Very interesting info on the election

[Penn]

This is a link to a story on NPR. It is about real money trades on the election and their predictability of success as a candidate. I thought it fascinating that a market with real money trades existed at all, let alone, that it is more accurate than national opinion polls. Give it a listen at: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...1&f=1001#share
You can check out the candidates current value at: Intrade.com

[SF-TX]

This is interesting, but not surprising. The Bid/Ask price can be 0-100, with the price translating into the probability the event will occur. So, traders of the SEP08 contract rate the chance of Hamas accepting the right of Israel to Exist by 30SEP08 at 4.5%.

Hamas Recognition of Israel (Rule 1.8 Applies)   
Contract					
HAMAS.ISRAEL.JUN08
Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist on/before 30 Jun 2008	M  
Trade
Bid	Ask	Last	Vol	Chge 
-	1.9	1.0	906	0
 
HAMAS.ISRAEL.SEP08
Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist on/before 30 Sep 08	M  
Trade
 Bid	Ask	Last	Vol	Chge
1.1	4.5	2.8	228	0
 
HAMAS.ISRAEL.DEC08
Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist on/before 31 Dec 2008	M  
Trade
 Bid	Ask	Last	Vol	Chge
-	8.2	-	0	0