UK fears Falkland Island invasion by Russia-backed Argentina

[mojaveman]

All I can say is wow. Here we go again over 30 years later but with Vladimir Putin orchestrating the entire affair.

http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/...ail/story.html

[mojaveman]

Originally Posted by Brush Okie

The issue is not getting the troops there. The real problem is the logistical support. They almost lost the war in 1983, it was a close call.

That and the fact that they undertook that operation with very little air cover for their ships.

[PRB]

That would be a smart Putin move....comes down to the will to fight/survive and proving the west is weak thru a client state is a good Commie move.
That's how you sway opinions in the Ukraine and Baltic states to accept Russian 'protection'......
Putin doesn't want a stand up fight...he thinks he can out bluff us, break our political will....with this admin he has had a look at the cards.

[Team Sergeant]

And Argentina's "president" could use a very serious "Wag the Dog" right about now.....

But they should also know that the USA will stand by the Brits, or will we?

And I agree an excellent move by Putin......

I seriously doubt the muslim in the White House would aid Britain in that fight.

[Box]

....with this admin he has had a look at the cards

Yes indeed he did...

President Obama: This is my last election. After my election I have more flexibility.

President Medvedev: I understand. I will transmit this information to Vladimir.

I'd say comrade Vladimir got one HELL of a good look at the cards.

[mark46th]

Yeah, Billy, I agree. Now is the best time for a move like this. Obama would leave the Brits hanging in the wind. Plus it would be a great distraction, allowing Putin to finish off the Ukraine or start something in the Baltic States....

[MR2]

Fundamentally transform...

[Jgood]

The man is a genius. Look at what is going on in Europe, just moved troops into
Kaliningrad which just happens to be right next to Latvia, Estonia and Nato's back door.

[Remington Raidr]

Whole lotta flexibility going on.

[RomanCandle]

How Did Putin get inserted into that story? Story sourced from the Sun of all places but still with no mention of Putin? Unless he was edited out before I read it.

Next he'll be on page 3 of the Sun and maybe under the bed or in the closet too.

The Argies would be nuts to even consider it seriously. Putin would be even more stupid to back it. I would bet against it.

I found this regarding lease of SU 24 long range bombers to Argentina. That alone would hardly provide the capability to mount an invasion. They would be vulnerable to RAF Typhoons and Rapier Ground to Air systems. Even if Argentina were to acquire Gripen fighters the nearest airbase being Rio Grand is around 700km from the Falklands with the Gripen being a short range fighter +/- 800km CR. Not an ideal platform for flying top cover.

More like the Argentinians want to appear to strengthen to drive home a point of diplomacy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Russians.html

[Flagg]

I would be thinking IF the Argentines retook the Falklands, the UK doesn't possess the force projection capability to retake the islands.

I think the key point is what the Falkland Islander's want....which is a strong association with the UK, and NOT Argentina.

With the current state of the Argentine military(far worse than it was in 1982), I reckon the only way they'd be able to project force onto the Falklands is by commercial airliner.

Russian SU24s and/or Venezuelan SU27s could be a problem.

[Jgood]

Originally Posted by RomanCandle

ALL

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...-Russians.html

What would you consider the move then? Putin even mentioning a deal serves as a warning not only to the UK but the United States. He is expanding his military reach and flexing muscle. Do you think those 12 planes come by themselves? No, they come with advisors and support that will allow joint exchanges and development of the AO. Which happens to be very close to other South American countries who are pretty unstable. Nothing Russia does right now is done without thinking about how to benefit from the 2nd and 3rd order of effects. And if you don't think so, I would check under your bed.

[Flagg]

Originally Posted by Jgood

What would you consider the move then? Putin even mentioning a deal serves as a warning not only to the UK but the United States. He is expanding his military reach and flexing muscle. Do you think those 12 planes come by themselves? No, they come with advisors and support that will allow joint exchanges and development of the AO. Which happens to be very close to other South American countries who are pretty unstable. Nothing Russia does right now is done without thinking about how to benefit from the 2nd and 3rd order of effects. And if you don't think so, I would check under your bed.

As I understand it, Putin has some very tight relationships with aligned oligarchs(whereas the unaligned ones flee to UK, get thrown in jail, or get a Polonium powered enema).

And it would appear there's quite close ties with aligned paramilitary outfits that are semi-independant(but reliant) or just pretend arms length "PMCs".

It leaves me wondering how Putin and the Russian state's relaitonship with russian organized crime is developing?

I've read about how ethnic Russian organized criminal organizations are amongst the most capable in the world stemming from post-Soviet collapse and high levels of education and military training of these groups conducting illicit activity.

I wonder if Putin's Russia will develop aggressive relationships with ethnic Russian organized criminals around the world, much as done by the Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact by extention with the likes of Carlos the Jackel, Baader-Meinhoff, and RAF?

Iran > Qods Force > Hezbullah > Lebanese criminal gangs conducting illicit activity

China > MSS > water army > triads and expat networks

Russia > FSB/GRU > arms length paramilitary proxies > ethnic Russian gangs

???

What is the counter strategy? Los Pepes? Gladio? Counter-Guerilla?

[RomanCandle]

Originally Posted by Jgood

What would you consider the move then? Putin even mentioning a deal serves as a warning not only to the UK but the United States. He is expanding his military reach and flexing muscle. Do you think those 12 planes come by themselves? No, they come with advisors and support that will allow joint exchanges and development of the AO. Which happens to be very close to other South American countries who are pretty unstable. Nothing Russia does right now is done without thinking about how to benefit from the 2nd and 3rd order of effects. And if you don't think so, I would check under your bed.

Yes you are right. There is not a country in existence with any sort of capability that is not jostling for a position on the world stage. Clearly Russia wants to re-establish themselves as a world power and counter the influence and encroachment of NATO in their own back yard. They see a policy of Russian containment conducted by the US. Of course they will be establishing military and economic ties as much as they can, with whoever they can. Do they have a right to do so? I suppose as much as anyone else. They made a huge mistake by relying almost totally on oil and gas exports and realise that they need to diversify in an environment which they have found increasingly hostile.

A lot has unfolded on the world stage since the fall of the USSR to cause people not to think that domination by any one power is desirable. Neither a world controlled by an oligarchy of Russians nor Americans. I also wouldn't expect to see the rise of a new Soviet Empire. Sorry I just don't see that. There are others that are far more expansive and invasive than the Russians but then I guess their designs are purely altruistic.

It simply appears that there are a lot of fights being picked but very little follow through and a lot of untidy loose ends. Over the last 15 years the world definitely hasn't become a better place because of it.

As an aside thought: We in the west consider ourselves the winners of the cold war. The Soviets would have been aware that economic political and social isolation was not sustainable. What happened in western universities during the cold war, what positions do those graduates hold today and how has society changed in the west as a result? How would that benefit a resurgent Russia wanting to re-establish itself on the world stage.

[twistedsquid]

Any move against The Falklands will be considered a move against the West, IMO. I doubt the Royals and American public will stand for that.