I feel social media (SM) is not anything close to being the catalyst or spark for any movements. But ICT, which social media networks use as one of there platforms, contributes to these mobilizing of people (or masses) that are apart of these political protest, movement, and revolution in all these countries. Militant/terrorist groups have moved from message/discussion board, websites and thread sites to Social Media (SM) platforms on the internet.They are using these social media networks to hiring new recruits, to spreading “their message," and trying to connect with like-minded individuals through Facebook, Twitter and YouTube apart of their "movement." Just as American youth use FB, Vine, Twitter, SnapTalk and other social media platforms to talk instead of traditional face to face conversations. For me this is a role that social media plays into as a support mechanism. Not the root catalyst behind any political protest, movement, and revolution.
I feel that as a military person you are always looking at “Stuff” as how they affect the Battlefield and how it impacts unit(s). Most will say that anything that is "talked" on the lines of social media is cyber and has nothing to do with the Battlefield. You be the one to answer on that question. But what about the need to study its effects of the different types of social media on your operations/plan within a country. Looking at how a population are using different ICTs and which social networks contribute to become influencer. Yes, looking at what role social media plays (influence) in affecting your “battlefield,” but what effects your Environment can have on your Battlefield. Which could have been apart of political protest, movement, and revolution.
For me, If your country has some kind of movement, or better, in its past had some political protest, movement, and revolution. What different types of social media and internet platforms were used, then study (analysis) them as OSINT. OSINT is a viable information/intelligence and pulls from so many different open sources and then is balanced with other disciplines. As with all disciplines, analyzing social media role within the protects, movement or whatever works off other disciplines to support what the analysis is looking for or obtaining to analyze it to become intelligence for that country.
History shows that the use of the internet through new and different types of social media employed by militant/terrorist group, activism, hacktivism, and cyberterrorist play into how they relate to "movements." Take the Iranian enrichment program example, I would say it was a good recent example of how through OSINT/ open source research on the social media sites (posts) from Iranian dissident groups pointing or discussing the evidence of enrichment sites and other activities. Along with what effects these have on the Environment on your future Battlefield within the country. Using Iran as the example again, most of what was found on Iran, from the nuclear proliferation to the Green Revolution was through internet searches of Iranian government websites, social networks, blog and forums. Was it 100%, no! it never is. It's a balancing act for FUSION cells or analyst. The same goes with terrorist groups use the Internet through social media for radicalization, recruiting, messaging, command and control, and fund rising. So how well do social websites, social networks, blog and forums influence protest, movement, and revolution within a country? History, just like combat and intelligence indicators provide the answer IMO.
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Originally Posted by Peregrino
As for the US using it as an offensive tool - I'm not holding my breath. And that's all I consider social media to be - a tool, another component of a shaping campaign. I've yet to see a modern psyop campaign (outside of commercial marketing or democrat politics) that I considered effective. Not timely, not targeted, and certainly not exploitable for strategic or operational gain.
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As a offensive tool, I don't know right now, but in some cases maybe. Now with it providing information that can be turned into Intelligence comes from Indicators. Which are observable or discernible actions that confirm or deny enemy capabilities and intentions. Ones ability to find and interpret these indicators is OSINT from social media. IMO is no more difficult than any other Intelligence discipline. The ability to find and interpret these SM indicators will directly affect the analysts' predictions of threat intent or there role in a protest, movement, and revolution in a country. It is this key, prediction, which distinguishes from just reporting the facts to assisting the commander in the decision making process. As with Intelligence, it almost always is not timely. But looking at SM and ICT platforms though different Intelligence disciplines can add to your influencing (Kinetic and Non-Kinetic) and it has be proven many times over that it is very exploitable for strategic or operational gain and plans. The hardship part is "assisting the commander in the decision making process," especially when leaders don't know anything about social media.
The whole MISO and CYBERCOM and even band 5 to 7 growth, should consider social media to be a tool, like you said, as a component of a IO shaping campaign for the overall plan. Peregrino you hit it with DoD and the strategic modern campaign by a PHYOPS/MISO Unit that can match any of the commercial marketing. We suck at anything IO by a PHYOPS/MISO. For me, we are missing it badly with new positions we are adding to Group and the revamping for the band 5-7. DoD and SOF need to analyze how the gaming Industry use of social media and how we can use it in exploiting militant/terrorist groups and influencing within a country.