Although the linked document is fairly long the summaries are concise and IMO make for a good read.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Global Forecast 2012
April 11, 2012
http://csis.org/files/publication/12...nal_web-sm.pdf
Excerpts:
Global Forecast 2012 provides a snapshot of CSIS’s collective wisdom on the challenges facing the next administration in the years ahead. Although the focus is on foreign and defense policy, this is a year when our domestic debates are intrinsically tied to long-term success abroad. Failure of the next Administration to recognize the risks and opportunities in both settings will have consequences for years to come.
Washington does not typically focus on objective foreign policy analysis and bipartisan solutions six months before a U.S. Presidential election. Election years by their nature tend to bring out the worst of the partisanship, shrill advocacy, and superficial debate that has come to characterize Americans’ view of the capital. Administrations spend the election run-up trying not to generate unwanted headlines, while opposition parties treat every government action, no matter how small, as a referendum on American power and purpose. In such a hyperbolic environment, strategic thinking and sensible solutions are in short supply.
This campaign season in particular, foreign and defense policy has to date remained largely in the background. This is true for a number of reasons. First, most voters seem to think that electoral success ought to hinge on who will be the best steward of the U.S. economy going forward. Second, one of the main animating issues this cycle is the role of government in American life, something that does not have direct relevance to foreign affairs. And third, the ongoing war in Afghanistan has not become a major campaign issue given the country’s general state of war weariness. When foreign policy issues do arise, such as concern over military confrontation with Iran, they have not sustained the country’s attention. Absent a real crisis, both Republicans and Democrats appear content to make 2012 a “domestic” election.
Of course, Washington’s focus on domestic issues does not mean that challenges abroad dissipate or disappear. In fact, to take as broad of a brush as possible, the two principal dynamics at play at home and abroad right now are working adversely to U.S. interests: contraction of resources on the home front and rising volatility and complexity of challenges overseas. This does not have to equate to American decline, but it does mean added risk. Every senior national security leader in Washington is struggling with how to allocate the shrinking resources on hand to address an expanding problem set.
The overall challenge for the United States is to make decisions of force posture, diplomatic presence, and economic assistance from a comprehensive, long-term, strategic perspective rather than in an ad hoc manner. Decisions to lower troop levels abroad, scale back collection and analysis capabilities, surrender the diplomatic initiative, or slash foreign aid may be budgetary necessities in this new era, but every action will send a signal overseas that will have consequences. Mapping these risks—and indeed, managing them—will not guarantee a safe and prosperous world, but it will certainly be better than the alternative.
What the reader will find here in the 2012 iteration of Global Forecast is an effort to look ahead after November’s elections to predict what will be the main risks and opportunities facing the next administration, whether a second Obama term or the first for a Republican president. What are the big issues facing our country that leaders from both parties are not sufficiently prepared to address? Where is an entrenched policy consensus blinding us to the possibility of sudden change, unintended consequences, or harmful second order effects? How can the United States better recognize and capitalize on new opportunities that might arise? This small volume is not meant to be comprehensive, but to provide a window into the thinking of CSIS’s exceptional team of experts who are in demand every day by the private sector, our government, and the media.