climbed back close to its pre-assault level of about 300,000.

Police are on the streets. A new hospital is set to open this spring, funded by the U.S. and the Iraqis. Marines have removed many of the barriers and concertina wire that gave the city what one officer called the "Berlin 1945 look."

There have been soccer tournaments and art contests. And there are plans for a soft-drink bottling plant.

"Fallouja has gone through a metamorphosis -- these people want their lives back," said Lt. Col. Christopher Dowling, commander of the 3rd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment. "Fallouja has its soul back."

Several hundred Marines live side by side with Iraqi police officers in outposts across the city. In five months, Dowling's Marines have carried out 7,000 patrols in the city and its suburbs without suffering a fatality or major injury.

To ensure continued security progress, Marines conduct late-night raids several times a week after picking up intelligence about possible insurgent activities. The troops also have sought to provide employment to young Falloujans to help win their loyalty.

One of Dowling's more successful efforts has been to pay youths $10 a day to pick up trash. Many of the main streets are now among the cleanest of any city in Anbar province.

Fallouja also has a court system and judges, unlike most cities in the province, which lies west of Baghdad. Elsewhere, judges who fled the country have not returned.

"Two years ago, even after the war was over, people were stealing and hiding," Iraqi police officer Jassim Hamid Khousan said. "Now is better. God willing, if the insurgents come back, we will fight."

Haji Mohammed Hussin feels safe enough to reopen and expand his kebab restaurant, closed when the city was controlled by insurgents. He also owns a restaurant in Baghdad that remains closed, he said, because it has been confiscated by Shiite Muslim militiamen.

When Dowling stopped by to drink tea, Hussin had a request: Extend the hours at the main checkpoint so more people can come in from the suburbs for a late dinner.

"We need more people," Hussin said.

Done. The checkpoint will stay open an hour later.

An estimated 20,000 people a day stream through five checkpoints to shop or work in the city. The checkpoints are staffed by Marines, Iraqi police and an all-female contingent called the Sisters of Fallouja.

This is the second Fallouja assignment for the Camp Pendleton-based 3rd Battalion, 5th Marine Regiment. It was a lead unit in the November 2004 assault, suffering 19 fatalities. Most of the current officers and enlisted are new to the battalion.

But some are veterans from 2004, including Staff Sgt. Terrance Gant, who remembers the fight to recapture the bridge. Marines attacked insurgent strongholds from the north, south and east -- pushing west toward the bridge was one of the final objectives.

Gant visited the bridge and adjoining streets the other day and found small boys selling ice cream, a fishmonger hawking catfish, and food and trinket stores doing a brisk business.

"This is a step forward," Gant said. "It shows me my Marines didn't die in vain."

[The Reaper]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...defeat%27.html

Afghan insurgents 'on brink of defeat'
By Thomas Harding in Lashkar Gah

Last Updated: 10:31PM BST 01/06/2008

Missions by special forces and air strikes by unmanned drones have "decapitated" the Taliban and brought the war in Afghanistan to a "tipping point", the commander of British forces has said.

The new "precise, surgical" tactics have killed scores of insurgent leaders and made it extremely difficult for Pakistan-based Taliban leaders to prosecute the campaign, according to Brig Mark Carleton-Smith.

In the past two years an estimated 7,000 Taliban have been killed, the majority in southern and eastern Afghanistan. But it is the "very effective targeted decapitation operations" that have removed "several echelons of commanders".

This in turn has left the insurgents on the brink of defeat, the head of Task Force Helmand said.

"The Taliban are much weaker," he said from 16 Air Assault Brigade headquarters in Lashkar Gah.

"The tide is clearly ebbing not flowing for them. Their chain of command is disrupted and they are short of weapons and ammunition."

Last year's killing of Mullah Dadullah, the Taliban chief, most likely by the Special Boat Service, was "a seminal moment in dislocating" their operation in southern Afghanistan, said Brig Carleton-Smith, 44, who has extensive operational experience in Afghanistan and Iraq and has commanded elite Army troops.

"We have seen increasing fissures of stress through the whole organisation that has led to internecine and fratricidal strife between competing groups."

Taliban fighters are apparently becoming increasingly unpopular in Helmand, where they are reliant on the local population for food and water.

They have also been subjected to strikes by the RAF's American-made Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle and the guided Royal Artillery missile system, which have both proved a major battlefield success.

"I can therefore judge the Taliban insurgency a failure at the moment," said Brig Carleton-Smith. "We have reached the tipping point."

The task is now to regenerate the economy to win over the civilian population of Helmand, the base for 8,000 British soldiers.

Lashkar Gah, the provincial capital, appears to be a town on the cusp of an economic boom if security remains stable.

A new airport will be ready by the end of this year and a packaging factory by the end of next year.

This could enable the soil-rich "fruit basket of Afghanistan" to export its food.

Alternative crops, such as wheat or rape, could prove a greater attraction than Helmand's massive opium trade, especially as international prices continue to rise.

Much of the Taliban operation is run by Mullah Omar and to a lesser extent al-Qa'eda from their headquarters in Quetta, across the border in Pakistan.

The ability of what is known as the Quetta Shura leadership had been "hugely reduced" and its influence "increasingly marginalised", the brigadier said. Michael Ryder, the senior Foreign Office official in Helmand, agreed that intelligence assessments suggested that the Taliban had become "fractured and fragmented".

"There's a lot of suspicion from southern Taliban commanders of the agenda of Quetta Shura," he said, with the leaders trying to draw in an estimated £20 million a year from the opium trade.

The number of Afghans involved in the insurgency has also fallen, with increasing numbers of Pakistanis, Chechens, Uzbeks and Arabs found dead on the battlefield.

However, with the shortage of helicopters still a problem, most movement is by road and Brig Carleton-Smith warned that British forces must prepare for an increasingly Iraq-style insurgency as the Taliban modified its tactics from pitched battles to ambushes and roadside bombs.

[The Reaper]

http://www.unionleader.com/article.a...d-5fae7c7b245a

al-Qaida on ropes: Bin Laden is losing

14 hours, 58 minutes ago

CIA Director Michael Hayden said last week that al-Qaida is losing its war on the West. Skeptics who don't trust any information that emerges from the lips of a Bush administration official do not have to take Hayden's word to believe the truth of his assessment. The evidence is everywhere.

In a Washington Post interview last week, Hayden presented our successes in the War on Terror this way: "Near strategic defeat of al-Qaida in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaida globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam."

That might sound like Bush administration puffery. But days earlier, two New York University researchers wrote a strikingly similar appraisal in the liberal magazine The New Republic.

"According to Pew polls, support for Al Qaeda has been dropping around the Muslim world in recent years," wrote Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank. "The numbers supporting suicide bombings in Indonesia, Lebanon, and Bangladesh, for instance, have dropped by half or more in the last five years. In Saudi Arabia, only 10 percent now have a favorable view of Al Qaeda, according to a December poll by Terror Free Tomorrow, a Washington-based think tank. Following a wave of suicide attacks in Pakistan in the past year, support for suicide operations amongst Pakistanis has dropped to 9 percent (it was 33 percent five years ago), while favorable views of bin Laden in the North West Frontier Province of Pakistan, around where he is believed to be hiding, have plummeted to 4 percent from 70 percent since August 2007."

On Thursday U.S. commanders announced that Iraq's Diyala province, once a stronghold for al-Qaida in Iraq, was under U.S. and Iraqi control.

On May 24 U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker said al-Qaida in Iraq was closer to defeat than it has ever been. In mid-May, terrorist attacks in Iraq fell to their lowest level since March 2004.

The evidence worldwide strongly suggests that al-Qaida has been decimated by a combination of aggressive action by the United States and its allies and the terrorist organization's own horrific acts. Not only are ordinary Muslims turning against terrorism in droves, but former al-Qaida supporters and trainees have taken to denouncing the group for murdering innocents, especially Muslim ones.

Still, Hayden cautions against complacency.

"The fact that we have kept [Americans] safe for pushing seven years now has got them back into the state of mind where 'safe' is normal," he said. "Our view is: Safe is hard-won, every 24 hours."

That's a good way to look at this war, which President Bush said from the start would be long and arduous. It isn't over yet, but the evidence shows that so far we are doing better than the enemy.

[The Reaper]

http://corner.nationalreview.com/pos...jAyYWIwYTQ0ZGE

Sunday, June 01, 2008

Iraq and the General War on Terror [Victor Davis Hanson]

How odd (or to be expected) that suddenly intelligence agencies, analysts, journalists, and terrorists themselves are attesting that al-Qaeda is in near ruins, that ideologically radical Islam is losing its appeal, and that terrorist incidents against Americans at home and abroad outside the war zones are at an all-time low—and yet few associate the radical change in fortune in Iraq as a contributory cause to our success.

But surely the US military contributed a great deal to the humiliation of al-Qaedists and the bankruptcy of their cause, since it has (1) killed thousands of generic jihadists, and to such a degree that the former Middle East romance of going to Iraq to fight the weak crusaders is now synonymous with a death sentence and defeat; (2) provided the window of security necessary for the growing confidence of the Maliki government whose success is absolutely destroying the Islamist canard that the U.S. backs only dictatorships. Indeed, al-Qaeda's greatest fear is successful Arab constitutional government; something still caricatured here at home as a neocon pipe dream.

In addition, the grotesque tactics that al-Qaeda in duress developed in Iraq weakened its case throughout the Middle East; while the Americans learned just the opposite lesson under Gen. Petraeus—how to win hearts and mind while mastering the elements of counter-insurgency. In contrast, the terrorists learned how to lose a war while alienating the Muslim population.

I would expect the Maliki government to gain greater respect abroad, and maybe it will cease to be the punching bag here at home, given its recent accomplishments—made possible by the efforts of the U.S. military. There is an odd feeling that the more books come out damning the Iraq war, and the more politicians write it off as a fiasco, the more Iraqis are showing the world that a constitutional government can survive the enormous odds set against it. Final note. I think this May may have been the lowest month for American military fatalities (19) since the war started in March 2003.

06/01 05:47 PM

[smp52]

Edit: Not a direct success story, but definitely a desired result of our efforts in GWOT and considering that the Deobandi school's students have been major participants in terrorism, this is good news.

Seminary (Darool-Uloom Deoband) issues fatwa against terrorism. [Reuters]

By Bappa Majumdar

NEW DELHI (Reuters) - An ultra conservative Muslim seminary in India, which is said to have inspired the Taliban, issued a fatwa, or edict, against terrorism during a meeting attended by thousands of clerics and students.

The Darool-Uloom Deoband, a 150-year-old institute controlling thousands of smaller Islamic seminaries in India, vowed late on Saturday in New Delhi to wipe out terrorism, a senior rector said.

"Islam rejects all kinds of unjust violence, breach of peace, bloodshed, murder and plunder and does not allow it in any form," rector Habibur Rehman said.

Teachings of the Deoband school and its strict interpretation of Islamic law have spread to many countries, including Britain and Afghanistan.

But Deoband has always denied any connection with the Taliban and many experts describe the Taliban as their "naughty children," who twisted their ideology.

Muslims make up about 13 percent of India's officially secular but predominantly Hindu population -- giving it the third largest Islamic population after Indonesia and Pakistan.

Analysts described the meeting and fatwa as a significant step towards addressing terrorism and bringing relief to India's 140 million Muslims, who feel the acts of some individuals were tarnishing the image of the community as a whole.

During the rally, thousands of clerics and students wearing white skull caps and spotless tunics cheered as Rehman read out a statement: "The religion of Islam has come to wipe out all kinds of terrorism and to spread the message of global peace."

Senior clerics chanted slogans against terrorism, and many held placards that said "Islam means peace" and "terrorism is an enemy, finish it". Leaders asked those gathered to pledge to fight terror in all forms, witnesses said.

Pran Chopra, a political analyst, told Reuters: "It is an awakening among them (Muslim groups) to the dangers that face them as a fallout of terrorism and suspected association of terrorism with Muslims."

"The response by the Muslim population ... has been worth noticing and the fatwa is a very welcome development," Chopra said.

Religious leaders from different faiths and political parties voiced support for Deoband's position.

"Deoband's stand against terrorism will help us fight against it," Ravi Shankar Prasad, spokesman for India's main opposition Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), said in New Delhi on Sunday.

BJP President Rajnath Singh said: "I welcome this, Deoband is seeking to disassociate Muslims from terrorism."

Indian Muslims have been implicated in bomb attacks in India in 2006 and a failed attack in Britain last year.

Last month, a group calling itself "Indian Mujahideen" claimed responsibility for a blast that killed 65 people in Rajasthan state. The same group also criticized Muslim organizations in an email sent to media houses last month.

Analysts say such threats were not making any impact as more and more religious groups were openly denouncing terrorism.

(Additional reporting by Nigam Prusty, editing by Mary Gabriel)

NOTE:Another article verifying similar information though the US and Israel were criticized for it's foreign policy at the rally.

[Pete]

http://baghdadbureau.blogs.nytimes.c...from-syria/?hp

On those returning home.

[JCasp]

Originally Posted by Pete

http://baghdadbureau.blogs.nytimes.c...from-syria/?hp

On those returning home.

That was a great story! Hopefully we could get 200 or so Diggs on it and see it hit the Digg front page, it would be fantastic to get the word out, even if only a few people believe it while the radicals pass it off as propaganda (even though its out of the NYTimes, heh).

[JJ_BPK]

Originally Posted by Pete

http://baghdadbureau.blogs.nytimes.c...from-syria/?hp

returning home

This is a nice change,, and from the NYT..

I just sent it to everyone on my email list,, we need more positive news..

[The Reaper]

New York Post
June 9, 2008

Eat Crow, Iraq War Skeptics

By Arthur Herman

America has won, or is about to win, the Iraq war.

The latest proof came last month, as the Iraqi army - just a few months ago the target of scorn and abuse from Democratic politicians and journalists - forcefully reoccupied three cities that had served as key insurgency bases (Basra, Sadr City and Mosul).

Sunnis and Shias alike applauded as their nation's army compelled insurgent militias to lay down their arms. The country's leading opposition newspaper, Azzaman, led the applause for the move into Mosul - a sign that national reconciliation in Iraq is under way and probably irreversible.

US combat deaths in May also were down to 20, the lowest monthly total since February 2004. The toll for May 2007 was 121.

In a Washington Post interview, CIA Director Michael Hayden said we're witnessing the "near strategic defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq."

The Bush administration has taken heaps of abuse for its Iraq policy, including its decision to launch the "surge" last December. Now the strategy, which our nation's "best and brightest" regularly dismissed as a failure, has cleared the way for the establishment of a secure democracy in Iraq and a lasting peace.

It would be foolish to pop open the victory champagne yet. The truce between the Shia and Sunni in Iraq remains fragile; al Qaeda may well launch one more last-ditch offensive there (a la Tet 1968), in order to discourage the US and/or Iraq publics on the eve of the elections.

Meanwhile, we're still fighting a vicious insurgency in Afghanistan, and have yet to root out the al Qaeda remnants of along the Afghan-Pakistan border. And the continued threat of home-grown terror cells keeps European governments nervous.

In wars, however, trends have their own momentum. And the trend is running away from al Qaeda and its jihadist allies - not only in Iraq but also across the Middle East.

According to Hayden, al Qaeda faces a similar strategic debacle in Saudi Arabia.

And al Qaeda's fugitive leadership is learning that its former safe haven along the Afghan-Pakistan border is no longer so safe. Thanks to cooperation with Pakistan's new government, unmanned US Predator drones recently killed two top al Qaeda leaders there.

Once Gen. David Petraeus is confirmed as commander of US forces in the Middle East in July, he'll be able to apply the same strategy for victory learned in the Iraq surge to the war in Afghanistan.

In short, the larger War on Terror may be reaching a tipping point similar to that of the Iraq war.

The US public and policymakers need to recognize how this happened - and draw lessons from this success.

1) We need to acknowledge that the Iraq war wasn't a "distraction" from the War on Terror, as critics still complain, but its centerpiece.

It's not mere coincidence that our success against al Qaeda globally comes along with success in Iraq. For all its setbacks and frustrations, the Iraq war drew jihadists into a battle they thought they could win, because it would be fought on their home turf - but which they're now losing disastrously.

2) The US decision to "stay the course" in the Iraq war, which was also widely mocked and criticized, served to thoroughly demoralize the jihadist movement.

From its start in spring 2003, the Iraqi insurgency has been entirely built on the premise that it could use suicide and roadside bombings, sectarian slaughter and the torture and murder of hostages to force America out of the Middle East.

If Democrats had won the White House in 2004, the jihadists might have succeeded.

Instead, America doggedly refused to give in to terror, despite 4,000 combat deaths and massive antiwar sentiment, and unwaveringly supported an Iraqi government that was at times feeble and confused - and proceeded to break the jihadist movement's back.

In that interview, the CIA's Hayden also that al Qaeda is no longer able to use the Iraq war as a way to draw in new recruits. The reason is clear: If you go to Iraq to fight the American infidel you will die, and die for nothing.

3) Finally, the Bush administration's success in Iraq, and growing success in the War on Terror, offers a powerful object lesson in how to deal with the continuing threat from Iran.

Iran remains the most lethal state sponsor of terrorism, fomenting proxy wars in Lebanon and Gaza, and in Iraq itself. Its nuclear-weapons program proceeds despite minor sanctions and endless international efforts at engagement.

Now the Bush administration has shown the way for the next president. Instead of trying to "understand" the enemy, disrupt and defeat his plans. Instead of listening to domestic critics, act in the nation's best interests. Instead of relying on multilateral support to decide what to do, go it alone if necessary.

Instead of worrying about an exit strategy, realize that there's no substitute for winning.

Arthur Herman is the author of "Gandhi and Churchill: The Epic Rivalry That Destroyed an Empire and Forged Our Age," just published by Bantam.